The Pigskin Guy

Source: extremeskins.com

What should fantasy owners do about the Buccaneers backfield? Will Blaine Gabbert be the downfall of every offensive player in Jacksonville? Is it time to give up on Frank Gore? I answer those questions and more in this week’s edition of The Fantasy 5.

1. What do we make of Tampa Bay’s backfield? Is Doug Martin now the guy to own?
There’s no doubt about it. I’ve been saying two things for the past month about LeGarrette Blount. First, I don’t believe new coach Greg Schiano likes him. You have to understand something about Schiano. He’s an old school kind of coach. I just don’t think Blount is his kind of player, that’s why he’s been looking to replace him ever since he arrived in Tampa Bay.

Second, I’ve stated many times that in my opinion Blount and Shonn Greene aren’t feature backs. We like to refer to smaller guys as “complementary backs” but the same can hold true for bigger running backs too. I believe Blount is better suited for the Marion Barber role; where he comes in when a defense is tired and delivers the knockout blow. My guess is Schiano feels the same way.

Now Blount still has fantasy value. The Bucs are going to run the ball a lot this season. However, Martin looks like the one that will be on the field more. He’s a better receiver and blocker than Blount and Martin just brings more versatility to the offense. Plus, Martin was one of the guys in the draft who’s immediately ready to come in and be the primary ball carrier for an NFL offense.

I had Blount ranked a few spots higher in my most recent running back rankings but that’s obviously changed over the last week. Martin is now the higher rated back and the one you want to grab first in fantasy drafts. He’ll crack the Top 25 in my next RB rankings.

2. Your entire reputation is riding on Eric Decker and Ronnie Hillman in Denver. What if Peyton Manning gets hurt?
Then basically I’m screwed. There’s no other way to put it. I think with Manning under center Decker will catch 80-90 balls this year and have a chance to be a Top 10 fantasy receiver. I’m more sure of that happening than any other fantasy call I’ve ever made. However, if Manning gets hurt, Decker’s fantasy value will obviously take a big hit with Caleb Hanie or Brock Osweiler throwing him the ball.

Hillman’s value would also take a hit but I think either way he’ll excel as a change-of-pace back at first before eventually becoming the Broncos starting running back at some point. Although, it’s an understatement to say I would prefer Manning to be the Broncos quarterback over a rookie or a guy that can’t play.

I’m going to trust John Elway on this one. I don’t think he would have put so much faith in Manning if he wasn’t convinced Peyton is 100% healthy. Can any player get hurt? Sure but those things are hard to predict. I do know one thing for certain; Manning has made a lot of guys fantasy studs in the past and he’ll do the same thing for the Broncos. If Manning plays 16 games, there will be a lot of fantasy gold in Denver this season. If he doesn’t, all the people that took my advice will string me up like Benito Mussolini.

3. Will Blaine Gabbert destroy the fantasy value of every player in Jacksonville?
Gabbert will be one of the biggest keys to to the upcoming fantasy season. Maurice Jones-Drew has already proven he can put up big numbers regardless of who is under center. Still, if Gabbert improves, it means Justin Blackmon and Laurent Robinson won’t fall off the fantasy map.

I didn’t like what I saw from Gabbert last year. I try not to judge young quarterbacks too quickly because not everyone is Cam Newton. However, I do look at pocket presence, decision making and the ability to make throws. Gabbert wasn’t impressive in any of those categories as a rookie.

One can argue that Jacksonville put Gabbert in before he was ready and didn’t provide him with enough weapons. That’s a valid argument. I don’t think we should close the book on the kid but this is obviously a big year for him. If Gabbert doesn’t show much improvement in 2012 the Jaguars will have to decide if they want to cut ties and pursue Matt Barkley in next year’s draft.

For fantasy purposes if Gabbert can just be average, Blackmon and Robinson will benefit. Remember, Blackmon is a rookie and Robinson was a third receiver in Dallas last year, so neither guy is going to be much of a fantasy factor if Gabbert is awful. In other words, they aren’t Calvin Johnson or Larry Fitzgerald.

I believe Gabbert will be better this year but he’ll have to be a lot better if fantasy owners are going to be able to rely on a Jacksonville receiver every week. I hope Gabbert makes the jump but if I were still a betting man I would bet on Jacksonville being major players in the Barkley sweepstakes next April.

4. Why isn’t Ravens TE Dennis Pitta getting more love?
To be completely honest, I don’t know. Most idiots like me have Ed Dickson rated a lot higher than Pitta but when I broke down the Ravens team after the draft I noticed the two were a lot closer in production last year than I realized.

Dickson caught 54 passes for 528 yards and five touchdowns in 2011. Pitta came in with 40 receptions for 405 yards and three scores. Dickson had problems with drops late in the year, including the playoffs. If you look at the last four games, Pitta caught 13 passes for 142 yards and 2 scores, compared to Dickson’s 8 catches for 89 yards and 2 touchdowns. While neither guy set the world on fire it was Pitta who was the more productive tight end at the end of the year.

I’m not saying we should run out and rank Pitta higher than Dickson but I do think he’s an intriguing sleeper. Remember, no team ran more two tight end sets last year than Baltimore, including the Patriots. Pitta isn’t going to all of a sudden turn into Rob Gronkowski but I also wouldn’t be stunned if he caught 60 balls from Joe Flacco this season. That’s not too shabby for a second tight end. Keep an eye on Pitta this summer. He’s being undervalued.

5. Should we just give up on Frank Gore?
Don’t jump the gun on downgrading Gore too much. I believe Gore is still going to get a majority of the carries in San Francisco, even with all the additions the 49ers made this offseason.

Keep in mind, adding Brandon Jacobs is like adding me. Jacobs is nothing more than a name people know. He sucks. LaMichael James weighs 60 pounds less than Jacobs and he’s a better short yardage and inside runner if that tells you anything. I believe James is the guy who will eventually end up stealing the most touches from Gore.

People keep mentioning Anthony Dixon. I have news for you, Dixon likely won’t even make the final roster. In my eyes Gore, James and Kendall Hunter are locks. That leaves Jacobs and Anthony Dixon fighting for the final spot. I would give the edge to Jacobs. As slow and soft as he is, Jacobs can still come in and run over a tired defense late in the game, so he isn’t completely useless yet. Don’t assume Jacobs is a lock to make the team though because he really declined last year.

I would knock Gore down your rankings a bit with the crowded backfield in San Fransisco but don’t go overboard. Less carries overall will keep Gore fresh and help him be a more effective back late in the season. If Gore slips to the fourth round of your draft I would strongly consider grabbing him. That’s a good spot to draft the lead dog in a run-oriented offense.

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