Running back may not be quite as important to fantasy owners as it was 10 years ago but it’s still hard to win a championship without quality players at the position. The early Average Draft Position (ADP) offers some nice value after Round 3, so if you want to go in a different direction with your first two picks, there will still be valuable running backs left on the board to help owners build their fantasy team.
There are many different sites that track ADP. I mainly use My Fantasy League, Fantasy Football Calculator and Football Guys. If you have another good site, let me know and I’ll check it out. Also, ADP changes by the day, so if I have a guy going in Round 5 on Monday, he could be going in a different round by Wednesday.
Here’s a look at where running backs are being selected on average in the first 100 picks as of May 8 in a 12-team league:
Round 1
Arian Foster, Texans (1)
Ray Rice, Ravens (2)
LeSean McCoy, Eagles (3)
Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars (5)
Chris Johnson, Titans (7)
Ryan Mathews, Chargers (10)
Darren McFadden, Raiders (12)
Round 2
Marshawn Lynch, Seahawks (13)
Trent Richardson, Browns (14)
Matt Forte, Bears (16)
Adrian Peterson, Vikings (17)
DeMarco Murray, Cowboys (19)
Jamaal Charles, Chiefs (22)
Round 3
Steven Jackson, Rams (26)
Michael Turner, Falcons (28)
Ahmad Bradshaw, Giants (30)
Fred Jackson, Bills (32)
Darren Sproles, Saints (33)
Round 4
Frank Gore, 49ers (38)
Roy Helu, Redskins (44)
Beanie Wells, Cardinals (45)
BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Bengals (48)
Round 5
Reggie Bush, Dolphins (52)
Shonn Greene, Jets (56)
Doug Martin, Bucs (58)
Isaac Redman, Steelers (60)
Round 6
Willis McGahee, Broncos (64)
C.J. Spiller, Bills (68)
Stevan Ridley, Patriots (72)
Round 7
Mark Ingram, Saints (75)
Jahvid Best, Lions (76)
Michael Bush, Bears (79)
Peyton Hills, Chiefs (82)
Jonathan Stewart, Panthers (84)
Round 8
LeGarrette Blount, Bucs (88)
James Starks, Packers (90)
DeAngelo Williams, Panthers (92)
Ben Tate, Texans (94)
Donald Brown, Colts (95)
Round 9
Rashard Mendenhall, Steelers (100)
Others of Interest
David Wilson, Giants (Round 10)
Felix Jones, Cowboys (Round 10)
Kendall Hunter, 49ers (Round 11)
Isaiah Pead, Rams (Round 11)
Shane Vereen, Patriots (Round 12)
LaMichael James, 49ers (Round 13)
Ronnie Hillman, Broncos (Round 13)
Overvalued
Charles - Charles is actually one of my favorite players in the NFL and I expect him to come back and put up strong fantasy numbers once again this season. But No. 22 overall? I’m not seeing it with Peyton Hillis around to steal touches. I understand Charles put up big numbers splitting time with Thomas Jones but Jones and Hillis aren’t the same player. Jones can’t catch and Hillis is a great receiver. So Hillis will play a lot more on passing downs than Jones did. When you look at Charles being drafted on average at pick 22 and Hillis at 82, that’s way too big of a gap for me. I would much rather wait five rounds and get the guy who is going to catch 50 balls and get the majority of goal line carries.
Turner - It doesn’t surprise me that Turner is going in the Top 30 picks but it doesn’t mean I have to agree. No way am I drafting Turner with guys like Bradshaw, Gore, Helu, Fred Jackson and Sproles still on the board. No way in hell. Turner still has fantasy value but if you watched him last year you saw a player on the decline. In my opinion Turner is going 15-20 picks too high. I would consider him in Round 5 but in the third round there are many better options still on the board for me to select a back on the downside of his career.
Undervalued
Helu - I love the value with Helu right now. I’m a big DeMarco Murray fan but I see these two guys being ranked pretty close. However, Murray is getting drafted on average in the Top 20 and Helu is lasting to the middle of Round 4. That’s what we call value and that’s what I look for when drafting. I get the concerns about Mike Shanahan but my gut tells me he’s going to do less screwing around with personnel. Shanahan finally has a quarterback and he knows he has to win this year. I think he’ll try and get his best players on the field and Helu is by far the most talented running back on that team. I like Helu to have a big year and outproduce some of the running backs being taken in the first two rounds.
Redman - What do you think of Chris Rainey, Jonathan Dwyer and John Clay? Let me ask you another question; how many carries do you see those three guys getting this year? If you answered “not very many” then you like Redman. Let’s assume that Rashard Mendenhall will miss half the season. I know torn knee ligaments are like a flesh wound these days but I think it’s safe to say Mendenhall will likely miss the first eight games. Then Redman is pretty much guaranteed a majority of the touches on a good offense. An offense with blazing speed at receiver, an improved offensive line and a healthy Ben Roethlisberger. That’s a pretty good situation for a running back you can get at the end of Round 5. I think Redman’s ADP will rise throughout the summer but if you end up getting him in Round 4 or later, consider yourself very lucky. I actually don’t think there’s anything overly special about Redman in terms of his physical skills but very few running backs will be in a better situation to have fantasy success during the first two months of the season.
Starks - The Packers are never going to run the ball a lot. I think we can all agree on that. But getting the Packers starting running back in Round 9? Sign me up. Plus, Starks is really the only show in town right now. Brandon Saine could see more playing time but unless Green Bay signs a veteran back, Starks will get most of the carries. Again, sign me up for him in the ninth round. Look at the guys being taken around Starks. Blount, Tate, DeAngelo Williams and Donald Brown? Those players have fantasy value but out of that group I’ll take the starting running back on one of the best offenses in the NFL. Starks was one of my sleepers coming out of the draft a couple of years ago and I still believe his best is yet to come.
Hillman - Obviously I think Hillman is undervalued if he isn’t the top overall pick in fantasy drafts. In all seriousness though, if you can get Hillman in the Round 11 area that’s a good spot for him. He’ll be a superstar but it may take him until later in the season to get there. It’s only a matter of time before you all see what I’ve seen in Hillman. I’m sure of it. For now, just trust me and blindly draft him. Also, this is kind of funny. I’ve written so much about Ronnie Hillman since I started this blog it’s the No. 1 searched term that brings people to my site from search engines. I don’t have much to offer in life but if you want to know about Hillman, come to The Pigskin Guy. God, please don’t be a bust.
Overall Thoughts
There aren’t many surprises for me early on with the running backs. There are a couple guys going higher than I have them ranked and a couple going lower but nothing I didn’t expect going in. One thing I do like is there’s some value in the middle rounds. If you only get one running back in the first three rounds, you can still grab guys with a lot of value later on. I mean, as much as we all want to read Frank Gore his last rights, getting him in the fourth round isn’t an awful deal for fantasy owners. The best value I see on the board early on is Hillis at the end of Round 7. Again, I love Charles but when you add in receptions and red zone touches, Hillis is a nice pick that late in the draft. For those of you that like to grab a stud quarterback early, there will still be a lot of quality running backs left on the board after the first couple of rounds for you to build your fantasy team around.
Super sleeper: Jonathan Dwyer. I loved him at Georgia Tech and he did well in a game last year when Mendenhall was out. He probably isn’t getting drafted but keep your eye on him in case Redman struggles or goes down.
I saw him a lot at Tech too. I bet them to win the ACC that year, so I watched every game they played. That gave me a good beat on Demaryius Thomas coming out too. I’ve always liked Dwyer but I don’t see him being much more than a situational guy in the NFL. Maybe I’m wrong. If he ends up being a factor I’ll certainly give you credit for the call. I like the thinking outside the box. That’s the kind of stuff I want to hear. I’ll pay extra attention to him during the preseason.
You need to check out the new ESPN mock draft, if only to see where Antonio Brown was drafted:
http://sports.espn.go.com/fantasy/football/ffl/story?page=nfldk2k12mockdraft1
These experts are also extremely high on your boy Hillman…
If you want to see how not to draft, follow an “experts” draft. I’ve done some throughout the years and they don’t help owners at all. The don’t represent how real folks draft. You should see the egos on these guys. Every pick is followed by a parade and pat on the back. It’s awful. Where did Hillman go? I looked it over a few times and didn’t see him. Decker in Round 6. That’s a joke.
Hillman undrafted while such luminaries as Montario Hardesty, Ryan Grant, Le’Ron Mclain, and Taiwan Jones were taken. I still don’t get how Antonio Brown slipped to Rd 14, overall pick 131 (WR 46). To me, that is a total joke and embarrassing. The only reason I follow ESPN is to try to get some insight into how the masses will be ranking and drafting. Worth a few laughs as well.
Wow. I thought I missed him. I couldn’t believe I saw Brown in Round 14. How can any of these guys have the guts to call themselves experts and let that happen? OK, so maybe you don’t like him as much as I do but Round 14? Look at the players that went ahead of him. If they wanted to do an early draft to help people, that failed miserably. It looks like they didn’t even take the time to prepare.
It’s funny because I was just thinking that last season two players saved me more than once in games where I was 30 points below until they hit the field: Murray and Antonio Brown. I picked both of them up in waiver wire, Brown as replacement to Miles Austin and Murray as replacement to Hillis and it paid such dividends that I was aiming to go reach for Brown in round 3 because with returns, fake packages and his obvious skills he is worth it, maybe not a steal but I know he’ll put up good numbers now that Ben will have more than one second to throw the ball.
My usual league is full of Dallas haters so I will probably go all out for Richardson in round 1, unless I have a top 3 pick, which I never do, and in round 2 pick up Murray.
I’m doing the receivers now and Brown is going in Round 7 on average. That’s three rounds too low in my book. I’m fully on board with him. Like I said last summer he just looks like he belongs. He did nothing but cement that for me with the way he played last year. I think he’s an emerging star. People don’t know how good that guy is yet. They’ll know by October.
If the comments coming out of Big Big are legit about him having multiple conversations with OC Haley about the offense going No Huddle and pass heavy, then both he and Antonio Brown are being seriously undervalued.
I agree. I was wondering if this was finally the year the Steelers would turn Big Ben loose and it sounds like that’s the case. I hate Todd Haley as a head coach but as a coordinator he’s proven he knows the passing game. I think it’s the right move to put the offense on the shoulders of Big Ben and the receivers. That’s the strength of the team and the rules are better suited for throwing than running a power based attack.
With a great big smile on my face. I think in two years he may be going No. 1 overall in re-draft leagues. You combine his running and receiving skills and you have a fantasy monster in the making. Just have to hold on a little bit longer.