Source: ESPN.com
I’ve done a number of mock drafts and I thought I would post the results of one of them for discussion purposes. This is from a FFPC 12-team draft at FantasyMoJo.com that includes a flex position and counts 1 point per reception.
I wanted to give you the results of a draft that was not only very competitive but also didn’t go my way all the time. Often we have this blueprint going in but then things change once the actual draft takes place. This is one of those times where I missed out on a few players I wanted and therefore ended up with a draft I didn’t particularly love when it was all said and done.
Also, I went in targeting a quarterback early. Last time I posted a mock I waited on a quarterback, so I wanted to switch it up. Oh, and I don’t draft kickers. I just pick one up before the start of the season. Last year I picked up a guy named David Akers. I cut him a week later but you get my point.
I picked in the 10 hole and the draft lasted 16 rounds. Here’s how it played out for me in the 100th post here at The Pigskin Guy.
Round 1 (10) - Marshawn Lynch, RB Seahawks
What I realized in this mock is picking in the 10 hole sucks. There just isn’t any advantage this year in my opinion. I knew I was going to take a quarterback early but since I was targeting Matthew Stafford I figured I could wait until my next pick. This selection came down to Lynch and Larry Fitzgerald. I ended up going with Lynch, who was my top rated back left on the board. It’s not a spectacular pick but in that offense I think Lynch has a shot to run for 1,300 yards and double-digit scores.
Round 2 (15) - Matthew Stafford, QB Lions
With three quarterbacks already off the board, I knew if I wanted to stick to my grabbing a quarterback early strategy I had to take one with this pick. It came down to Stafford and and Cam Newton. I have Stafford rated as the No. 2 fantasy quarterback this year, so I went with him. Newton ended up going four picks later, making it five quarterbacks in the first 19 selections. Every league is different but on average the Top 5 quarterbacks aren’t getting out of the second round.
Round 3 (34) - Roddy White, WR Falcons
I believe White’s production will decline slightly this year with the emergence of Julio Jones but he’s still a No. 1 fantasy receiver in my book. Jones actually went two picks earlier. I was more than happy to snag White at pick 34 to be my top fantasy wideout.
Round 4 (39) - Jordy Nelson, WR Packers
The guy ahead of me did me a huge favor by selecting Dez Bryant and making this an easy call. When my selection was coming up I was trying to decide between Bryant and Nelson and he helped make my decision for me. Nelson my not score 15 times again but I think he’s emerged as Aaron Rodger’s favorite target. I love getting one of the Packers top receivers in Round 4. Nelson is a guy I’m starting to like more and more as we get closer to the season.
Round 5 (58) - Aaron Hernandez, TE Patriots
I had to do it. I was going to go running back here but when Hernandez was still on the board I pounced on him. I love Hernandez, that’s why he’s my No. 3 ranked tight end. Gronk is still the man but my guess is the gap between the two won’t be that big this season. The way the Pats use Hernandez by lining him up all over the place makes him one of the toughest matchups in the NFL right now.
Round 6 (63) - James Starks, RB Packers
Here’s where things started to break down for me. It’s not that I don’t like Starks but I took him over Jeremy Maclin. I usually draft by talent and not necessarily by position. I’m really high on Maclin and having him to go along with White and Nelson would have been deadly. However, I panicked a little bit because I only had one running back, so I went with Starks and gambled that I would be able to get Eric Decker with my next pick. However…
Round 7 (82) - Jonathan Stewart, RB Panthers
My gamble didn’t pay off. Decker went a few picks before mine in Round 7, so I settled for Stewart. My argument against taking Starks is I would much rather have Maclin and Stewart than Starks and Stewart. Torrey Smith also went off the board the pick ahead of me, so I decided to add another running back and grab a receiver at 87.
Round 8 (87) - Robert Meachem, WR Chargers
I don’t love this pick. It came down to Meachem and Reggie Wayne and I chose upside over proven production. Here’s the thing about Meachem; he may have a great year in San Diego but let’s not forget the Saints did use a first-round draft pick on him, so he got plenty of chances in New Orleans. This may pay off but in a perfect world I would want Meachem as my WR4, not my WR3.
Round 9 (106) - Sidney Rice, WR Seahawks
I was going to take Ronnie Hillman here but he actually went in the middle of Round 8. What the hell is going on? Does everyone read this stupid blog or something? Hillman is now overvalued. What a kick in the stones. I thought there was good value here with Rice. If things break right for Seattle they could have a pretty good offense. That’s one way of looking at it. The other way of looking at it is I have the No. 1 running back and No 1 receiver on an offense where Tarvaris Jackson could be the starting quarterback. Nice work.
Round 10 (111) - Jacquizz Rodgers, RB Falcons
This was one of my favorite picks in the draft. I’m really high on Rodgers this year in PPR leagues. I think the Falcons may use him like the Saints use Darren Sproles. At this point I’m looking for some running backs with upside and Rodgers fits that description for me.
Round 11 (130) - Shane Vereen, RB Patriots
Rodgers kicked off four picks in a row that I was really happy with for later round selections. Right now it appears Vereen is the co-starter in New England, so getting him in Round 11 is a pretty good deal. I mean there’s a chance if things fall right Vereen could actually outproduce Starks, who I took five rounds earlier.
Round 12 (135) - Jared Cook, TE Titans
I was looking in this area to get my second tight end and I was pretty happy to see Cook still on the board. It seems like we expect Cook to break out every summer but this may finally be the season when he puts it all together. Cook could be this year’s version of Hernandez. Last season Hernandez was going in Round 11 on average and he paid big dividends. I’m hoping Cook does the same.
Round 13 (154) - Vincent Brown, WR Chargers
Brown is my top sleeper for 2012, so I was pleased to get him this far down in the draft. I really believe Brown has the skills to emerge as the Chargers No. 1 receiver. Even if that doesn’t happen until next year, Brown should still get enough playing time to help fantasy owners this season. Word is Malcom Floyd is already questionable for Week 2 with a strained hamstring.
Round 14 (159) - Alex Smith, QB 49ers
My backup quarterback situation is obviously shaky at best. Smith isn’t an awful backup but given the fact that Stafford has had some injury issues in the past, I did try and address getting another quarterback earlier in the draft but kept coming up short. I was going to target Jay Cutler in the tenth but he went in Round 8. I then also missed out on Andy Dalton and Carson Palmer, so I had to settle for Smith. I make a lot of trades, so if this were my real team, I would be looking to acquire another quarterback.
Round 15 (178) - Randall Cobb, WR Packers
My three main sleepers for this year are Rodgers, Brown and Cobb. I guess the people I was drafting with don’t care because I was able to land all three. I really think Cobb is being undervalued. He’s going to have a big role in the Packers offense and Cobb isn’t even getting drafted in most leagues. Cobb could be in 2012 what Brandon Lloyd and Victor Cruz were to fantasy owners the last two years.
Round 16 (183) - Seahawks Defense
I’m going to be honest, I don’t start looking at defenses until early August. I remember the Seahawks created some turnovers last year and they keep telling me how every team in the league wanted to draft Bruce Irvin, so I went with them with my final pick.
Quarterbacks
Matthew Stafford
Alex Smith
Running Backs
Marshawn Lynch
James Starks
Jonathan Stewart
Jacquizz Rodgers
Shane Vereen
Wide Receivers
Roddy White
Jordy Nelson
Robert Meachem
Sidney Rice
Vincent Brown
Randall Cobb
Tight Ends
Aaron Hernandez
Jared Cook
Defense
Seattle Seahawks
Overall Thoughts
Again, I posted this draft because it was one I didn’t love overall. I probably would give it a C-. I have a stud quarterback, a top rated running back, two top receivers and one of my favorite tight ends, so I do have a good base. However, I’m going to need some of my sleepers to come through for me. If either Meachem or Rice is productive, I should be OK at receiver. I really like Brown and Cobb. If I’m right on one of them then my receiver will be very good. If I’m wrong on both, they’ll be on the waiver wire by Week 3.
Tight end could be my strongest unit if Cook plays up to his potential. If that were to happen, I could see myself starting a tight end in the flex spot to make up for my lack of running backs early in the season.
On paper, my running backs are weak. Starks should be a solid RB2 but the Packers just throw the ball so darn much it makes him a risky proposition. Stewart can be a stud but I won’t insult your intelligence by telling you it’s going to happen this year in Carolina. I’m really hoping either Rodgers or Vereen can step up and produce for me. I like Rodgers as a possible flex play this year in PPR leagues but Vereen is the wild card. If he somehow becomes the Patriots most valuable and productive running back, I may have something.
As long as Stafford stays healthy I’ll only need a backup once during his bye week but considering Stafford’s past, I can’t take anything for granted. Smith is a solid fantasy backup but if Stafford went down I would obviously have to make a move for another quarterback or get lucky and find the next Cam Newton on the waiver wire. Good luck.
Overall, there’s some good but I screwed up in the middle of the draft. I always preach to draft the best players and I should have gone with Maclin over Starks. Again, I like Starks but not as much as Maclin. That selection really changed the overall landscape of my draft. Now I have to hope some of my sleepers pan out or I’ll need to work on my depth, especially at running back. For a guy like me that trades a lot, it’s not the end of the world but I need some things to break my way if I plan on winning a title with the squad I drafted.
Follow me on Twitter @ThePigskinGuy
Stafford would win you most of the weekly matchups alone. Bulked up on the RBBC guys like we all should. Vereen was drafted before Ridley, what is that guys potential? He played two snaps last year.
No Ridley was drafted in Round 7 a few picks before I took Stewart.
i agree with the grade. you never know though. football is a long year, injuries happen, and the waiver-wire is just as important as the draft. looking at the way that shook out is just the reason i feel i have to take a qb round 4-5. do you remember where rivers, ryan, manning went by any chance? i’ve taken a qb early in a few mocks, and i dont like the way the rest of my team looks after. for me, im leaning rb-rb-wr to start. te usually ends up the position i wait on, getting fred davis or pettigrew has what resulted, and im ok with that
Rivers went in Round 5, Manning in Round 6 and Ryan in Round 7. Romo also went in the sixth round.
Missing on Gronk/Graham, going for Hernandez in the 5th is where I would diverge. I bet there were a couple low end RB2s available in the 5th and many other TEs that could be taken later. I agree with the Hernandez love, but not to the point where I wait so long to get a RB2.
Yes, that’s certainly one place I could have improved my running back situation. I actually took Hernandez to see how it would play out in case I went that route in real life. I usually do wait on tight ends, so Round 5 is a little early for me.
The TE dilemma in round 5 still gives me pause in mock drafts. I believe, as you do, there is significant separation in value from Hernandez (I have him #3 also) & TE’s below him. I hate having an early 5th round pick, since it’s either take him then or likely miss out on him as he often does not last to the end of round 6. He has the potential to approach Gronk-like production this yr. You can bet the league will gameplan to stop Gronk, which can only benefit Hern.
I agree. It’s a tough call. I think Hernandez will put up receiver-like numbers this year, so he’s certainly worth a 5th round pick in my opinion if you want to go TE that high.
I so want Stafford this season too, just read one of his WR’s saying that last year Stafford didn’t get to work out that much before the season, this year he has and his arm is even stronger. So scary good!
I’d be curious to know who’s on the wire at QB after that draft. I’m not fond of ever backing up a stud QB, Vicksurance is about where i draw the line. If one really fell and i just couldn’t pass up the value i’d draft two, but that being said, id also probably look to trade one for a position player, less i was just really deep and didn’t need to. I know you got Smith in 14 and its like who gives a crap at that point, but lets say come week 2 you do need a QB, you know you’re going to look at the match ups and possibly see better on the wire, so why waste a spot on your roster. I also might draft a backup late if i just really felt solid with my team, but you said you didn’t, so maybe the position player you could have grabbed in 14 pops or gets a big shot due to injury and you’re sitting prettier than you thought. If the wires decimated though i guess Smith is better then Weeden, ha,.. yea but than again who knows!
I actually agree with you Nerd. Last year when I had Brees I only cared who my backup was for his bye week. The only two things I will say is Stafford still concerns me more I guess than a Bress or Brady when it comes to getting injured. Also, I like to have someone with a little more value than Smith to throw in a trade down the line. Smith is one of those guys no one ever wants. If I had a Dalton I could always add him in a trade proposal to sweeten the deal if the guy was light at quarterback. I do agree though about the stud QB. A lot of times I will only carry one QB when I have a stud and roll the dice.
should have skipped stafford and taken rb in the 2nd followed by roddy,jordie,hernandez in the 5th,then grab another rb starks in the 6th and ryan in the 7th,your team would have been much stronger
Yes but I took a QB early on purpose to see what would happen. I’m posting mock drafts using different scenarios so we can see how they shake out. That’s why I went with Stafford in Round 2 this time around. Next time I will target a Vick or Rivers in Round 5 and see how that strategy plays out. Thanks.
BTW, I’ve gotten some of my best teams drafting in the 10 hole. Does require some good fortune. Some of this is a bit unorthodox too, but I’d take this team any day.
Here’s one I did today at the 10 spot (10 total teams):
1. Ryan Mathews
2. Jimmy Graham
3. Cam Newton
4. A.J. Green
5. Jordy Nelson
6. Roy Helu
7. Jeremy Maclin
8. Eric Decker
9. Torrey Smith
10. Mikel Lesoure
11. Pittsburg D
12. Ronnie Hillman
13. David Akers
14. Ryan Fitzpatrick
15. Dustin Keller
I was saying more for Round 1. I actually like picking later in Round 1 myself, I just don’t love the running backs to chose from this year. However, for the remainder of the draft I prefer that spot too. Also, this just happened to be one of those times where I kept missing out on players I wanted by a pick or two. If I had my way I probably would have ended up with the draft you posted. lol
Nice team, but i don’t think Cam comes close to pick 34, in real life fantasy football, ha
Actually, my bad. That was the #8 spot.
Sorry.
I don’t know if any of the top 5 QB’s make it to round 3, and i play PPR too. Honestly, if i knew Cam or Stafford would make it back to anyone picking in the top 4 i would really like a pick in the top 4 this year. Give me Foster and Matthews and i’ll set the damn thing on auto pilot, get drunk, and do nothing but heckle the remaining 11 losers for 3 hours, lol
I don’t see any of those guys making it past Round 2 in most drafts come August. In almost all the mocks I’ve done they are all gone in the Top 20 picks. Sometimes Stafford falls to pick 25-28 but that’s as low as I’ve seen.
I’d give a kidney for him to make it to 21. MJD @ 4, who always seems to treat his fantasy footballers right, and Mathews at 21, id be giddy. Still don’t think it happens though.
No Decker or Hillman?
F-
Just start the firesale already. There is always next year.
I tried to get both but they were both taken just before I was going to pick them. I have gotten them in most of my mocks. This one was just particularly frustrating. The Hillman bandwagon is getting out of control. That’s really upsetting.
my college league is mildly retarded when it comes to planning for the draft so I am pretty sure I will be able to get both. Our drafts parties always have a keg so I by the end of the later rounds, everyone is drunk and grabbing defenses in the 8th rounds.
I just had my real draft today and I think I am paper champion. QB, 2 rb, 2 wr, 1FLEX, K (tight ends can be used as WR, just the way we have anlways done it, picked from the 9th spot)
Matthews
Richardson
AJ Green
Dez Byrant
Decker
BJGE
Blount
Gates
Rashard Jennings
C Palmer
Ronnie Brown
OchoCinco
Jaq rodgers
Ryan Fitzpatrick
Matt Byrant.
I know QB is questionable but I love my depth at rb and wr
Yes, you may have to make a move at QB at some point. I like Palmer and Fitz as backups but I don’t know if they will be consistent enough for you throughout the season as starters. I love your receivers though. Did anyone draft Locker?
Yes he is still there. I like him, just heard that hasselbeck was starting the season somewhere.
Hasselbeck is starting but I don’t think he’ll finish at his age. Locker is a guy to watch. He would have a lot of fantasy value off the waiver wire if Hasselbeck goes down and that could really help you at quarterback. Keep a close eye on him.
Probably the biggest decision for me is do you go after one of the two elite TE’s? If so, you really have to plan to get them by mid-2nd round or they’re likely gone. And if you do get one, it really can upset the whole flow of your draft and get you behind the RB or QB curve in a hurry. is it worth it or really doesn’t matter if you can manage to get playable RB’s. I’m leaning towards going for an elite TE if I have a “bottom half” pick (i.e. last 5 of 10 team league), but would like to hear opinions on it…
I probably wouldn’t take a TE that high personally. I took Hernandez in round 5 here and even that is a little high for me. Maybe I’m stuck in the past on this but it’s still hard for me to pull the trigger on a TE so early. On the other hand, I can’t argue against drafting Gronk or Graham, especially after owning Gronk last year.
I just completed 2 mock drafts on ESPN (ESPN’s rankings are all whack) both in the 10 spot in a 12 man league.
My first strategy I went with Stafford first and then drafted normally. The second draft I went with a crazy strategy to see what would happen (RB, RB, RB)
Which one do you like more?
1st team:
Stafford
Lynch
Fred Jackson
Brandon Marshall
Maclin
Decker
Jermaine Gresham at TE
bunch of reserves including Hillman)
2nd Team:
Cutler (I could have picked Rivers or someone but I wanted to see what happened if I gunned for Cutler in the late late rounds. RG3 backup)
Ryan Matthews (1st pick)
Lynch
Julio Jones
Decker
Hernandez at TE
Fred Jackson in my flex (3rd pick)
what do you think?
I like the first team way better. I think Stafford is a big upgrade at QB and I like your receivers more. I would much rather end up with the first team you drafted personally.
Yeah I agree. This is something I am going to have to play around with on ESPNs mocks considering their rankings are different but it looks like if I am in a late spot and Matthew is gone, I will take Stafford in the 1st round. They have Lynch ranked low. Looks like the best strategy right now.
Looking for opinions on my 12 team dynasty roster. I left another post on the WR rankings regarding a trade with another owner. Essentially, I would be happy this year being “in the money” at the end of the year, which means I would have to be among the Top 6 teams make the playoffs. My initial feeling is that my team is good enough to do that right now, barring injury. Should I have a sense of urgency to make any moves or just go for the best values in our rookie/FA draft? Problem is any trade that has been tabled usually involves one of my top RBs, and I don’t want to start messing with my team if I am already in a good position to start the season.
I know that I my biggest question mark is WR. I could also use some depth at QB and TE, but I think my star power and depth at RB should be good enough.
Would appreciate any opinions.
(Non-PPR and 4 points for passing TDs.)
Starters
Tom Brady NE
Ryan Mathews, SD
Arian Foster, Hou
Flex Roy Helu, Wsh
Randy Moss, SF
Eric Decker, Den
Fred Davis, Wsh
Bench
Owen Daniels, Hou
Stevan Ridley, NE
Alex Green, GB
Julius Thomas, Den
Dion Lewis, Phi
Danario Alexander, StL
Damian Williams, Ten
Kevin Smith, Det RB
Riley Cooper, Phi
Brandon Saine, GB
Golden Tate, Sea
Kahlil Bell, Chi
John Skelton, Ari
Jonathan Dwyer, Pit
Joe Webb, Min
Andre Roberts, Ari
Let’s say for a second I’m right about Decker. If that’s the case then you can win with that team. Now let’s say I’m wrong. Then you obviously need a receiver. You are fine with starters at QB, RB and TE. I think you need one more receiver just in case. I mean you could hit the jackpot if both Decker and Moss come through. I would say hope for one of them (likely Decker). Still, you are in decent shape. I would not give up one of your running backs. Receivers are much easier to find. Also, Golden Tate and Andre Roberts are two sleepers who could emerge for you if things break right. I would probably stick for now or try to get a receiver with upside on the cheap.
Thanks PG. That was my gut feeling as well, but it is always good to get consensus. I really had high hopes for Danario, but he can’t seem to stay healthy so I may cut him prior to the draft (we have to drop four). It is such a shame because the guy is such a physical freak in every other way. i am extremely confident that you/we are right about Decker….just hoping that Manthing stays healthy.
Regarding the draft, all I know is, when my first pick rolls around I think Hillman and Quick are going to both be available…..decisions, decisions.
I liked Alexander too but his knees just won’t hold up. If he didn’t have the knee problems he probably would have been a productive NFL receiver but that’s the reason why many teams took him off their draft board. It’s just a case of a talented guy who had some bad luck.
PG, you have outdone yourself. I am now seeing Ronnie Hillman 2012 Season prospects threads on other blogs. The ground swell movement is growing. He will soon be overvalued in drafts……ugh.
I think he already is. It sucks.
hard to really give you a grade on this draft without seeing the whole thing…and more importanty knowing the whole dynamics around the starting lineup requirements….you mentioned a flex, but I assume the rest is 1QB/2RB/3WR/1TE…so a few comments based on that: (if it’s only 2WR each week that changes things)
1. I disagree with those that don’t like your Hernandez pick…to me it may have been your best pick….this was PPR and dude racked up damn near 90 receptions last year IIRC while playing 3rd fiddle to Welker/Gronk….you have a guy who puts up WR2 type numbers as your TE….you will have an advantage over most at this position every week….I think the seperation between him and Graham/Gronk will be smaller this year, but the difference between those 3 and the rest of the field will be substantial….great pick in the 5th
2. I agree you screwed the pooch with Starks over Maclin…..no offense, but that should have been an easy pick for you and a little disappointed that you paniced cause you could have killed this draft…Lynch/Stafford/White/Nelson/Hernandez/Maclin would have been pretty impressive….we have talked about the overall suckiness and uncertainity at RB this year….couple that with the NFL being a passing league and RB2 is the position to sluff off this year…..the combo you got later Stewart/Rodgers/Vereen, etc would have probably kept you competitive at the RB2 position all year since the position overall sucks….you aren’t going to lose that much ground to the field, and on top of that Maclin would probably covered any seperation easily by himself….not sure Meachem will….huge mistake here and probably the one thing any readers should really take from this thread…don’t panic…..most teams will be scrambling for points at RB2, don’t go chasing those points too early because you can probably end up getting the same production several rounds later….IMO, rounds 6-10 can really be where you win or lose your leagues….the first few rounds are pretty easy for most (even newbie drafters)….and most teams add talent across the board….but it is rounds 6 and on when you start finishing off your “starting” lineup and where you can make some hay….while others start losing focus and beome somewhat disinterested….you start to kill it….
not hating on Starks, but honestly that pick may be the difference between an A and a C on this bad boy….the Maclin pick would have also allowed you not to make the Meachem pick and you could have added HIllman……hell, may sound crazy but I would have maybe liked to see you gamble a little on HIllman and take him in the 6th instead of Starks….and FWIW I like Wayne over Meachem….think he will work well with Luck and catch quite a few balls…..
like the Stewart pick as well as the Rice, Rodgers, and Cobb picks……….
thanks for taking the time to run this blog and provide us with some quality stuff….cheers…
Thanks for the feedback Ref. I agree with everything you said. In some other drafts I killed it but I thought this would be a better draft to post because of that Maclin mistake. It shows how making one mistake like that in the middle rounds can really change the dynamics of a draft. That’s why I thought it would be more beneficial to post this one than a draft where I got every guy I wanted and everything went my way. Thanks again for the comments.