I just updated my running back rankings a couple of days ago but I’m a bit of a nutjob. You never know when the mood will strike me and I’ll redo my rankings. It could be a week or it could be a day but when I feel a change is warranted, I do it. Next week I’ll start breaking down early average draft positions but for now I give you my updated Top 75 running backs.
2012 Fantasy Running Back Rankings
(Last updated on May 5)
1. Arian Foster, Texans
2. LeSean McCoy, Eagles
3. Ray Rice, Ravens
4. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars ↑
5. Chris Johnson, Titans ↑
6. Marshawn Lynch, Seahawks
7. Darren McFadden, Raiders
8. Ryan Mathews, Chargers
9. Trent Richardson, Browns ↑
10. Fred Jackson, Bills
11. Matt Forte, Bears ↓
12. Ahmad Bradshaw, Giants ↑
13. Adrian Peterson, Vikings
14. DeMarco Murray, Cowboys ↑
15. Darren Sproles, Saints
16. Jamaal Charles, Chiefs
17. Steven Jackson, Rams ↓
18. Frank Gore, 49ers ↓
19. Roy Helu, Redskins
20. Michael Turner, Falcons ↓
21. Willis McGahee, Broncos
22. Reggie Bush, Dolphins
23. Beanie Wells, Cardinals
24. BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Bengals
25. Isaac Redman, Steelers
26. Doug Martin, Bucs ↑
27. Shonn Greene, Jets
28. Stevan Ridley, Patriots
29. Jonathan Stewart, Panthers
30. Peyton Hillis, Chiefs
31. James Starks, Packers ↑
32. C.J. Spiller, Bills
33. Mark Ingram, Saints
34. Jahvid Best, Lions
35. Michael Bush, Bears
36. Ronnie Hillman, Broncos ↑
37. Toby Gerhart, Vikings
38. Ben Tate, Texans
39. LeGarrette Blount, Bucs ↓
40. Felix Jones, Cowboys
41. Donald Brown, Colts
42. Jacquizz Rodgers, Falcons
43. Kendall Hunter, 49ers ↑
44. DeAngelo Williams, Panthers ↓
45. Isaiah Pead, Rams ↑
46. Javon Ringer, Titans
47. Daniel Thomas, Dolphins
48. Pierre Thomas, Saints
49. Evan Royster, Redskins
50. Shane Vereen, Patriots ↑
51. Kevin Smith, Lions ↑
52. Bernard Scott, Bengals
53. Jason Snelling, Falcons
54. Mike Tolbert, Panthers
55. Ryan Williams, Cardinals
56. Mike Goodson, Raiders ↑
57. David Wilson, Giants
58. LaMichael James 49ers
59. Rashad Jennings, Jaguars ↑
60. Dion Lewis, Eagles
61. Danny Woodhead, Patriots
62. Curtis Brinkley, Chargers
63. Brandon Jacobs, 49ers ↓
64. Delone Carter, Colts
65. Brandon Saine, Packers ↑
66. Lamar Miller, Dolphins
67. Lance Ball, Broncos
68. Joe McKnight, Jets
69. Le’Ron McClain, Chargers
70. Robert Turbin, Seahawks
71. Chris Ogbonnaya, Browns
72. Rashard Mendenhall, Steelers ↓
73. Knowshon Moreno, Broncos ↓
74. Taiwan Jones, Raiders
75. Terrance Ganaway, Jets
Going Up
Hillman - If I do nothing else on this blog I will make the world believe in Ronnie Hillman. One of my first posts was about Hillman and I’ve been singing his praises ever since. I’m far from always being right but I’ll put my record of finding mid-round talent up against anyone. Three years ago when no one was talking about Eric Decker, I was saying he would be a star. Now he’s on the doorstep. Last year when everyone was bashing the Pats selection of Stevan Ridley, I said he would be their starting running back in two years. A year later, Ridley is in line to start. As much as I liked those two, I’m even higher on Hillman.
I get that a lot of you don’t have a chance to see San Diego State play. That’s why I’m here. Anyone can tell you about the Trent Richardsons of the world but I take pride in letting you know about guys like Decker, Ridley and Hillman. I’m telling you this kid has it all and he landed with the perfect team in Denver. As I’ve already stated many times, Hillman wasn’t just one of the most explosive backs in this draft but he’s also a tough inside runner. A guy at one of the most popular fantasy sites who claims to have “tape” said Hillman dances and loses yards. Where? Show me the tape where he’s always dancing. Let’s sit down and watch the tape together and you show me all the plays where Hillman is losing yards. One of Hillman’s best qualities is he hits the hole hard and DOESN’T lose yards. Be careful where you get your info from about these rookies. When most of these guys talk about ‘tape” they are referring to videos on Yahoo! that anyone can watch. That’s just the truth.
Now Hillman will have to pass protect because with Peyton Manning blocking is as important as running. So that’s something we’ll have to monitor in the preseason but just from a talent perspective, Denver got one of the best backs in this draft. If I’m wrong I’ll be the first to say it and I’ll take any abuse you want to dish out. I’ve never seen a player live, confirmed what I thought about him by watching tape and liked the team that drafted him more than I do with Hillman.
If you only listen to one thing I ever say; listen to me about Hillman. I’ll stake what little reputation I have on him. If Hillman ends up being a bust, I’ll retire. No other fantasy writer has ever offered up that kind of guarantee on a player.
Richardson - Cleveland drafting Richardson was a home run for fantasy owners. When you combine talent with opportunity, Richardson instantly becomes a Top 10 fantasy back in my opinion. There just isn’t anyone else on the Browns roster to seriously threaten Richardson for carries. He won’t get out of Round 2 in most fantasy drafts.
Hillis - The more I think about Hillis the more I like him to have a bounce-back season in 2012. No player can overcome the power of the Madden cover curse. I would never vote for my favorite player to be on that cover. Hillis is 26 and just one year removed from a big season with the Browns. If you’re looking for a mid-round running back with a lot of upside to pounce on, Hillis is your guy.
Rodgers - Michael Turner is winding down and I expect Rogers to be a huge part of Atlanta’s offense this year. With all the checkdowns from Matt Ryan, Rogers could catch 200 balls. Here’s a call: the Falcons saw first-hand what Darren Sproles did for the Saints offense and they will try and do the same thing with Rogers. Right now he’s one of my top sleepers.
Pead - I thought Pead was an excellent selection for the Rams. I believe Pead can be an every-down back in the NFL. He’ll start off as a change-of-pace guy in St. Louis but Steven Jackson is getting older and Pead will be his eventual replacement. If Jackson gets injured, Pead will pay big dividends for fantasy owners. Pead should be one of your top targets in keeper leagues.
Coming Down
Running Backs in General - There are only a few stud running backs that you can really depend on and then you have a bunch of wild cards that share time in some way or another. Plus, I don’t ever remember seeing so many running backs coming off of serious injuries. Add it all up and the position that was once the cornerstone to winning a fantasy title is now the position that offers the least stability. I feel comfortable with the Top 6 running backs. After that there are a lot of question marks.
Greene - Yawn. Wake when this guy has three good runs in a row. Now with Tim Tebow in town, Greene’s goal line carries will decline. The Jets say they want to return to Ground and Pound. Greene better start running like a 230-pound back because bruising rookie Terrance Ganaway is waiting in the wings in show him how it’s done.
Blount – I view Greene and Blount as the same kind of back. I actually think they’re better when they’re not getting all the carries. Think of Marion Barber. Remember how effective he was coming in and running over tired defenses? That’s the role I think suits both Greene and Blount best. Plus, I just get the feeling Greg Schiano doesn’t love Blount. It’s just a gut call. The Bucs will run the ball a lot, so Blount certainly has value, but the drafting of Doug Martin will hurt his overall production. Martin is a great receiver and blocker, two areas where Blount struggles. It’s already being reported that Martin will be the Bucs starting tailback on opening day, so Blount is on the decline and the rookie is now closing in on being a Top 25 fantasy running back.
DeAngelo Williams - Williams was once my favorite back in the NFL and if he were on another team I still think he could be a big fantasy factor. However, with Jonathan Stewart and Mike Tolbert in line for touches and Cam Newton the best goal line runner on the team, Williams isn’t a guy I want on my fantasy squad this year.
LaMichael James - I love James but I think as a rookie he’ll help the 49ers more as a return man and big-play guy than he will fantasy owners. I’ve been saying how James is a vastly underrated runner between the tackles and Jim Harbaugh has already stated he could get some goal line carries. Still, with all the backs in San Fran vying for carries, I’m much higher on James in keeper leagues than re-draft leagues.
Rankings are based on standard scoring systems but account for 1 point per reception because that’s the method I prefer.
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OK, you’ve convinced me - I’m going to target HIllman in all leagues as one of my bench/back-up RB’s. Besides him, there’s a lot of intriguing rookie RB out there that are worth a late rd pick including Pead and Wilson who back-up 2 injury prone starters in SJax and Bradshaw. Throw-in a 20 touch per game starter in Richardson and the new probable starter in TB Doug Martin and this rookie class has a lot of potential difference makers at RB for this upcoming season.
Was in Vegas this weekend and saw AP strutting around the Cosmopolitan with some woman and his posse (including DeShawn Stevenson from the Nets). Obviously a huge difference between walking thru a casino and playing RB in the NFL but the dude looked and walked completely fine. He did not look or act like a guy that was going to start the season on the PUP list. I’m betting right now that he will be a participant in training camp and will be declared healthy and the starter for the regular season opener. AP will slot in around #5 or 6 on most RB draft boards by early August.
I think if you can get Hillman in the 11-12 round area it’s good value. Like we talked about before it depends on where you can get a guy. If someone drafts Hillman in Round 7, well, I’m not getting him then. There are a lot of intriguing rookies this year. I think three or four of them will make a big splash in 2012.
I think Peterson will be fine. Knee injuries are like a bad bruise these days. I’m not being a jerk but I fully believe these guys take HGH to recover quicker, not to get huge. I’m not criticizing it either. If my money was tied to playing football, I would do whatever it took to get back as quickly as possible from an injury. I just think we’re being naive to say it’s natural for Wes Welker to be running four months after tearing an ACL and MCL. These guys take HGH to help recover and then get off it. Most people think that’s how Bonds started but then once he began lifting and getting huge he couldn’t get off the stuff. HGH is not even close to the same thing as steroids and the sooner people stop lumping the two into the same category the better they will understand the differences. HGH is much more valuable to athletes because it vastly increases recovery time from injuries. Not everyone wants to look like Mark McGuire. That’s not why 90% of these guys take the stuff. It’s about injuries and getting older. That’s the biggest benefit of HGH.