This will be my final mock draft of the season. I’m competing in the Pros vs. Joes 26 round draft at the end of the month. Then in August I will be holding my start-up dynasty league draft and my Fire Sale Fantasy League draft, so I’ll be posting the results from all three here.
In my first mock draft I waited to get a quarterback and ended up with Jay Cutler after I repeatedly missed out on guys I wanted. In my second mock I targeted a quarterback early on and grabbed Matthew Stafford in Round 2 but it cost me depth at the running back position. This time my strategy was to get a quarterback in the middle rounds. My plan was to target either Philip Rivers in Round 6 or if I missed out on him, Matt Ryan in Round 7.
This mock is from a FFPC 12-team draft at FantasyMoJo.com that includes a flex position and counts 1 point per reception. Oh, and for the record, I don’t draft kickers. I just pick one up before Week 1 and rotate kickers all season long. Last year I picked up a guy named David Akers. I cut him a week later but you get my point.
I picked in the three hole (My spot this year in the Fire Sale Fantasy League) and the draft lasted 16 rounds. Here’s how it played out for me:
Round 1 (3) - Ray Rice, RB Ravens
The No. 3 pick is the easiest spot to be in this year. I just sit back and wait to see which running back of Rice, Arian Foster and LeSean McCoy falls to me. This time it just happened to be Rice. That’s fine by me.
Round 2 (22) - Jamaal Charles, RB Chiefs
This pick came down to Charles or Darren Sproles. I opted for the upside of Charles over the 70+ reception consistency of Sproles. Both are really good options as a RB2 in PPR leagues but it’s hard to pass up on Charles as your second back, even with Peyton Hillis around. Tough call.
Round 3 (27) - Brandon Marshall, WR Bears
With two top running backs secured I was eying a receiver with this pick. I had plenty of good ones to choose from but I have Marshall ranked as my No. 3 fantasy receiver, so this was an easy call for me. Jay Cutler has had garbage to throw to since arriving in Chicago, so expect Marshall to see a ton of balls come his way this season.
Round 4 (46) - Jordy Nelson, WR Packers
I want to use this pick to make a point about Nelson that’s been bugging me. I keep reading where people are using stats and math to tell me why Nelson’s production will go down in 2012. They talk about number of targets and how many plays he’s on the field. Here’s the thing math doesn’t tell you though: Receivers in Green Bay’s offense don’t need a ton of targets to be productive. It’s more about the quality of opportunities, not the quantity. Aaron Rodgers tries to get his receivers singled up with man coverage and then take shots down the field, so while Nelson may not see a ton of targets, the ones he gets are quality targets. Brandon Lloyd is in a similar situation with the Patriots. Do you think he’s going to see 1,000 targets in that offense? No but Tom Brady is going to look for him down the field when he has man coverage, so the yards and touchdowns will come. The bottom line is since the Packers Super Bowl win over Pittsburgh Nelson has put up big numbers and I don’t see why that’s all of a sudden going to change, especially with Donald Driver another year older. If you want a guy that’s going to be on the field all the time so the math makes sense in the end, draft Devery Henderson. Let me know how that works out for you.
Round 5 (51) - Roy Helu, RB Redskins
I had a couple of quality options here with Helu, Jeremy Maclin and Aaron Hernandez available. I felt with the makeup of my team this was a good spot to take a chance on Helu as my RB3. Helu has a ton of upside and if he can overcome the human fantasy migraine known as Mike Shanahan, my running back trio of Rice, Charles and Helu will be deadly. I think Helu is a bit risky as a RB2 because of Shanahan but he looks really nice as your third option. Maclin and Hernandez are safer options but given the state of the running back position, I think this was the right call. In my last mock I passed on Maclin in hopes of getting Eric Decker later on but it didn’t work out in my favor. I’m taking the same chance this time around.
Round 6 (70) - Philip Rivers, QB Chargers
I was able to land my man Rivers in Round 6 and if he bounces back like I think he will, this team is really starting to come together. There are a lot of articles out right now about how Rivers is declining. I just don’t buy it. Drew Brees and Eli Manning are just two examples of quarterbacks that threw 20+ interceptions and responded with huge bounceback seasons. I can’t bury Rivers after one subpar year. I still believe he’s an elite NFL and fantasy quarterback.
Round 7 (75) - Eric Decker, WR Broncos
This time my gamble paid off and I landed Decker, so I’m really happy with the Helu pick now. I don’t know if my receiver rankings are accurate but if they are I grabbed my No. 3, 11 and 13 ranked guys at that position, despite not taking a receiver until the third round. So if you go by my cockeyed view on things, I’m pretty happy with the way the draft is playing out. Even if I’m a little off on Decker (80 receptions projection) I still think he’ll be productive enough with Peyton Manning to be a solid WR3. If I’m right on Decker then I just hit a home run.
Round 8 (94) - Pierre Garcon, WR Redskins
I’m not a huge fan of Garcon. I view him as kind of a poor man’s Mike Wallace. I don’t think he’ll ever catch a ton of passes but Garcon should provide enough big plays to rack up yards and touchdowns. Either way, I can live with him as my fourth receiver. It’s one of those picks I don’t love but I can swallow until I trade him away.
Round 9 (99) - Ronnie Hillman, RB Broncos
I had to grab Hillman in at least one of my mocks before people started to figure out I’m a fraud. In all seriousness, this is a good spot to get Hillman. He’s being a bit overvalued right now but Round 9 is a good place to grab a rookie running back with upside. My thoughts on Hillman have been well documented since before the draft, so I won’t bore you with them again. Let’s just say I like him.
Round 10 (118) - Jermaine Gresham, TE Bengals
When I passed on Hernandez in Round 5, Gresham instantly became my target at tight end. I gambled a bit when I took Hillman the pick before but Gresham still fell to me here. In my opinion Gresham is the best value in fantasy football right now. To get a guy with his skill level and breakout potential this late is stealing in my book. I have no problem with Gresham being my starting fantasy tight end.
Round 11 (123) - Pierre Thomas, RB Saints
I wanted to get one veteran running back later in the draft just in case I’m way off on Hillman and end up cutting him a couple of weeks into the season. Thomas is one of those perfect bench players. You never really want to start the guy but you can if you’re ever in a pinch. Thomas doesn’t have as much value as he once did with the emergence of Sproles but that value could always increase if Mark Ingram’s knees act up. I looked hard at Greg Little here but there are still a lot of quality receivers left on the board, so my thinking is grab a running back now and a receiver with my next pick.
Round 12 (142) - Michael Crabtree, WR 49ers
My strategy paid off. Little and Crabtree are two of the most undervalued receivers going in drafts right now, so I didn’t lose anything by passing on Little. I currently have Crabtree ranked at 35 and Little at 36, so both guys represent tremendous value this late in the draft according to my rankings. Listen, I’m not saying Crabtree will all of a sudden be the guy he was in college but as a WR4, or in my case a WR5, you can do a heck of a lot worse. I really like this pick.
Round 13 (147) - Joe Flacco, QB Ravens
This is classic Pigskin Guy. If you notice in all of my mocks, I never draft a great backup quarterback. There’s a method to my madness. I trade a lot during the season, so I don’t find it necessary to waste a higher draft pick on a Josh Freeman or Matt Schaub. I can always work one of those guys in a trade of I want them down the road. The other thing is if a Rivers or a Tom Brady gets hurt, Josh Freeman isn’t going to be my starter for the rest of the season. At that point I’m putting a guy like Charles on the market to get a quality quarterback. So I never really see the need to go after a top backup in Round 10 or 11. I think you can always get those guys if you need them.
Round 14 (166) - Vincent Brown, WR Chargers
Brown is my top sleeper for 2012, so I was pleased to get him this far down in the draft. I really believe Brown has the skills to emerge as the Chargers No. 1 receiver. Even if that doesn’t happen until next year, Brown should still get enough playing time to help fantasy owners this season. Word is Malcom Floyd is already questionable for Week 2 with a strained hamstring. I really like my depth at receiver.
Round 15 (171) - Dustin Keller, TE Jets
After taking Gresham in Round 10 I didn’t have a lot of opportunities to grab another tight end. I was hoping if I took Brown with my last selection Keller would last five more picks and he did. Keller is the epitome of a backup fantasy tight end. He isn’t consistent enough to start of every week but he’s productive enough to plug in from time-to-time. Keller caught 65 balls last season and his numbers have gone up in each of the last three years. I’ll take that in Round 15.
Round 16 (190) - Seahawks Defense
I’m going to be honest, I don’t start looking at defenses until early August. I remember the Seahawks created some turnovers last year and they keep telling me how every team in the league wanted to draft Bruce Irvin, so I went with them with my final pick.
Quarterbacks
Philip Rivers
Joe Flacco
Running Backs
Ray Rice
Jamaal Charles
Roy Helu
Ronnie Hillman
Pierre Thomas
Wide Receivers
Brandon Marshall
Jordy Nelson
Eric Decker
Pierre Garcon
Michael Crabtree
Vincent Brown
Tight Ends
Jermaine Gresham
Dustin Keller
Defense
Seattle Seahawks
Overall Thoughts
I’m pretty happy with this team overall and I think out of the three mocks, this is my best squad in terms of both top end talent and depth. I always try to end up with a team that gives me flexibility and I think this one does.
The two key players in my opinion are Rivers and Helu. If Rivers returns to his normal self I should be fine but if he doesn’t then I’ll obviously need to do something at quarterback. Helu could give me a formidable threesome at running back with Rice and Charles. If he becomes the feature back in Washington at some point, I expect him to put up big numbers and that will really put this team over the edge.
I love my depth at receiver and I’m fine with Gresham at tight end. If Helu ends up splitting time or Hillman falters I may need to move a receiver for a running back but overall I would be happy with this squad. Just keep in mind this is me drafting from the third spot and targeting a quarterback in the middle rounds. The Top 5 quarterbacks were off the board by my second round pick anyway but if a Matthew Stafford or Tom Brady were available at 22, I’m not saying I wouldn’t change my strategy. This is just one route to go and I think it landed me a pretty solid team that I can work with throughout the year.
Follow me on Twitter @ThePigskinGuy
I know your postion rankings but I havn’t seen a top 200 of all players ranked, would really like to see your opinion on who better than who @ all postions…
I will be coming out with something like that soon. Probably a Top 100 though.
When you rank players, do you come up with projections for them all? I never use to, but recently started to figure VBD per all my leagues exact settings. I had player ranks, but when i started messing with VBD software and looking at a players actual projected stats, it’s hard to keep the same order. I started to realize exactly what a player would have to do numbers wise in order to justify a rank, and realized i just had to move some guys around. Probably a good reality check. I’ve never drafted with one before, not even a mock, but it’s kind of amazing using a VBD program. Based on your projections and who’s left, it will point out players of value to target. Like if i don’t have a QB, and the last stud Cam goes off the board, due to my projections it’ll tell me a QB a few notches down from Cam is the one to target. Stuff i know we all do in our heads, but hey lets face it, we’re all human, and no do overs on D day. Something about seeing a program point out value, then you think about it and say,.. ‘hmm, damn things right.’ Well actually since anyone who uses it has to put in projections for every player in order for VBD to work, i guess the user is right, and the software is just like an alarm reminding me not to be wrong. Anyways,.. just toying with it changing the scoring settings, it’s crazy how different it will rank the top 100. If you do a top 100 id love to see projections too. No one does it that I’ve seen though so i won’t hold it against you if its a pain
I don’t use any kind of software. I’m not smart enough for that stuff. I do know people who use it though. The guy at Sports Grumblings is big on that stuff and he swears by it. He claims it’s pretty accurate, not only before the season but during it as well.
The first five picks woild be good for a 10 team league. I love Ray, Jamall, and B Marsh, but I am worried that Rivers has no receivers and cannot produce reasonable numbers this year.
I would argue that two years ago the Chargers were signing receivers off the street and Rivers led the NFL in passing yards and threw 30 touchdowns.That guy has been putting up big numbers with average receivers his entire career. If he has another poor season it’s because he’s all done.
Top 3 I feel are safe spots this year I feel like. Who would you have taken if you ended up in the 4 spot? Feel like 4&5 are sketchy. Maybe if MJD settles his contract issues, feel like its to early for a CJ or Matthews.
Probably Rodgers. I love Megatron but receiver is so deep this year I would have probably just secured Rodgers and been done with it.
Nice draft. If Charles can bounce back to near pre-injury form, then you are looking really good at RB for a PPR league. Agree completely on Rivers. He had a nice 2nd half last season and great QB’s bounce back all the time from down seasons. His WR/TE this year are deeper and better than his crew from 2010 when they were relying on guys like Patrick Crayton and Naanee.
I’m also really starting to like Garcon as a guy that you can get after round 7 that has the potential to really surprise and might flirt with top 10 WR #’s. The Shanahan’s have almost always gotten great production out of their #1 WR. Garcon’s speed and big play ability should mesh well with RGIII’s strong arm and scrambling ability, which will extend pass plays and give Garcon a chance to break free deep. I’m expecting some dud weeks but also am expecting a bunch of big weeks with 100+ yd & TD.
I thought Rivers would garner more love as the summer went on. Instead people are going the other way and talking about him like he’s Ryan Fitzpatrick. I know he burned a lot of owners last year but I just don’t think he’s done yet.