The Pigskin Guy

Source: Raiders.com

Is this the year Darrius-Heyward-Bey becomes a fantasy stud? Which Broncos receiver will end up having the most fantasy value? Will Mike Shanahan be up to his usual tricks this season? I answer those questions and more in this week’s edition of The Fantasy 5.

1. I’m seeing a lot of love for Darrius Heyward-Bey. Is this the year he breaks out and becomes a fantasy stud?

I don’t know if Heyward-Bey is going to be a stud but I think he has a good chance to register career highs in catches, receivers and touchdowns. In other words, Heyward-Bey could be a Top 20 fantasy receiver in 2012.

I stated from the moment he was drafted that Al Davis put Heyward-Bey in an awful position. Heyward-Bey should have never been drafted that high and expected to come in and be a starting receiver. He was much too raw in college. I thought Heyward-Bey would have made a great second round pick. He had a ton of speed but Heyard-Bey wasn’t asked to run a lot of different routes in college and his hands have never been great. When the Raiders selected Heyward-Bey so high they put the kid in a can’t win situation because he wasn’t ready mentally or physically to take on such a big role.

I thought coming out of college Heyward-Bey was similar to Sidney Rice, a receiver selected in Round 2 where he should have gone. I figured give Heyward-Bey a couple of years of working on his route-running and a team may have something. Last season Heyward-Bey finally started putting it all together, catching 64 passes for 975 yards and four scores in 15 games.

The really encouraging sign was what Heyward-Bey did in his final four games once he and Carson Palmer built some chemistry. In his last four games Heyward-Bey caught 26 passes for 433 yards and two touchdowns. Almost half of Heyward-Bey’s production last season came in those final four games, so there is a reason he’s getting a lot of love.

I currently have Heyward-Bey ranked as my 37th fantasy receiver but now that I think about it that’s too low. I’m one of those people who comes to revelations as I write and Heyward-Bey will be moving up in my next receiver rankings. Another reason he’s a little low is because I’m in love with Denarius Moore, who I currently have at 33. Over the next couple of months though my guess is Heyward-Bey will settle around No. 25 at receiver for me. I think that’s a good area for people to rank him heading into the season.

If he stays healthy Heyward-Bey should finally eclipse 1,000 yards and he has a chance to double his touchdown total from 2011.

2. In your latest WR rankings you have Demaryius Thomas ranked 13 and Eric Decker 16. Is there a chance Decker will overtake Thomas at some point?

Yes, it”s only a matter of time. Listen, I was on Decker the day after he was drafted by the Broncos. I liked him as a rookie. I liked him even more last year. Now I think Decker is in position to become a Top 10 fantasy receiver with Peyton Manning under center.

I still like Thomas too but Decker and Manning have been working a lot together and I think we can all see where this is going. The year I backed Austin Collie and selected him in Round 8 to the laughter of every other owner in my league, my reasoning was Manning started to trust Collie at the end of his rookie season and then spent all summer working with him. Other people were projecting Pierre Garcon to have a big year but I always claimed that Manning didn’t really trust Garcon. He isn’t a great route-runner, so Manning won’t look to him as often as he will a Collie or Reggie Wayne.

Well, I obviously laughed last. Collie wasn’t only good, he was the No. 1 fantasy receiver until getting injured. If Decker stays healthy I think we see him explode this season. He was already a good route runner and Manning has been raving about him. People need to understand that the more Manning trusts a receiver to always be in the right spot, the more passes that receiver is going to see come his way. I think Decker will catch 90 balls this year.

Our main problem is the mainstream media is catching on to the close relationship between Manning and Decker. Right now I would advise grabbing Decker in Round 4 or 5 just to be safe but that could go up depending on how much attention Decker gets from now until August. Thomas is going to put up strong fantasy numbers too but everything is pointing to Decker having a monster season. I think he’s going to end up being the best call of my 13-year fantasy career.

3. You are really high on Roy Helu in Washington. Did you forget Mike Shanahan is still coaching the Redskins?

No I haven’t but as big of a jerk that Shanahan can be at times he has gone with primarily one back when he’s had a stud at the position. Terrell Davis and Clinton Portis both had some huge seasons under Shanahan. Even Mike Anderson and Olandis Gary got most of the touches when they had their big years in Denver.

Helu actually reminds me a lot of Portis. I think the two have a very similar running style. I know Helu can run and catch. He proved that at the end of last season. I believe his fantasy value is going to come down to how he does as a pass protector. Helu didn’t do a lot of pass blocking at Nebraska and he struggled with it early as a rookie. If Helu has improved in that area it’s going to be hard for Shanahan to take him off the field.

The Redskins struggled to generate big plays last year. You give me a backfield consisting of Robert Griffin and Helu and that problem should be solved. Like I said with Decker, it looks to me like everything is in place for Helu to have a big year, assuming he’s not a liability as a blocker.

4. I’m a fanatic so I watch the NFL Draft until the very end. Give me a guy expected to be selected on the third day that could be a fantasy sleeper so I can keep on eye on where he lands.

How about Baylor RB Terrance Ganaway? In the last two weeks I’ve watched four Baylor games over from last season. I did it to see more of Robert Griffin and Kendall Wright. But what happened was I kept asking myself, “Is there a reason I don’t like Ganaway?” The answer turned out to be a resounding no.

Ganaway is a monster . He didn’t run a great 40 at the NFL Combine but that’s not surprising. Ganaway’s game isn’t predicated on straight-line speed. It’s running people over. It’s bringing the pain to defensive backs later in the game. I will say though that Ganaway may not have long speed but he’s very quick at hitting the hole. For a 242-pound battering ram, I’m more interested in Ganaway’s initial burst than his speed down the field.

Ganaway did improve his 40-time at his pro day but again, it’s not all that important to me. Let’s say he runs a 4.6. Does anyone know what Natrone Means’ 40-time was? Ganaway’s running style reminds me a little of Means, a player I loved growing up. Like Means, Ganaway isn’t only physical he has very good balance. When Ganaway collides with a defender he does a good job of keeping his balance and gaining extra yards.

I’ve talked a lot about smaller backs like Ronnie Hillman and LaMichael James. It’s my contention that in today’s NFL of specialized backs those guys have a lot of value because even if they don’t carry the ball 25 times a game, they’ll still have a role. The same thing holds true for a bigger back like Ganaway. He may not get 350 carries a year but he has the skills to carve out a role in an NFL offense and thus help fantasy owners.

I would keep a close eye on where Ganaway gets drafted. Let’s say, for instance, the Giants don’t select a back early and take Ganaway in Round 5. New York is looking to replace a big back in Brandon Jacobs, so Ganaway could come right in and fill that role as a rookie. If a team is looking for a big bruising back with some upside later on in the draft, Ganaway is their man.

5. What other fantasy sites other than your own do you visit regularly?

I get asked this question all the time but honestly, I don’t read a lot of other fantasy stuff. Right now I’ll look at some rankings to compare them with mine but I don’t really read a lot of fantasy articles. I like to form my own opinions based on what I see and I don’t like to have outside influences make me alter my original thoughts. I’ write The Fire Sale for Sports Grumblings and SI.com, so I support those sites but I would be lying if I said I went there and read all of the articles.

One great source I came across recently is FantasyRundown.com. In full disclosure I found the site because it started linking to my blog but now I go to it every single day. Basically they do all the work for you. Fantasy Rundown has daily links to a bunch of different fantasy articles on the web. It has links to updated rankings too. It’s really one of the best resources I’ve come across for finding all of your fantasy info in one place, so I would advise checking them out.