Source: bigleadsports.com
I finish up my updated position rankings with wide receivers. After a lot of moving around my receivers are finally beginning to look like a finished product. I never thought I would be saying that back in April but there wasn’t much movement in my Top 40 for the first time since I started the rankings, which means were getting close to the finish line. Here are my Top 100 fantasy wide receivers for 2012.
2012 Fantasy Wide Receiver Rankings
(Last updated July 20)
Rankings are based on a 12-team league flex format with 1 point awarded per reception
1. Calvin Johnson, Lions
2. Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals
3. Brandon Marshall, Bears ↑
4. A.J. Green, Bengals
5. Wes Welker, Patriots
6. Andre Johnson, Texans
7. Roddy White, Falcons
8. Hakeem Nicks, Giants
9. Victor Cruz, Giants
10. Julio Jones, Falcons
11. Jordy Nelson, Packers
12. Eric Decker, Broncos ↑
13. Greg Jennings, Packers
14. Dez Bryant, Cowboys ↓
15. Steve Smith, Panthers
16. Antonio Brown, Steelers ↑
17. Percy Harvin, Vikings
18. Jeremy Maclin, Eagles
19. Brandon Lloyd, Patriots ↑
20. Demaryius Thomas, Broncos
21. Mike Wallace, Steelers
22. Miles Austin, Cowboys
23. Dwayne Bowe, Chiefs ↑
24. Marques Colston, Saints
25. Steve Johnson, Bills
26. Vincent Jackson, Bucs
27. Kenny Britt, Titans ↓ (See Below)
28. Sidney Rice, Seahawks
29. Reggie Wayne, Colts
30. DeSean Jackson, Eagles
31. Torrey Smith, Ravens
32. Pierre Garcon, Redskins
33. Robert Meachem, Chargers
34. Darrius Heyward-Bey, Raiders
35. Michael Crabtree, 49ers
36. Greg Little, Browns
37. Randy Moss, 49ers
38. Denarius Moore, Raiders
39. Titus Young, Lions
40. Lance Moore, Saints
41. Santonio Holmes, Jets
42. Anquan Boldin, Ravens
43. Austin Collie, Colts ↑
44. Kendall Wright, Titans ↑
45. Malcom Floyd, Chargers
46. Laurent Robinson, Jaguars ↓
47. Nate Washington, Titans ↑
48. Michael Floyd, Cardinals ↓
49. Vincent Brown, Chargers ↑
50. Randall Cobb, Packers ↑
51. Doug Baldwin, Seahawks
52. Justin Blackmon, Jaguars ↓
53. Nate Burleson, Lions ↓
54. Brandon LaFell, Panthers
55. Brian Hartline, Dolphins
56. Santana Moss, Redskins ↑
57. Jerome Simpson, Vikings ↑
58. Earl Bennett, Bears ↓
59. Preston Parker, Bucs
60. Kevin Walter, Texans
61. Alshon Jeffery, Bears ↑
62. Donald Jones, Bills
63. Mike Williams, Bucs ↓
64. Golden Tate, Seahawks
65. David Nelson, Bills ↑
66. Eddie Royal, Chargers ↑
67. Ryan Broyles, Lions ↑
68. Jacoby Ford, Raiders
69. Andre Roberts, Cardinals ↑
70. Davone Bess, Dolphins ↓
71. Brian Quick, Rams
72. Rueben Randle, Giants
73. Harry Douglas, Falcons
74. Emmanuel Sanders, Steelers
75. Danny Amendola, Rams
76. Jonathan Baldwin, Chiefs
77. Mario Manningham, 49ers ↓
78. Damian Williams, Titans ↑
79. Leonard Hankerson, Redskins
80. Armon Binns, Bengals ↑
81. Stephen Hill, Jets
82. Jordan Shipley, Bengals
83. Josh Morgan, Redskins
84. Mohamed Sanu, Bengals ↓
85. Steve Breaston, Chiefs
86. Jason Avant, Eagles
87. Early Doucet, Cardinals ↑
88. Nick Toon, Saints ↑
89. James Jones, Packers ↓
90. Chris Givens, Rams
91. Carlton Mitchell, Browns ↑
92. Devin Hester, Bears ↓
93. A.J. Jenkins, 49ers ↓
94. Greg Salas, Rams
95. Mohamed Massaquoi, Browns ↓
96. Devery Henderson, WR Saints
97. Brandon Gibson, Rams
98. Andre Caldwell, Broncos
99. Josh Cooper, Browns ↑
100. Donald Driver, Packers
In the Mix
Jerrel Jernigan, Giants
Greg Childs, Vikings
Andre Holmes, Cowboys
Marvin Jones, Bengals
DeVier Posey, Texans
Riley Cooper, Eagles
Damaris Johnson, Eagles
T.Y. Hilton, Colts
Adrian Arrington, Saints
Dezmon Briscoe, Bucs
Lee Evans, Jaguars
Going Up
Marshall - I’m not going to shy away from my original thinking on Marshall, so I’m keeping him at No. 3. He’s going to have a huge season with Jay Cutler throwing him the ball. It’s hard to trust Marshall over the long-term because of his off-the-field shenanigans but just for 2012 I believe he’ll be a monster. I don’t see my Top 3 receivers changing again. Megatron, Fitz and Marshall are the three top fantasy receivers for 2012 in my opinion.
Decker - Decker has been one of my favorite players since I saw him at the University of Minnesota and I love him this year for fantasy owners. When this guy had an average pocket passer throwing to him last season he put up big fantasy numbers. Now he has Peyton Manning throwing to him and the future Hall of Famer has already been raving about his new target. I say Decker catches 80-90 balls this year if Manning stays healthy. Decker is currently being drafted on average in Round 7. I think that could go up to the end of Round 5 by the time August rolls around and all the training camp reports talk about the chemistry between him and Manning.
You know, I recently posted that I’m dealing with a health issue. Years ago I began looking at the bright side of situations. So when this latest obstacle came my way I thought of how I could spin it in my favor. Then it hit me. If all of my fantasy predictions suck, I can just blame it on my health. Even better, my two main predictions are Decker and Ronnie Hillman, right? Well, they play on the same team, so if they both bomb, I can always say, “I guess being sick really clouded my judgement of the situation in Denver.” If Decker catches 80 balls like I predicted I would like full credit for calling him three years ago after he was drafted. However, if he only catches 40 passes, just remember I’m not feeling well. Actually, if both Decker and Hillman bomb so many people will be looking for me I better hope my health gets to me first.
Vincent Brown, Chargers -I have Brown as my top sleeper for 2012. I went back and watched some San Diego State games from 2010 and I remembered why I was so high on Brown coming out of college. This kid is the real deal.
Physically, Brown has everything you look for in a No. 1 receiver. He’s quick, strong, fast and Brown does a good job going up and battling defenders for the ball, despite being just 5’11. One of the reasons I like Brown to be much more productive in his second season is because Norv Turner’s offense can be tough for rookies to pick up. Turner is a joke as a head coach but he knows offense. I know from listening to Troy Aikman and others talk in the past they all said Turner has so much going on in the passing game it can be difficult for rookies to grasp everything. Now throw in a lockout that got Brown off to a late start and I see him making a big jump in 2012.
When you look at the receivers in San Diego, there’s an opportunity for a talented young guy like Brown to step up and earn playing time. Malcom Floyd will play two or three games before pulling something. Robert Meachem has talent but it’s not like he set the world on fire in New Orleans. Eddie Royal will help as a slot receiver but he is what he is at this point in his career. In other words, the Chargers don’t have receivers that are firmly established as big-time producers. I always say when looking for a sleeper I like to combine talent with opportunity and that’s what I believe we have here with Brown in San Diego.
I predict Brown will be the Chargers No. 1 receiver some day. That day may not come until 2013 but even so I think he’ll produce enough this season to really help out fantasy owners.
Cobb -Another one of my top sleepers is Cobb. I know we’re not allowed to compare black slot receivers to Wes Welker. For some reason the media has a rule against that but I’m going to do it anyway. I believe Cobb will be the Packers version of Welker. With Greg Jennings, Jordy Nelson and Jermichael Finley drawing most of the attention from opposing defenses, I see Cobb being a much bigger factor this season.
I was surprised to see that some people downgraded Cobb once Donald Driver was re-signed. I’m not one of those people. Didn’t we all expect the Packers to re-sign Driver? I think Green Bay brought Driver back for veteran insurance and to help mentor the younger receivers. You’ll never hear anyone say a bad thing about Driver. He’s supposedly one of the nicest, hardest-working guys in the NFL and a player like that still has value later on in his career. However, when you look at what Cobb does well and what Driver can do at this point, they aren’t even in the same hemisphere.
Cobb is a lightning quick slot receiver, whereas Driver will be counted on more if the Packers suffer some injuries at receiver. Anyone who watched Driver play last year saw a receiver that struggles to get open at this stage in his career. I believe the Green Bay coaching staff has big plans for Cobb and he’s a perfect complement to Jennings and Nelson because of the things he can do as an inside receiver. Cobb caught 25 balls as a rookie. He’ll more than double that total in 2012.
Washington - A guy like Washington isn’t going to win you a fantasy title but he’s the kind of receiver I love to have on my bench because I feel comfortable starting him in a pinch. If I have an injury or a bye week I know I can throw Washington in my starting lineup and there’s a chance he scores me 10-15 points in a PPR league. The fact that Washington isn’t even getting drafted in some leagues also means he represents good value.
Apparently Kenny Britt’s knees are now being held together with Super Glue. Britt has the looks of a stud but we haven’t seen a lot from him yet and I have him going down in my rankings with the latest news on his knees not being encouraging. I love Kendall Wright and think he’ll make an immediate impact. I moved Wright up to 44 but he’s still a rookie receiver and more of a deep threat right now.
Washington caught 74 balls last year and regardless of Britt and Wright’s roles in the offense I think he’s entrenched as the Titans possession receiver. Remember, Britt and Wright are both big-play kind of receivers, whereas Washington will be doing more of his damage on underneath routes. In a PPR league guys like that have value.
Don’t worry about Washington disappearing with Britt back in the lineup either. In the three games Britt played last year Washington caught 21 balls and racked up 258 yards. Britt draws so much attention from defenses it actually opens things up for Washington. The presence of the speedy Wright will only help Washington further because once defenses see how fast that guy is in person he won’t see much single coverage. I think Washington is a nice undervalued veteran to take a shot on later in the draft.
Update: The morning after I posted these rankings Kenny Britt was arrested for DUI and faces a suspension by the NFL. So now we’re talking about a guy who has bad knees and will likely get suspended. It’s obviously time to move Britt way down your rankings and move both Nate Washington and Kendall Wright up.
Binns - You know those guys you watch play in college and when they don’t get drafted you say to yourself, “Wow, he didn’t get drafted?” Binns was one of those guys for me. I feel like every time I watched a Cincinnati game Binns was making two or three big plays. The Bengals are looking for someone to step up and be their No. 2 receiver. Binns is clearly in the mix right now and whether he wins the job or not, he’s an intriguing player. I’ll tell you, not many receivers can go up and grab the ball away from defenders like Binns can. At the very least he should be a threat in the red zone. If I had to place money on who will come out of nowhere and be this year’s Victor Cruz/Laurent Robinson, I would say Binns. Then again, there’s a reason why I “retired” from gambling 10 years ago. Still, Binns is a player to keep an eye on during training camp and preseason.
Coming Down
Jennings - I have Jennings ranked below his teammate Jordy Nelson. I have to go with my gut on this one. I had Jennings last year and he’s a good fantasy receiver but I think we’re ranking him based on his name and what he did three years ago. It’s hard to drop a receiver that’s scored 21 times over the last two years and has Aaron Rodgers throwing to him but with the emergence of Nelson and Cobb, I no longer view Jennings as a Top 5 fantasy receiver like many others do.
Bryant - I only moved Bryant down a couple of spots until we see what comes of this mess. You know, I’m really sick and God damn tired of this team. If Jerry Jones isn’t making a stupid decision regarding personnel, the idiot coach he hired is making a stupid decision on gameday. If one receiver isn’t telling me he didn’t feel like playing football last year, another one is chasing his mother around the house with a hatchet. I’ve had it with the entire franchise. Give me DeMarcus Ware, Jason Witten, Sean Lee, Tyron Smith and Jay Ratliff and you can blow the rest of the Cowboys organization out your ass for all I care.
Blackmon - There’s a chance Blackmon will burst onto the scene and be the NFL Rookie of the Year but let’s be honest, he’s not off to a very good start. Soon after being drafted Blackmon learned his offense is in such shambles that Chad Henne could actually be the Jaguars starting quarterback this year. Then Blackmon gets arrested for a DUI and declares that he’s done drinking “for now.”
Boy, that makes me feel good. What the hell does that mean? I used to wake up on my kitchen floor after a night of snorting Jagermeister up my nose and say “I’m done drinking for now.” Then five hours later I was funneling Vodka. Sorry if Blackmon’s statement doesn’t give me a warm fuzzy feeling inside or instill much confidence that he’s done drinking. Again, maybe he doesn’t touch another drop of alcohol and blows up as a rookie but the facts are the facts. And the fact is Blackmon’s NFL career has gotten off to a rocky start.
To once again quote the infamous Dean Wormer from Animal House, “Fat, drunk and stupid is no way to go through life son.” Sorry but I’ll pass on the Jags receiver in Round 7 who’s done drinking “for now.”
Mike Williams -I was concerned last year because Williams looked like a guy that had a lot of trouble getting open to me. Now reports are coming out of Tampa that Preston Parker could move past Williams on the depth chart. I take all reports in June with a grain salt but if true this one doesn’t really surprise me. I was impressed with Parker last season and I think he has a chance to be productive out of the slot for the Bucs. I see Tampa Bay running the ball and throwing a lot of short passes, setting up play action for Vincent Jackson down the field. I still expect Williams to start but I’m predicting Parker catches more passes this season. At worst, it should be pretty close and Parker isn’t even being drafted in most leagues, so he offers way more bang for the buck.
Manningham - It pains me every time I hear a fan or media member refer to that play in the Super Bowl as “The Catch.” The Catch? How about “The Throw?” Eli Manning looks at one side of the field, comes back across to the other side and then drops a perfect pass in between a safety and corner with perfect coverage. Oh, and he had a 300-pound defensive lineman bearing down on him as he released the ball. What did Manningham do? He caught a perfectly thrown football that 100 other receivers would have caught. Then again, I guess it’s a big deal that Manningham actually hung on. Seriously, how many quarterbacks on the planet can make that throw? Three? Four? How many receivers catch it? 90? 100? In my opinion it was the single greatest throw I’ve ever seen in a big game.
I’ve never been a Manningham fan. He runs awful routes and has suspect hands. Maybe it’s me but those aren’t great qualities for an NFL receiver. How many times a game did we see Eli yelling at Manningham for running the wrong route? Remember when all the fantasy geniuses were predicting a breakout year from Manningham last season? Well, hopefully you listened to me give all the reasons why that would never happen. You do realize this guy was going in Round 5 of some drafts last year, don’t you? That’s the kind of disaster the misguided hype machine from the bigger fantasy sites caused. Manningham will never be a great NFL or fantasy receiver. He simply doesn’t have the skills to be that good. I don’t think I’m saying anything that people who have seen the Giants play a lot don’t already know.
Manningham will make a big play here and there, especially if Randy Moss is playing well and he gets a lot of single coverage, but I’ve never thought of him as having much fantasy value and I don’t see that changing this year. Manningham is a very poor man’s DeSean Jackson and if you know what I think of Jackson, well, that says it all.
Follow me on Twitter @ThePigskinGuy
i love marshall as well and also have him at #3 in my ppr rankings,i’ll be targeting eric decker in every draft this yr as demarius gets the hype,love dhb as a wr3 this yr while denarius moore gets the hype
HeyBay’s gotta move up!
He missed 4 games and still almost popped 1000 last year, and didn’t even have Palmer in a game till week 9 honestly. I know i have him ranked higher than most, but no way he can’t make top 25 this year.
Torrey, Flacco doesn’t throw enough. Garcon, new QB and new home. Rice, new QB. Britt, too hurt. Meachem, new home and new QB. I can’t take any of those guys ahead of HeyBay now that he has a QB willing to toss it up to him. He got 8,9,10,11, and 17 targets from week 12-17. I know 17 doesn’t count, but bottom line he’s willing to throw it to him. He caught 64 of 115 targets, 74% last year. I don’t know if thats high, but it sure seems good. If he averages 8 targets a game in 2012, and caches 5 of them, which would be a conservative estimate, at 15YPC he’ll put up 1200. I think 77 catches, 1100 yards, and 6 scores is completely obtainable, and puts him at 21 on my WR list, 54th overall.
…Jesus, it never ends! Britt just got popped for a DUI. Kenny’s off my WR list altogether now.
I do like DHB and I can’t complain if you have him ranked that high. I can certainly see him putting up the numbers you predicted. The guy is going in Round 11. That is God damn robbery. I don’t get it at all.
I’ve seen him go as early as late round 9, but its right around 6 or 7 he starts to have value with my projections. I think i’d drop a late round 7 on him as my WR2. Who’s really going to be left after him? At that point around 30WR’s are gone, and you’re looking at Crabtree, Holmes, Boldin, Moss? We know what there caps are. Even in a wacky year for the Raiders DHB put up better numbers. He totally did the third year brake out thing everyone looks for, tripled his production in year 3. Honestly, if he doesn’t make it back to me late 7 i would have to give someone kudos on the pick.
Biggest obstacles to a full DHB break-out are the presence of both DMoore and JFord. Palmer absolutely gushes over Moore and many believe he will be the teams #1 WR. Also, don’t forget that Ford was coming off a 5 catch/105 yd/1 TD game in Palmer’s 1st full game with the team after their bye week. The following week he was injured after catching a 41 yard bomb from Palmer in the 1st Q and missed the team’s next 6 games. DHB played very well down the stretch last season no doubt but I’m not sure he’ll get the same amount of targets and production because of his talented teammates. Still like his potential though and the potential for Palmer to surprise with a big season.
Nice list and article. Haha - if the DEN players pan out, you’re a fantasy genius, if not, your health issues clouded your judgement. You may have a future in politics Mr. Casale.
And speaking of Washington (nice segue huh?), Nate needs to keep moving way up the draft board - Kenny Britt arrested early morning for a DUI. He should be suspended for at least 6 games. To me, Nate Wash is the #1 WR on TEN and belongs in the top 30.
I’m also liking Miles Austin in the top 10. Whenever Romo and Austin are both healthy & playing together, Austin puts up great #’s. Look back at the game logs over the past 3 seasons. Add in a possible Dez Bryant suspension and I’ll gladly take him in round 5 as my #1 WR.
Also liking Dwayne Bowe closer to 10 than 20. He was a top 12 WR last season until Cassell went down and now both he and Cassell are playing out this season for big contracts. I’m liking his chances of finishing closer to his 2010 totals than 2011.
Wow, didn’t even see the Britt arrest. So one day after releasing my RB rankings Lynch gets arrested for a DUI. Then one day after I release my WR rankings Britt gets arrested for a DUI. Interesting. Who’s next?
Maybe you have some kinda alternate superhero special power or something. Go ahead and rank head coaches or something just to see what happens.
Good list BTW. Nerd, nice dig on DHB. I will be looking for him late.
guys…don’t sleep on LaFell either. excellent value that late. you’ll start him from time to time…get better soon, Pigskin. we’re pullin for ya
Thanks a lot Eric and I actually looked long and hard at LaFell this time around. I really wanted to move him up but something keeps holding me back for some reason. I think you may be right though. He has the looks of being a breakout guy. I’ll have to dig a little deeper into him for next time. Thanks for the feedback.
awesome as usual… wait weren’t you supposed to be taking a bit of a break? still cranking out all this info & value. thank you! this list “rings true” to me… stuff like maclin so far ahead of DeSean (the eagles #1), jennings being lower than jordy, roddy > julio (hyped too much elsewhere),and antonio brown > wallace. you’re not afraid to go against the grain and take a position and that’s just one of the reasons i’ve loved following your blog. thanks dude.
Thanks Johnny. I go with what I think. One problem I have with other fantasy sites is too much stuff looks the same, despite the fact so much change from year to year. Take just the comments on this blog. We all have different opinions. Yet 90% of fantasy sites think the same way about players. It’s like people are afraid to make a mistake. I’m assuming you know I’m not perfect and I’m just telling you what I think. People have to stop worrying about being wrong all the time. I don’t want to be wrong but I’m going to be wrong sometimes. Trust me, I used to be a gambler. If I was right 90% of the time I would still be doing that and not trying to predict how many balls Eric Decker is going to catch. Football changes every year. I just look at situations and try to figure out where some of those changes will occur the best I can. Thanks again.
Is there much movement in your rankings if it was based on standard scoring (non-PPR)? As someone else said, your rankings “ring true” to me, and I want to make sure I bring the right set of rankings in on draft day… Thanks!
Not much Randy. Decker would move down a couple of spots to maybe 14 or 15 in a non-PPR but there isn’t a huge difference. Where PPR and non-PPR makes a big difference is with a guy like Darren Sproles. If you aren’t going to get points for his receptions then you need to drop him at least 10 spots from where I have him ranked at RB. But with receivers I don’t see a player with that big of gap. I think I would rank these guys pretty close in either scoring system. Maybe move Brandon Lloyd a few spots in a non-PPR.
TC, why disrespect Andre Johnson like this?
What do you mean? I have him as a solid second round pick. I think it’s more respect for the five guys ahead of him and concern over his quarterback situation. I wouldn’t say I’m disrespecting him. I still have him as a Top 22 pick.
Brandon Marshall has not done anything to deserve a ranking higher than Andre,Andre Johnson is also in a better situation than Fitzgerald,his ceiling is also much higher than Welker’s.
AJ Green is also just potential at this point. The ranking does not compute.
Well, you are welcome to rank Johnson higher. It’s all subjective. It’s all personal opinion but to say rankings don’t compute because we see a guy three spots apart is a bit much. We are basically talking about a difference of 10 draft slots. And to say Marshall hasn’t done anything is just ridicolous. The guy caught 81 balls for 1,214 yards and 6 scores playing in Miami last year. He also has three 100+ catch seasons and five straight 1,000+ yard seasons. If that’s nothing and doesn’t compute then I’m not sure what you’re talking about. Marshall’s numbers actually compare pretty favorably to Johnson over the years.
And you said I’m ranking Green on potential. That’s accurate but my reply would be do you have Michael Turner and Frank Gore rated ahead of Ryan Mathews? If you don’t then you are ranking on potential too. Everyone ranks on potential because things change from year-to-year. I know one thing, people who drafted Gronk and Jimmy Graham last year based on potential were pretty happy how things turned out. It’s all about how you see things going for the upcoming season. You obviously like AJ a little more than i do but I still like him. That’s why I have him at six.
I think you’re both too in love with AJ, but Rio you might need a restraining order. I have him at WR 16 dude, 45 overall. You might want to check what the Texans have turned into on offense, and re-watch both games he went down without a soul touching him last year. Dues coming off a 33 catch season, i see much reason for pause. Not to mention he’s never had a 10 TD season in his career. He’s on the wrong side of 30, and Marshall was every bit the fantasy receiver AJ was when he had Cutler.
It’s July, I’m in love with a lot of people right now. By October I’ll hate pretty much everyone, especially myself.