I continue to update my position rankings with a look at running backs. I feel the running backs are finally starting to fall into place for me. This was the first time I really felt good after I was done ranking them since I started back in April. So as of mid-July I’m feeling good with quarterbacks, running backs and tight ends. That just leaves receivers. Don’t even get me started on receivers. Anyway, here are my updated Top 75 fantasy running backs for 2012.
2012 Fantasy Running Back Rankings
(Last updated on July 15)
Rankings are based on a 12-team league flex format with 1 point awarded per reception
1. Arian Foster, Texans
2. LeSean McCoy, Eagles
3. Ray Rice, Ravens
4. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars
5. Ryan Mathews, Chargers
6. Chris Johnson, Titans
7. Darren McFadden, Raiders
8. Marshawn Lynch, Seahawks
9. Matt Forte, Bears ↑
10. DeMarco Murray, Cowboys
11. Trent Richardson, Browns
12. Jamaal Charles, Chiefs ↑
13. Darren Sproles, Saints
14. Ahmad Bradshaw, Giants
15. Steven Jackson, Rams
16. Adrian Peterson, Vikings ↓
17. Fred Jackson, Bills
18. Reggie Bush, Dolphins ↑
19. Frank Gore, 49ers
20. Michael Turner, Falcons
21. James Starks, Packers ↑
22. Roy Helu, Redskins ↑
23. Jahvid Best, Lions
24. Doug Martin, Bucs ↓
25. Jonathan Stewart, Panthers ↑
26. Stevan Ridley, Patriots ↑
27. Beanie Wells, Cardinals ↓
28. Isaac Redman, Steelers
29. Shonn Greene, Jets
30. Peyton Hillis, Chiefs
31. C.J. Spiller, Bills
32. BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Bengals↓
33. Michael Bush, Bears ↓
34. LeGarrette Blount, Bucs ↑
35. Willis McGahee, Broncos
36. Ronnie Hillman, Broncos
37. Mark Ingram, Saints
38. Toby Gerhart, Vikings ↑
39. Donald Brown, Colts
40. Ben Tate, Texans
41. Mikel Leshoure, Lions
42. David Wilson, Giants
43. Ryan Williams, Cardinals ↑
44. Shane Vereen, Patriots
45. Kendall Hunter, 49ers ↑
46. DeAngelo Williams, Panthers
47. Felix Jones, Cowboys
48. Jacquizz Rodgers, Falcons ↑
49. Isaiah Pead, Rams
50. Pierre Thomas, Saints
51. Rashad Jennings, Jaguars
52. Mike Goodson, Raiders
53. LaMichael James 49ers
54. Mike Tolbert, Panthers
55. Rashard Mendenhall, Steelers
56. Daniel Thomas, Dolphins ↓
57. Ronnie Brown, Chargers ↑
58. Javon Ringer, Titans ↑
59. Jason Snelling, Falcons
60. Bernard Scott, Bengals
61. Dion Lewis, Eagles ↓
62. Kevin Smith, Lions
63. Brandon Jacobs, 49ers
64. Evan Royster, Redskins
65. Alex Green, Packers
66. D.J. Ware, Giants
67. Delone Carter, Colts ↓
68. Christopher Ivory, Saints ↑
69. Brandon Jackson, Browns ↑
70. Tim Hightower, Redskins ↓
71. Lamar Miller, Dolphins ↑
72. Joe McKnight, Jets ↑
73. Bernard Pierce, RB Ravens
74. Robert Turbin, Seahawks
75. Vic Ballard, Colts ↑
Just Missed
Lance Ball, Broncos
Taiwan Jones, Raiders
Danny Woodhead, Patriots
Terrance Ganaway, Jets
Le’Ron McClain, Chargers
Brandon Saine, Packers
Going Up
Forte - This is assuming Forte signs by Monday. Reports say he’s close to signing a long-term deal. I’m posting this the day before, so I’m betting that a deal is going to get done. If it does, Forte moves up to No. 9 on my board even with Michael Bush in town. Forte simply catches too many passes in a PPR format that you can’t downgrade him much for losing short touchdowns to Bush. I say if Forte plays 16 games he could catch 70 balls this year. New offensive coordinator Mike Tice wants Jay Cutler getting the ball out much quicker this year and that means more passes to the running backs. I’m actually pretty high on Forte, even with the Bears adding Bush. Remember, Darren McFadden put up some pretty good numbers last September with Bush stealing touchdowns. It’s not the end of the world.
Starks - I liked Starks coming out of the draft a couple of years ago and I’m still high on him. The Packers will never run the ball a lot but I think Starks’ skill-set is a good fit for Green Bay’s offense. Now with Ryan Grant out of the way, Starks should post career bests across the board in 2012. If he doesn’t, it’s a problem. With an ADP of Round 6 in PPR leagues, Starks offers some good value for fantasy owners. Everything is in place for Starks to have the best season of his career and getting the Packers starting running back in the sixth round isn’t bad. I do like Alex Green as well but right now Starks is clearly the man in Green Bay. I think he’s being undervalued a little bit.
Helu - I was thinking more and more about the Redskins backfield and Tim Hightower is trash. He may steal a few reps away from Helu early on in the season but to be honest I’m more worried about Evan Royster. If Helu stays healthy he’s going to rush for over 1,000 yards and catch 50 balls. Listen, Mike Shanahan has to win now before more people figure out he’s only won one playoff game since John Elway retired. If he wants to start being a better head coach than Wade Phillips again, Shanahan will give the ball to Helu and sit Hightower’s average ass on the bench where it belongs.
Ryan Williams – I had Williams ranked as a Top 15 player coming out of the 2011 draft and I’m still very high on him, despite the fact that he injured his knee in the preseason and never played a down. I said after he was drafted that once Wells got injured (a mathematical certainty), Williams would come in and never give up the starting job. We would have had a chance to test that theory if not for Williams’ injury. Now we’re basically back to square one this season. I love Williams’ running style. He’s a punishing runner in the Marion Barber mold. We know Wells will go down at some point (again, a mathematical certainty), so if Williams is healthy, he’s going to have a big role in the Cardinals offense this season. Also, dynasty league owners should be all over Williams assuming his knee checks out in training camp.
Coming Down
Peterson - To me Peterson going roughly in the Top 20 picks of a PPR league is too high. First of all, we don’t even know if Peterson will be healthy to start the season. I know knee injuries are like a flesh wound these days but I still think it will take Peterson about a month to get back to normal. I expect Toby Gerhart to be involved heavily on passing downs and that simply hurts Peterson’s overall value too much for me to pay a mid-second round price tag in a PPR format.
Ingram - Ingram’s latest knee procedure isn’t expected to be serious but three knee surgeries in three years is never a good sign for a running back. Now the Saints aren’t sure if Ingram will even be ready for training camp. That’s too many red flags for me when we’re talking about a guy that plays in a crowded backfield and is getting selected in Round 7 on average. Plus, Darren Sproles is usually on the field when the Saints throw the ball. I don’t know if you’ve ever watched the Saints play but they tend to throw the ball every now and then.
Daniel Thomas - I’ve never been a big Thomas fan. The thing I pointed out about Thomas coming out of college is he’s way too tentative running between the tackles. I think that criticism was justified considering Thomas was one of the worst short yardage backs in the NFL last year. Remember people claiming Thomas was this great goal line back? Well, he scored zero rushing touchdowns as a rookie despite getting at least 11 carries (ones I saw personally) from inside the 5-yard line. I’m awful at math but even I know a 0% success rate isn’t very good.Thomas’ current ADP puts him in Round 9 and that’s too high for me. Thomas didn’t look like an NFL running back when I watched him at Kansas State and he didn’t look like one as a rookie. He’ll need to get a lot better fast to help fantasy owners this season and beyond.
Dion Lewis - The next time Lewis gets arrested can it not be in Albany, NY? I live near Albany and now every day when I turn on the local news they’re still talking about it. You know, it’s bad enough I have to hear the non-stop Jimmer Fredette stories (He’s from Glens Falls, NY) on the news every week with them conveniently leaving out the fact that Jimmer was a monumental bust in his first NBA season.You mean Jimmer isn’t the next Larry Bird? But he’s white and he’s made a three-point shot in his life. For Christ sakes, Lewis calls in a fake fire? You’re in the NFL, Dion, you’re not me in college. To think, this is the same guy I predicted would win the Heisman Trophy a couple of years ago. Now he’s the lead story on my local news right before the kid I used to go to school with getting busted for selling weed. Nice job buddy.
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Daniel Thomas=Shonne Green.It’s Miller Time. This is another big reason I am high on Lamar Miller PG. The other is that Reggie Bush cannot stay healthy. I know you are not big on Miller’s skills, but I really like him,. People watching him in OTAs said he “showed explosive change-of-direction ability”. I have heard that he is a pretty dense guy who will take time to fully grasp the pro game, but I think he is in the perfect offensive scheme to suit his talents and he will get the opportunity to show them. I would bet by midseason, he will be splitting carries with Thomas.
You love Miller. lol I like him more if they use him in different ways. I don’t think he’s a 25 carry back in the NFL. If they use him as a return man/receiver and running back, then I’m more on board than him being used simply as a primary running back like people were talking about when the draft process began.
How many RBs are 20-25/wk guys? Is Jamal Charles or Ronnie Hillman that kind of back? David Wilson? And the Dolphins say they are going to use him this way and that way, but no one knows for sure what will happen. At this point, i am like everyone else speculating on every rookie. I am looking at their talent and performance, past and current (really talking about other people’s opinions about their performance since most of us don’t get to watch these guys in OTAs). Then you look at their situation. I would say Miller’s situation is as good as Helu’s was going to the Redskins last year. He is the most physically gifted back in the stable right now. Thomas sucks and Bush will probably end up getting injured at some point. I would say he projects more as the lead back in a 2 man platoon, similar to Charles.
No but early in the draft process he was being talked about as a Trent Richardson kind of back. And yes, I have no doubt that David Wilson can carry the load in the NFL. I don’t have him and Miller in the same hemisphere personally. I’ve never seen Miller make a move in my life like Charles. I still say he’s Felix Jones. That’s not the end of the world for a fourth round pick though. We’ll see how it plays out. I’ve been dead wrong before and I will be again. That much I know for sure.
Although, I do agree with your overall thinking. Thomas does suck and Bush could very well get hurt, so Miller is in a good situation like you pointed out. If he’s able to make the most of that opportunity, he could end up being a nice fantasy surprise this year. I would be much less shocked if Miller was a fantasy stud than Thomas. I think Thomas blows.
I really think that Starks has to come down a few notches in your standings. He is a pedestrian talent at best and his two career TDs don’t instill a lot of confidence in me believing that he is due to break out. He had ample opportunity to take the job over completely last year and couldn’t outplay an equally bad Ryan Grant. Throw in his inability to stay healthy and the Packs pass happy offense and Starks becomes a bye week fill or flex play at best. I think that Doug Martin (who is 3 spots lower) will easily out preform Starks this year. Worst case scenario is that Martin splits carries with Blount in a presumably run first offense. This should yield far more chances for fantasy success than Starks will ever see, and that’s my two cents…for what it’s worth.
looking forward to your next post and let’s start training camp already! I need some football news!
Thanks for the feedback Kenzie. I agree that Starks is pedestrian but I think if he stays healthy he can be a Joseph Addai kind of player and I thought Addai was the most pedestrian running back in NFL history. I don’t know if he’ll necessary “break out” but I think he can put up enough production in a great offense to help fantasy owners.
Any chance you’ll put up some standard non-ppr rankings before the season?
I’ll try Mike. It’s just tough because I’m the only person doing the rankings and I only have so much time. I’ll see what I can do do.
Could you rank these five backs in a twelve-team flex format but non-ppr - Sproles, Bradshaw, S. Jackson, Peterson, Turner? I think I like Bradshaw the most, assuming his foot isn’t an issue to start the season. I’m concerned with Sproles duplicating his production from last year unless he sees a few more touches. I think Jackson is starting to break down physically but there’s something to be said for an every-down back in today’s NFL. Peterson has the health concerns obviously, and Turner’s facing a reduced workload but I think he might have one more good year left. I’m likely to have to choose from this group for my rb2 in my main league.
I would go Bradshaw, Jackson and then Peterson. I think it’s close in a non-PPR format but I would give Bradshaw a slight edge over Jackson now with Jacobs gone. One thing people don’t realize about Bradshaw (including the Giants coaches for some reason) is that he’s actually very good near the goal line. I think his touchdowns go way up this year. Tough call between those three but I think either one would be a good choice as a RB2 in a non-PPR league. Good luck.
Thanks for the response. I agree with you on Bradshaw - I think he’s being underrated by most people this year. Jackson worries me though - he’s logged over 2100 carries and 2500 total touches in his career and has topped six touchdowns once in the past five years. I’ll probably take Bradshaw if he’s there or swing for the fences with Peterson. Thanks again - love the blog.
Nice list Tom. Always great reads and input.
History shows that teams tend to run much more with a rookie QB.
I see Helu being even higher based on that trend. Royster is a threat though.
I also see your favorite Donald Brawn being higher based on the same trend….Could be a great flex or 4th RB in a PPR.
Thanks Tommy. I may be too low on Brown because he burned me so bad before. It’s just human nature that after promoting a guy hard like I did Brown you are a little cautious to do it again. I think he’ll have a chance, now he just needs to make the most of it. I like Helu more and more everyday.
PG, If Wilson is going to be a workhorse back in the league, he’s going to have to adjust his style a bit IMO. He runs like Peterson, but is built like McCoy. Won’t stay healthy if he continues to run reckless.
Well, that’s what makes all this so much fun Irish. We get to watch all these guys over the next few years and see what happens. Just think, there are a couple Victor Cruz like players out there we are all missing that may be better than both guys. It’s an inexact science. What I like in a certain player, you may not like. You may see something in Miller that I don’t. I always have strong opinions but I never claim to be any kind of scout. Being a scout is hard. I’m just a guy who watches football. I do think Wilson can carry the load but you are right, there aren’t many backs who do that anymore in the NFL.
I’m always right dammit!!!…..LOL, if only that were true i would be a millionaire.. I love football.Tom, I wish you the best man. I hope everything turns out for the best and I look forward to more debates in the future.
I may have a deal in the works in my dynasty league to trade Roy Helu, Owen Daniels and possibly a depth player to be named later for pick 1.5…..given teams picking 1-4 needs i am thinking that WIlson may be of the board as well as Martin (and TRich of course). not sure what to do. Starters: Foster, Mathews and Ridley in the flex/
I could use a new QB to groom or a future dominant wideout like Floyd. Suggestions PG?
Can you give me your overall roster first? Thanks.
QB Tom Brady, NE QB K P
RB Ryan Mathews, SD RB K
RB Arian Foster, Hou RB K
RB/WR Roy Helu, Wsh RB K P
WR Randy Moss, SF WR K
WR Eric Decker, Den WR K P
TE Fred Davis, Wsh TE K
Bench Owen Daniels, Hou TE
Bench Stevan Ridley, NE RB K
Bench Alex Green, GB RB K Q
Bench Julius Thomas, Den TE Q
Bench Dion Lewis, Phi RB
Bench Danario Alexander, StL WR
Bench Damian Williams, Ten WR
Bench Kevin Smith, Det RB K
Bench Riley Cooper, Phi WR
Bench Brandon Saine, GB RB
Bench Golden Tate, Sea WR P
Bench Kahlil Bell, Chi RB
Bench John Skelton, Ari QB
Bench Jonathan Dwyer, Pit RB
Bench Joe Webb, Min QB
Bench Andre Roberts, Ari WR
So if I’m hearing you right this trade would basically come down to Helu for either Luck or RGIII. Is that correct?
Probably or else Floyd or Kendall Wright. Pretty high on Wright. There is a chance that I get Wilson, but it looks like there would be 3 teams in front of me with a serious need at RB. The other point is, I already traded away my 1st rounder last season, so my 1st pick isn’t until 2.1./#13 overall. The only reason i am even considering this is that I don’t trust the Shanahans. I can just picture them mixing in Royster and Hightower diluting Helu’s value, making him inconsistent from week to week.
This could jeopardize my playoff chances, but I think Ridley could do pretty well in the flex. Even if he is in a similar timeshare, his projected role as an early down and goal line back should be solid.
I guess it boils down to do I reduce the depth at RB and hurt my chances at making the post season to get an elite QB (potentially) or WR?
I like Helu this year. Having said that, I’m not sure he’s built for long-term success. He’s almost always shared the load with another back. I think he’s the kind of guy that could have 1-2 nice years but could also battle a lot of injuries. I do think you are hurting your chances this season but I would consider making the deal. I like the possibilities of it over the long haul. However, I wouldn’t add much more to the deal. Helu and Daniels is a lot as it is.
Thanks PG. Now, given my roster and the fact that it is dynasty, if the trade is executed would you go Wilson, if he is available or QB (Luck, RGIII). Kendall Wright could also be a good pick as he seems to be generating quite a buzz and looks like he will get a good amount of targets right off the bat. Considering that Britt is still recovering from his knee problems and if you look at what else the Titans have at receiver he could become a favorite target of Hasselback.
I would go Wilson, Wright or RGIII.
Wow. RGII or Wright over Luck. Not too excited about Luck long term huh?
No I am. I was thinking he would be off the board. Who are you thinking will be taken before your pick?
If I pick at 5 I think 3 RBs will be taken and 1 QB. Kind of a toss up as to which QB though. I think they will both be pretty good.
Right, so I was assuming Luck would be off the board, that’s why I didn’t list him.
How’s your love for Hillman panning out so far? Any good camp news? Any bad? Have you adjusted your thoughts on him at all?
I’m kind of waiting for camp and preseason to start. I think we’ll have a better read by mid-August. I think Lance Ball is the guy we have to watch. In my opinion he’s the one that will keep Hillman on the bench early in the season if he outplays him, so watch that battle in camp and in the preseason.