Is it August yet? While most people are celebrating the beginning of summer I look at it as we’re just a few months away from preseason football. Astute fantasy owners know the most important thing to look at before drafting is Average Draft Position (ADP). However, I still don’t believe enough fantasy owners overall research ADP before their draft. It’s pretty obvious that if you’re targeting Eric Decker in Round 6 and he’s going two rounds earlier in a majority of drafts, you probably won’t get him. Each draft is its own entity but knowing ADP is essential for all serious fantasy owners.
There are many different sites that track ADP. I mainly use My Fantasy League, Fantasy Football Calculator and Football Guys. If you have another good site, let me know and I’ll check it out. Also, ADP changes by the day, so if I have a guy going in Round 5 on Monday, he could be going in a different round by Wednesday. I’ll hit all the positions this week looking at who is being undervalued and overvalued, starting with quarterbacks.
Here’s a look where the Top 20 quarterbacks are being selected on average as of May 7 in a 12-team league:
Round 1
Aaron Rodgers, Packers (4)
Drew Brees, Saints (11)
Tom Brady, Patriots (12)
Round 2
Cam Newton, Panthers (14)
Matthew Stafford, Lions (15)
Round 4
Mike Vick, Eagles (48)
Round 5
Eli Manning, Giants (59)
Round 6
Tony Romo, Cowboys (67)
Philip Rivers, Chargers (70)
Peyton Manning, Broncos (72)
Round 7
Matt Ryan, Falcons (74)
Round 8
Robert Griffin III, Redskins (86)
Round 9
Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers (97)
Matt Schaub, Texans (102)
Round 10
Jay Cutler, Bears (110)
Andrew Luck, Colts (116)
Round 11
Andy Dalton, Bengals (124)
Josh Freeman, Bucs (131)
Round 12
Sam Bradford, Rams (142)
Round 13
Carson Palmer, Raiders (150)
Overvalued
Schaub - Where Schaub is being drafted he’s going in that backup quarterback range and I don’t mind him as a fantasy backup. Still, this Houston team is built a lot differently than it was a couple of years ago. The Texans are now a Top 5 NFL team in terms of rushing and defense. In the past Schaub was counted on to win games for the Texans but that’s no longer the case. I don’t see Houston being all that different from the Ravens. Both teams beat you by running the ball and playing good defense most weeks. Schaub used to pad his touchdown stats by throwing near the goal line when Houston had so much trouble running the ball in the red zone. That’s no longer a problem with Arian Foster. The Texans now pretty much run the ball exclusively once they get inside the 5-yard line. Toss in that Schaub is coming off a serious foot injury and I see a guy that’s going to be asked to be more of a game manager. If you’re depending on Schaub to be your starting fantasy quarterback this year, I think you’re in trouble.
Griffin - I like Griffin and I expect him to have fantasy value right off the bat but I don’t know if I want the success of my fantasy team riding on it. Not every rookie is going to be Cam Newton. Newton is a special player. He came in and blew up the league from Week 1. I see Griffin being a good fantasy quarterback but I wouldn’t draft him with guys like Roethlisberger and Cutler still on the board. I like both of them to have big seasons and if I have a chance to take a veteran I’m projecting to have a good year, I’ll always take them over a rookie with potential. I’m nitpicking a little but the fact that Griffin is going almost a full round before Roethlisberger is the main reason I say he’s a little overvalued right now.
Undervalued
Rivers - I was hoping Rivers would be undervalued this season and so far that’s exactly what’s happening. When a player has an off year I look at it to see if it’s becoming the norm or if it’s an aberration. I believe 2011 was an aberration for Rivers. The Chargers keep telling us he wasn’t hurt but I watched Rivers closely from mid-season on and he simply wasn’t getting much on his throws. That raises a red flag with me considering Rivers has always thrown with good velocity. I’m not concerned with the Chargers losing Vincent Jackson either. I believe Robert Meachem can do the same thing Jackson did; which is run fly routes most of the time. The running game looks good on paper with Ryan Mathews but he’s hardly the most durable player in the NFL. I see people getting a steal with Rivers. If I think I can draft Rivers in the fifth or sixth round, I’ll jump all over him. Two years ago I waited to draft Rivers in Round 4 and he led the NFL in passing yards. Like I said, last year was the aberration, not the norm when it comes to Rivers.
Roethlisberger - I don’t expect Big Ben to go in Round 9 on average once we get closer to the start of the season. Roethlisberger played through a lot of injuries last year. One of the negatives to being such a tough guy is you play when you probably shouldn’t. Look at the situation in Pittsburgh. The Steelers improved their offensive line, starting running back Rashard Mendenhall will likely miss at least half of the season and Pittsburgh has three very good receivers in Antonio Brown, Mike Wallace and Emmanuel Sanders. Add that all up and getting Big Ben as the 13th quarterback off the board is robbery.
Cutler - Speaking of robbery, people are vastly undervaluing Cutler right now. As I’ve stated before I believe Cutler was playing some of the best football of his career before getting injured last year. Now you add Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery at receiver to go along with Earl Bennett and Johnny Knox and to me that equals a big fantasy season for Cutler. I like this Bears squad overall. I think they have a good mix of players on both offense and defense. I have Cutler ranked as a Top 12 fantasy quarterback, so getting him to be your backup in the tenth or eleventh round represents great value in my opinion.
Jake Locker, Titans - Locker is being drafted on average in Round 13 or 14 right now. That will obviously change a little if Locker officially wins the starting job in Tennessee. If Locker is indeed named the starter, I would target him in the tenth round area as a backup. Locker has a bevy of quality targets in Tennessee and his ability to run adds to his fantasy value. I would make Locker one of your top targets as a backup assuming he’s the Titans starting quarterback this season.
Overall Thoughts
We can already see the tiers starting to develop. The Top 5 are being drafted by the end of Round 2 and then there’s a little break before the next group of Vick, Eli, Romo, Rivers and Peyton are being selected between the fourth and sixth rounds. So in a 12-team league the Top 10 quarterbacks are off the board by Round 7. What a difference a few years makes. Not only are 10 quarterbacks being drafted in the first six rounds but three are now going in Round 1 alone. Five years ago that was unheard of in fantasy football. Again, I can see securing one of the studs but I also really like the value from the sixth round on. Getting guys like Romo, Rivers, Peyton, Big Ben or Cutler after building your squad at other positions first is tempting. If I’m picking at the end of Round 1 I’ll look at Newton but assuming these averages are similar come August, it’s more likely I’ll wait and grab Rivers or Roethlisberger instead.
If these ADP trends hold, I can’t see myself not waiting on a QB this year, possibly even the last team to draft their starter.
I know you’re not a huge fan of Ryan but doesn’t he have the arm strength to make all the necessary throws? After showcasing their plodding offense and getting blown-out the last 2 years in the playoffs, don’t you think ATL is ready to open up the offense this season? We all agree that Turner is slowing down and Ryan will have a lot of weapons in the pass game (Roddy, Julio, Tony G, Douglas, and Jacquiz). I never like to underestimate how moronic these NFL HC can be but I can’t see Mike Smith not pressing the OC to implement more aggressive passing and play calling this season. This would obviously boost Ryan’s value. I would be just fine with a QB combo of 2 out of Ryan/Big Ben/Cutler.
It’s not that I’m totally against having Ryan as your starter. What I am against is having him and no one else. If you draft Ryan, you can’t have Alex Smith as a backup. I really liked Sam Bradford last year but I told people if you wait on a guy like that, don’t wait on getting another QB. If you draft Aaron Rodgers you basically need another QB for one week. I would say if you draft Ryan just grab a Cutler or maybe a Jake Locker so you can play matchups. In my opinion you can win with Ryan as a matchup QB but if I went that route and got Ryan in Round 8, I would also draft Cutler two or three rounds later as insurance.
And I also agree on waiting for a QB. I would be giddy to get a Rivers in Round 6 or a Big Ben in Round 8 and then follow it up with a Locker. I believe that’s a good enough combination to win a title. Oh, and if Locker is a stud you’ll get full credit. I liked him but you really made me look into him further. Thanks for that one. Now hopefully he’ll win the starting job.
one of the benefits of having a top guy is that you don’t have to play the weekly matchup game…(easily my biggest fantasy weakness)…while a combo of 2 of the above may look nice, it also looks like a weekly nightmare…not having to play that weekly matchup game is worth something to me…this has become a QB league and a get after the QB league…so while it seems crazy to get a stud early I think it has some merit…last year there were probably some people that would have been happy with some type of combo that included Freeman…..that probably did not work out real well….your bona fid studs have an increased value in today’s fantasy world IMO…I think one of the benefits of being a fantasy “shark” so to speak in your leagues is that you should be able to maybe take a stud QB early (which can keep you in it most weeks sometimes by themselves) and then dominate the rest of your draft by snagging the value at the other core positions and win them by snagging guys like Hillman or whatever….I like having a stud QB and then just kill it for the rest of the draft during those rounds while everybody else is wasting a couple of their first 10 picks fighting each other to get that sweet looking QB combo….to me stud QB’s may be the safest 1st or 2nd round picks, just ask any Andre Johnson owners from last year if they would have rather taken a Brees/Rodgers/Brady/Stafford, etc…
Schaub: HOU lost some key parts of that offensive line that helped them have such a dominating running game….I have a feeling they may need to pass a little more than people think this year…
You make a strong argument Ref but if you think a guy like Rivers will be elite then it may make sense to wait. Personally, I can see Rivers being a Top 5 fantasy QB again. On the other hand I agree about the matchup nightmares. When people e-mail me after starting 0-3 or 0-4 it’s almost always because they have trouble at QB and are playing matchups. I think you can win with Rivers or Big Ben as your fantasy QB. In my opinion both guys will bounce back from down years. However, if your plan is to rotate guys you better hope you hit on one or like you said, you will be dealing with a headache all season. If you look at last year four of the quarterbacks people waited to get were Stafford, Eli, Bradford and Kolb. Two of those hit and two of those busted. I think it all comes down to how the draft goes. If I’m sitting in the mid-second like I was last year and a Tom Brady is still on the board, I’ll draft him. On the other hand if I’m at 12/13 and I can get Fitzgerald and Chris Johnson, I may do that and target Rivers three rounds later. Both strategies have merit and each can win you a title, you just have to hope you hit on the right guys. I can’t argue with grabbing a stud early though. I traded Brady in Week 2 for Brees and having him in my lineup every week was a great feeling.
The only thing I really disagree with is Schaub. If you look at all the touchdowns guys like Rodgers, Brees, Cam or Brady get, a lot come inside the 10-yard line. The Texans are always going to run the ball close to the goal line and they should. They have the best red zone runner in the NFL. I think that will really hurt Schaub’s overall production and push him into the backup category. One of the things that makes elite fantasy quarterbacks elite is they throw the ball from the 2-yard line. Brees did that all the time last year and it was great as a fantasy owners. I don’t see Schaub getting a lot of those cheapies to pad his stats. Foster is too good near the goal line.
The only flaw with this approach is that every year there is at least 1 middle and/or late round fantasy drafted QB that goes on to post monster #’s - usually at least 1 guys breaks in to the top 5. I went into greater detail on this in a previous QB Ranking post comments section (not sure if it’s still up on the site). Newton and Stafford this past season are the latest examples. The top 5 last season were Rodgers, Brees, Brady, Newton, Stafford and then a significant drop off to #6 Eli. To me, Rodgers and Brady seem very safe for this season and I would strongly consider them in the 1st rd. Brees had a record-breaking year and the price seems too high based on expecting last year’s stats. Factor in all of the drama surrounding his contract situation and the Saints bounty scandal fiasco and I wouldn’t be surprised if Brees’ numbers regressed substantially.
Anyway, I guess my point is that there is clearly an opportunity to draft or pick-up off the waiver wire (i.e. Vick in 2010) an impact QB late, maybe more so than at any other position.
I too am convinced that Rivers was hurt last season. I don’t like the guy but he is good and he doesn’t throw that many picks unless something is seriously wrong. My only concern with him is: has his injury been disclosed? did he get surgery for it? what time table can we expect for him to be back to his old self?
Last year with everyone, even Peyton, saying it was a lock that he would be back to start the season I made the mistake of picking him up in round 2 thinking I just got a steal. Luckily for me I also picked up Big Ben and then Andy Dalton when I was able to dump Peyton.
What if whatever Rivers had is semi serious and it takes him a while to be back in Rivers shape?
That’s a good point Manuel but I tend to think Rivers had more of a nagging injury. It’s impossible in this day and age to hide a serious injury. As someone who has worked in the NFL media too many players talk to reporters behind the scenes. Sooner or later I think it would have gotten out. I heard from someone that he sprained his knee at some point early in the year and it effected him at times when he planted to throw. I have no proof and don’t know if it’s true, it’s just what I heard. However, I think something like that makes more sense. I would advise watching him closely in the preseason. See if that velocity has returned. There were times last year he would throw a ball and it had absolutely nothing on it at all. That’s something I’ll be monitoring closely this summer myself.
don’t get me wrong…Schaub won’t be on any of my fantasy teams either….I just think there may be a little bit of a decline in the running game because of what they lost on the oline…which would then maybe mean they lean a little more on the passing game than the have the last couple of years…could be totally wrong and maybe Foster/Tate don’t miss a beat, but it’s something to keep an eye on….
Their line will be a big story early on in the year. I agree that when teams lose linemen it’s vastly underrated. If you look throughout history though, a lot of fantasy bust first round running backs came about because of either injury or transition in the offensive line, so it’s certainly something to watch closely in the preseason and early on in the year. I was surprised Houston didn’t do more this offseason to help offset those losses.
I got burned on Rivers last year, thought he was going to go bonkers. I’m really interested to know if it looks like he’s back to his old self this preseason, because i see what you’re saying, could be some value there. But lets assume for the sake of argument he is, and finishes 2012 top 5, and say you picked him up safely early round 5. I still think, for the year, that he’s 100fpts off the pace of the top three, so is it worth it, to get started on the innards of your team one round sooner, than the manager who secured a passer in round 1? On one hand i see so many stud QB’s i think wait, but on the other it seems like if you wait, you better make sure you hit on your first 2-3 picks, to make it all come together, and if you don’t, like i didn’t last year drafting Charles and McFadden 1 and 2, you’re gonna be screwed.
Well, i would have been, if i hadn’t picked up Cam 5 seconds after he hit 400 passing yards his first game, ha. But that was a rare wire find IMO.
Yes, that is a very rare find. We can’t assume Cam Newton will be on the waiver wire every year. I hear what you’re saying about Rivers but that’s the trade off of selecting Rodgers, Brady or Brees. Those guys are by far the safest plays. They are as close to locks as there is to have big seasons. So that’s what we have to weigh; do we grab one and sleep tight or do we wait and get a Romo, Vick or Rivers? That’s what makes fantasy football so much fun. We’ll spend the next four months discussing the pros and cons of each method. Back when we didn’t draft quarterbacks so high I used to say the safest pick on the board was Peyton Manning. If this was four years ago he would go Top 5 easy.
I think the play this year is drafting Rivers with mid round pick, and backing him up with Cutler as a late round pick. At least it looks good on paper.
By my thinking Dan, that is sound strategy and I think you will be happy with that duo at quarterback this year.
I think you can you can always find a suitable QB (obviously this changes with certain scoring systems) late or on the waiver wire. Cam in 2011 was mostly a WW pick up or late round flyer, Vick was a WW pick up in 2010. There will always be a Josh Freeman 2010, Andy Dalton 2011 type player that comes out of no where to be a serviceable, consistent starter. My QB combos last year were Stafford/Freeman and Romo/Fitzpatrick. I ended up dropping Freeman/Fitzpatrick for Tebow in both leagues, who was a quality starting QB from the waiver wire in most formats.
One of my favorite draft moments ever was right at the start of our 2008 draft. I got the #1 overall pick and right around RD5 or so, I got a text message that Kurt Warner was named the starter in AZ. I knew that no one else would know that and so I passed on all QB’s. I took a kicker and DST in the 14/15 and going into the last pick of the entire draft, I took Mr. Warner. He finished as the #5 QB.
Some say that taking a QB in the early rounds is “safe”, I beg to differ. I see a better chance of finding a top 5 guy at the QB position in the mid-late rounds than is possible at WR/RB.
It’s all a personal preference, and I prefer to take “safe” picks in the mid-late rounds by getting my QB’s while others are taking some risky RB/WR’s.
By safe I think we are mainly talking about Rodgers and Brady as being safe. Really, only injury can stop those two. When you combine their skill level, with their coaching staffs and the rules in the NFL today, it’s hard for those two to not put up strong numbers. But can Cam be a bust? Yes. Can Stafford? Yes. There is always risk at any position. Safe to me means least risk. I would probably put maybe seven players in the category of low risk and it’s no surprise that they are going in Round 1.
There will always be a debate about quarterbacks. The bottom line is last year some people won by drafting Drew Brees early and others won by getting Cam off the waiver wire like you said. The best fantasy players usually have a chance to win at the end. That’s what I’ve always believed. They may get upset in the playoffs because the playoffs are a bit of a crapshoot but if you play well overall, you should have a shot to win it in the end. You can’t just draft Aaron Rodgers and win. If you play like garbage you’ll have a great QB and a 3-8 record. So again, there are many different ways to get to the trophy. It all depends on what route you are most comfortable with on draft day and like I always say, the season is a lot more than just the draft. That’s just the first step. That’s a funny story about Warner. Thanks for sharing and for the feedback.
Just my two cents comments on some of the things above with redraft head to head leagues in mind:
QB’s: the top 5 guys (Rodgers, Brady, Brees, Newton, Stafford) are the kind of guys that are going to give you monster numbers fairly consistently. Numbers that put you ahead of your competition right off the bat, or at least keep you in the game if you are going up against one of the other four. To me these guys are the safe picks in the early rounds that give you an immediate edge. In addition, while not always the case, it is pretty safe to say that their risk of injury is a little lower than that of a RB or WR, which when you are burning a top pick is possibly something to factor in. I don’t necessarily draft thinking about injuries, but the nature of the game just kind of indicates that Adrian Peterson probably has a little higher chance of getting hurt than Aaron Rodgers. Something to think about when you get ready to pull the trigger on that early pick.
While all drafts, scoring systems, and lineup requirements are different, one thing is constant and that is the principle behind value based drafting. I used to be all about the stud RB theory, etc. I made a killing at it back in the day. But the game has changed and sometimes you have to adjust. It has been hard, because my natural instinct is to still load up at RB. The change: what I want to do is grab a guy I know is going to keep me in the mix each week, and then rely on the fact that I do my “homework” better than the other 11 guys in the room. While they are fighting over those sweet QB combos in the still early/mid early rounds, I already have my stud on board that will probably kick their QB combo’s butt anyway and then I will snag value as it drops to me for the rest of the draft. There is a reason I am here in May listening to someone pimp the Ronnie Hillman’s of the world (love the approach of this site). While the internet and cheat sheets everywhere have closed the gap between the fantasy shark and the average fantasy football player, there is still something to be said for assembling a draft sheet that has Eric Decker and Ronnie Hillman ranked a little higher than some cookie cutter cheat sheet you get at ESPN. Knowing I’m going to target those guys, but also knowing I can get them a little later than what they are actually worth, allows me to close the gap on that part of the draft I may have missed out on a little at those other positions when I took that QB early. So now I have not only got that stud QB that puts me ahead, I have also made up the so called “ground I lost” at the other positions.
What I don’t like about some of the comments above. They leave too much to chance. “there’s always someone on the waiver wire”….”I can get a sweet combo of Rivers/Cutler”…really…?…you’d probably have to take those guys with back to back picks because they are going to be right around each other and there will be picks between your picks. You may say pass on the QB’s and target Rivers later, but there is a chance 5-6 other guys are thinking the same thing. So then you end up taking him a round earlier than you wanted “just to be sure” and then in essence you have lost some of the advantage you were trying to gain. I also don’t like to play the game of predicting which one of those mid-range QB’s is going to make that “jump” into the top 5-6. Good luck with that. And relying on always being able to pick somebody up off the WW seems a little backwards. If you’re doing it right, you should have one of the last waiver priority picks each week anyway so you should never get your hands on that guy that could save your season.
Sorry…that was just a little rant on my stance the way I see it now in the fantasy world. The cool thing is that my opinion could be totally wrong; and also be completely different tomorrow. There are many successful ways to build a fantasy team that can win you a championship, I’m just kind of leaning toward the “stud QB and do your homework” approach right now. It’s a passing league and the RB position is a mess. Give me that stud QB early that is a monster and that allows me to focus elsewhere for the next 10 rounds and I like my chances of administering thorough beatdowns all year.
Your opinion certainly isn’t wrong Ref. People look at the draft in different ways and getting Aaron Rodgers or Drew Bress is never wrong. The game is changing like you said that’s why if I don’t have a Top 5 pick I probably won’t take a RB early. I just don’t see the benefits of taking DeMarco Murray over a Cam Newton personally, so for me it’s all about if I can get a McCoy or Rice. You also bring up a good point about players like Decker. I see him being a WR1, so if I grab Brandon Marshall and Decker, I have two top receivers in my book. The difference is I don’t have to use a high pick on Decker, so maybe I use that pick on Tom Brady instead. Now in my first five picks I have a team that looks something like Brady, Marshall, Decker, Fred Jackson and Roy Helu. Going by how I have players ranked, that’s a pretty good starting off point for a fantasy team. For me, I really won’t know what I’m going to do until I’m on the clock. I’ll have a couple of scenarios in place and then see how the draft plays out. The only way I’ll know what I’m doing before the draft is if I pick in the Top 3. If that’s the case I’ll be taking one of McCoy, Rice or Foster. Thanks for the comments. You brought up a lot of good points. I hope people are reading the comments here too because they have generated beneficial discussions.
The comments are good stuff for sure!
I kind of agree with Ref’s mindset, i use to be all about grabbing RB’s too, but not only has the game changed, you know what i’ve learned about myself over the years? I’m really stinking good at drafting, and wiring good RB’s. So this year i got to thinking, why the hell do what i’m good at in the early rounds? It’s not my norm, even though winning has been, but i’m thinking of switching it up and going stud QB and WR early in 2012. No matter if i’m picking early or late i can fill those two spots with my first two picks, without reaching, and possibly while getting value at the same time with at least one of the picks.
I think if you wait on a QB you better hit on almost all of the picks before it, or you won’t come out of the gates ahead of the manager who got Rodgers in 1. If you’re NOT of the mindset to think of injuries, or curses when you draft position players early, maybe think of it this way. You’re RB/WR might not get hurt, but since more do in fact get hurt than QB’s, that means they’ll be a much less crowded draft, after the draft, to fill holes in your team. We know there are always a tone of WR/RB pickups made all year, so for the first pick why not take off the super value shopper hat and lock up any of the top 5 QB’s that are still there, no matter if its Cam at pick 6… and then if you reached for Gronk or Graham in 2, i don’t know if id blame you one bit. Because locking up 25% of you’re starting lineup with your first two picks, and securing the two hardest positions to wire at studly levels, sounds kind of like a smart plan of attack as i type this. Who knows what’ i’ll do when i’m on the clock though
Nerd you said something I want to comment on. You said you feel you’re good at drafting. I think that’s important because people read too much stuff leading up to the draft and they end up not knowing which way is which. I criticize the 1,000 “don’t draft a QB early” articles that come out every summer because I ask, why? Are you telling me you can’t win a title if you draft Aaron Rodgers in Round 1? Maybe that’s not your style but where is the proof that it doesn’t work? My method is to try and give information and my thoughts to help owners, even if you disagree. Maybe I write something about Eric Decker who I love but it reinforces your thinking that he’ll be a bust. The biggest joke phrase on the planet is “Fantasy Football Expert.” What the hell does that mean? I’ve always stated that my goal is to help people win fantasy championships. It doesn’t mean you have to agree with everything I say. So make sure you don’t read so many of these idiots that you change your thinking. These old school guys are still pushing RB/RB down your throat for Christ sakes. You win by playing well all year. I’ve had good drafts and lost in the playoffs. I’ve had bad drafts and worked hard with trades and waiver wire moves that I ended up winning it all. It’s a long process. Trust your gut. That’s the best advice I can give.
Ref: I agree with some of what you’re saying but I think you’re falling into a common trap by stating that Rodgers, Brees, Brady, Newton & Stafford ARE the top 5 QB to draft, when in fact they WERE the top 5 QB’s from last season. The ebbs & flows of each season are different and yesterday’s trash is tomorrow’s treasure. Why can’t Rivers at age 30 have another elite top 5 season? Same goes for Vick, who had an abnormally low 1 rushing TD. Even Peyton, who very well could be 100% by training camp, is a solid bet to have another 1-3 great seasons. The point is that every year there are veterans who bounce back and young guns who have break-out seasons when finally given an opportunity. I don’t draft based off last year’s stats for any position, including QB. At this point, the only top 5 QB’s from last season that will for sure be in my 2012 pre-rank top 5 are Rodgers and Brady.
I am the last person to draft off of last years stats, they really mean jack squat to me. For me at QB it’s about:
1. passing the eye ball test
2. passing that test through fantasy colored glasses
3. are you the primary option, ball in your hand more often than not, inside the red zone…is your coach super cool with you passing in the red zone instead of handing off, being conservative, and taking FG’s….and notice I said handing off, not running, cause in the case of somebody like Newton, him taking off and running could be option A for a coach….
I was using those 5 as more of an example, because personally I might take Vick over Newton or Stafford, just cause I think he can have more huge weeks and that last year was a small bump in the road. (Jackson and Maclin are solid) In my mind, Rodgers, Brady, and Brees are locks. The coaches there want the ball in their hands as much as possible, including inside the 10. Stafford has the best receiver in the game and some other weapons including a pretty solid set of TE’s. And I am a little concerned about DET running game so I think they chuck it. Newton is just a physical beast and while I know it is in vogue to say Newton’s rushing TD’s are going to drop…I ask why? He is an open field nightmare for defenses and personally I think he likes to take off and mess with dudes. I have always been a huge fan of Rivers game even though I really don’t like what I see about him as a person. He is the kind of guy I would like to have on my team, but also the kind I would like to bitch slap. Competitor to no end. I am shying off of him a little because he won’t be the primary focus of the offense. Rodgers, Brady, Brees, are. You never know when Gates in going down and while I like Meachem and some of the other weapons there (really like Brown) I just think there could be many weeks this year where Rivers won’t help lead your fantasy team to a victory. I think the other 5 and even Vick for that matter, can. I think the only way Rivers or Manning get in the top 5 is if there is an injury to those first 5 and Vick. Manning, his stock will rise over the summer, and thats because he is going to look awesome in camp when anybody with bad intentions won’t be coming within 10 yards of him. I like the possibilities there, but it could also be a trainwreck with the neck.
My point is that if you are confident in your ability to dominate your draft between rounds 3-10, I see no reason why you wouldn’t put yourself ahead of the pack right away and lock down a stud QB. Heck, why stop at round 10, I usually do some of my best work after that even. I’m not really here to pound my chest or anything, I am just thinking that in today’s fantasy landscape there is no reason solid fantasy players should feel like that may have to play catch up at QB to other teams in the league. We all know what it is like to look at our weekly matchup and see Rodgers, Brees, or Brady in the other guy’s lineup. Usually you immediatley think you are in the hole at that position. You know the rest of your team will probably have some ground to make up. Why not be that guy instead of playing against that guy? And then just kick ass with the rest of your draft.
Newton’s rushing stats won’t drop. He’s the best short yardage runner in the NFL. He’s unstoppable inside the 5-yard line. If you hit him straight on he still dives forward for the score. If they stop running Newton near the goal line they should be shot. It’s the most unstoppable play in the NFL right now. The guy is just too big and strong. I don’t see it.
If newtons rushing stats arent going to drop then Id be in on him. Tolbert scares me though… why would they get tolbert…it would have to be for goal line plays.
I think they like his receiving skills, that’s for sure. I’m not saying Tolbert won’t get any goal line carries but I don’t see it cutting into Newton’s totals. If you have the best goal line runner in the NFL you let him take it in. No need to get complicated. Maybe I’m wrong but the guy is too physical a runner, I don’t think his rushing numbers will decline enough to hurt his overall fantasy value.
I’ll pound your chest ref, couldn’t agree more!
If you wait to take a QB that you know will put up 100 ftps less on the year then the top guys, how much of an advantage are you getting over the manager who takes Brees/Brady in round 1, if he’s only getting started on his WR/RB’s a few picks later, and the talent drop off at WR & RB isn’t nearly as steep as it is at QB and TE.
If you then go with a QB combo mid draft, well i think you totally just gave back all the advantage you might have had since the Rodgers owner won’t waste a mid round pick on a QB.
I’ve looked back at every draft i’ve ever done when the year was over. Did the pick perform, or did he at least hold enough value that i traded him for someone who did, and i always feel i’m about 50/50 on my draft day selections, and i’ve always waited to take a QB. I think i read once that overall most people are 50/50 on there WR/RB picks. I don’t pick bad QB’s late, but again i ponder, if their 100+ off of the top guys, what did i gain starting my coin flips a round sooner then the guy with one of the top 5 quarterbacks? Maybe the grass is just greener, but i think i wanna be that guy this year.
There is just too much WR/RB Bondo on the wire all year long, to worry about a dent in my ride when the race starts. Give me the better driver! ha
Guys, I’m totally fine with your approach of taking a QB in Rd 1 and then building your RB and WR core later. I can’t argue against the consistency and huge point potential of QB’s like Rodgers, Brady, Brees.
My 2 main points were:
1) There’s turnover at the top of the QB rankings every year. Vick and Rivers were consensus top 5 QB a year ago and now rankings of both vary. Matthew Berry even boldly touted that Vick was the #1 overall player. The bottom-line is that QB’s have both peak years and down years for various reasons and you shouldn’t assume that Rodgers, Brees, and Brady are guaranteed to dominate this year like they did last season.
2) A championship team can just as easily be built by taking the best available player in each round. If I’m not as high on Brees this year and Rodgers and Brady are gone, then I have no problem taking Ryan Mathews late in rd 1 and then AP in rd 2. I can then take 2 WR and 1 more RB in rds 3-5. Then in rd 6 I may have the opportunity to take someone like Rivers, Romo or either of the Manning bros. Maybe they’re all gone or someone I really like at RB, WR, or TE (Gates or Finley) slips, so I take them instead. There’s still guys like Ryan, Big Ben, and Cutler on the board for the next round or 2. One of these QB’s could easily surprise and have a dominant season. I’d pair this QB up with a late rd high upside QB like Palmer, Locker or Bradford.
These are just my thoughts and approach but I certainly understand your way of thinking.
I agree about the best player on the board. That’s what led me take Brady at the end of Round 2 last year. We had a run on receivers and I wasn’t thrilled with the running backs that were left, so I went with Brady. Fantasy football isn’t all that different from real football where I think you should try and get as many good players as possible. I make a ton of trades and waiver wire moves throughout the season, so my goal is to come out of the draft with a team that’s talented and gives me the flexibility to make moves. The worst thing that can happen is you have a bad team. For instance I started 0-2 last year but I got nipped by owners that had huge weeks. I actually scored a lot, so I wasn’t worried. But if you start off 0-4 and you don’t have much talent, it’s hard for you to make moves and get back into it. I’ve never felt you win your league at the draft but I do feel you can lose it.
I don’t think Vick or Rivers were necessarily consensus top 5 QB’s last year. Vick was ‘going’ in the top 5 because of ‘dream team’ hype alone, Rivers just outside it, and everyone knew with Vick came the much more real possibility of injury, and him landing in a spot well outside the top 5. If Rivers was injured too, then that explains his departure from eliteness also. Not sure why anyone thought Vick deserved to be mentioned in the same breath as Brady though. Berry has some good thoughts sometimes, i like his idea of picking up one QB, RB, WR, & TE in the first four rounds. But he was a fool focused only on the numbers of what could be, to say Vick should be taken #1 overall in all drafts like he did. He’s never been a good enough passer, and he’s always been too small to take the hits of a running back like he has to inflict himself too, since he’s not a good enough passer. He’s always been too small to even get a lot of his passes off from behind the line. I laughed when he said that last year.
“A championship team can just as easily be built by taking the best available player in each round”
I’m sure that has to be true, since it sounds like something the Steeler’s of the 70′s would say, ha. But, “best available player” across positions, is where i think we see differently. To me, there are very few if any RB’s that should go before any of the top 5 passers go. And last year i was all of the mindset that so many QB’s were going to brake 4000 passing yards, and pop 400 fpts for the year, that i waited, thought the position was going to be easy to fill. Well i was right, but what i didn’t for see was so many (4) braking 500 fpts for the year. My point was, if you go Foster 1st round, you get out of the gate first with your core build up, i admit that, but if i get Mr Rodgers after you, AND get to pick again before you, how much of a lead you got left?… Also, every pick you make until you give up your lead and go QB, better keep you you’re lead. And if we’re all pretty much just flipping quarters at WR/RB’s, and we’re going to pick 10 or so of them, vs the 1 or 2 QB’s we’ll all take, i think better to make sure i get that flip right first.