The Pigskin Guy

Source: zimbio.com

Receiver is always the toughest and most interesting position to try and rank, especially when it comes to dynasty leagues. No other position allows owners the chance to try and nab the “next big thing” quite like receiver. Here are my updated Top 35 dynasty league receivers, along with some rookies to keep an eye on.

Rankings are based on a 12-team league flex format with 1 point awarded per reception

1. Calvin Johnson, Lions
The most dominant player at any position and he’s only 26. Scary. Injuries are the only thing that can stop Megatron.

2. Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals
Fitzgerald has caught 170 passes for 2,548 yards over the last two seasons. That’s even more impressive when you consider who the quarterbacks have been in Arizona since Kurt Warner retired. The only real negative is Fitzgerald has “only” scored 14 touchdowns during that span.

3. A.J. Green, Bengals
Some guys you watch once and you can see they’re a special talent. Green is one of those guys. Green and Andy Dalton should form one of the most dangerous quarterback/receiver combination over the next decade. If I couldn’t get Johnson in a dynasty league, the next receiver I would want on my team is Green.

4. Julio Jones, Falcons
Jones has all kinds of physical skills and similar to Green, he looks like a special player. It won’t be long before Jones supplants Roddy White as the Falcons most dangerous receiver. I give Green a slight nod right now but Jones has the ability to become one of the top receivers in the NFL.

5. Hakeem Nicks, Giants
Nicks is already a premier receiver at the age of 24. Eli Manning took his game to another level in 2012, so Nicks should reap the benefits for many more years to come. Injuries are becoming a bit of a concern with Nicks but on the bright side he appears to be the quickest healer on the planet. When healthy though Nicks is a beast.

6. Roddy White, Falcons
White is still one of the top fantasy receivers and he led the NFL in targets last year. I expect White to put up a couple more big seasons with the Falcons but at some point the ultra-talented Jones will likely become Atlanta’s top option in the passing game. Still, White is Matt Ryan’s favorite target, so he isn’t going anywhere soon.

7. Wes Welker, Patriots
I don’t care how many white stiffs the media wants to compare to Welker, there’s only one receiver in the NFL pretty much guaranteed to catch 100 balls a year. Welker is the best slot receiver in the league, so expect a few more seasons with big reception totals as long as Tom Brady is throwing to him.

8. Dez Bryant, Cowboys
For all the complaining from fantasy owners Bryant did catch 63 passes for 928 yards and 9 touchdowns in his second season. I get that Bryant disappeared at times but trust me as a Dallas fan, that’s because of idiotic coaches and playcalling. So why do I expect Bryant to breakout in 2012 and have a monster season? That’s easy. The Pigskin Guy isn’t the only person who wants to see him get the ball more. The other person just happens to be the owner, GM, president, coach, valet, peanut vendor, etc. of the Dallas Cowboys and he usually gets what he wants. I’m the most miserable, disgruntled Cowboys fan on the planet and I can say I would be fine if Bryant is my No. 1 fantasy receiver heading into the season. That’s the best selling point I can give you because I usually undervalue Dallas players due to my rage. Physically, Bryant is one of the most talented receivers in the NFL, so the sky’s the limit for him.

9. Andre Johnson, Texans
Johnson is 30 and the recent injuries are a concern. However, few receivers are as talented as Johnson when he’s healthy. His stock is dropping a bit in dynasty leagues, just don’t let him drop too far though. The guy is still very good when he’s on.

10. Jordy Nelson, Packers
Nelson out-produced Jennings last year and while I think it’s hard to always count on 15 touchdowns, I won’t be surprised if Nelson puts up better numbers than Jennings once again in 2012. The way I see it one receiver is headed up and the other is starting to come down a little. Nelson is the one on the way up. Nelson may not score 15 touchdowns again but playing in the Packers offense with Aaron Rodgers, 10+ scores is still well within reach. I actually think people are expecting Nelson’s numbers to fall off too much. In my opinion, he’s a receiver that’s getting better on a great offense with the best quarterback in the NFL. I’ll take that.

11. Victor Cruz, Giants
I’m a big believer that you can tell when a guy is a one-year wonder. Remember a couple of years ago when Arian Foster came out of nowhere? You could tell it wasn’t a fluke. I feel the same way about Cruz. He wasn’t just catching passes when he was wide open, Cruz made a lot of amazing plays last year. I think Cruz is the real deal and he playing with Eli Manning only increases his fantasy value.

12. Greg Jennings, Packers
I like Jennings but in my opinion he’s a receiver that’s being overvalued heading into the season. With the emergence of Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb likely getting more looks this season, I just don’t see Jennings being a Top 5 fantasy receiver. The guy does score though. Jennings has found the end zone 21 times in the last two years. He’s still a very good fantasy receiver but something tells me Nelson is going to keep getting better. Remember, since the Super Bowl two years ago Nelson has put up huge numbers.

13. Antonio Brown, Steelers
I don’t understand why people aren’t buying into this guy. I wrote at least 10 times last season that Brown was turning into one of the best receivers in the NFL and I still believe that. Going back to last preseason Brown was just a different player and he carried that over to the regular season by catching 69 passes for 1,1108 yards. So why are people ranking him so low? I don’t get it. Brown only scored two touchdowns last year but he was knocked out of bounds inside the five yard line on four other occasions. I believe those things will even out in the end. I watched a few Steeler games over from last season and in my opinion Brown has it all. He runs great routes, is dangerous in the open field and he makes tough catches in traffic. Mike Wallace has blinding speed but in my opinion Brown is the better overall receiver. I absolutely love this kid.

14. Jeremy Maclin, Eagles
Maclin got a late start to the season after he was diagnosed with a “mysterious illness” in August. I believe that hurt him preparing for the season. He still put up solid fantasy numbers and was on pace to catch 85 balls before missing three games in November. In my mind Maclin is one of the best young receivers in the NFL. In three years he’s yet to top 1,000 yards receiving. Expect that to come to end in 2012. I think Maclin is about to break out as a fantasy stud.

15. Percy Harvin, Vikings
Harvin is one of the most dynamic playmakers in the NFL. It only took Leslie Frazier half a season to figure that out. At 23, Harvin still has a lot of years left. Injuries, especially the migraines, are a concern but when he’s healthy few receivers strike fear into a defense like Harvin does. Harvin isn’t happy in Minnesota but let’s be honest, who can blame him?

16. Mike Wallace, Steelers
I’m not as high on Wallace as most people. I like him but in my opinion Brown is the better overall receiver and the guy I would rather have for the long-term. Still, Wallace is always going to provide big plays and top 1,000 yards most seasons. I like Wallace a lot more in non-PPR leagues where yards and touchdowns are all that matter. I would gladly take Wallace on my fantasy team but I don’t view him as a Top 10 receiver.

17. Kenny Britt, Titans
The only thing that stopped Britt last year was a knee injury. At only 23 years old and loaded with talent, Britt has a ton of potential. However, now Britt is expected to miss most of training camp after having another procedure on his injured knee. I love Britt’s upside but there’s also a chance he becomes one of those teases that’s always hurt. We’ll find out this season.

18. Eric Decker, Broncos
It may be surprising to see a receiver with only 50 career receptions this high but I’ve been a huge Decker fan since his college days at Minnesota. Decker was on his way to a strong season until Kyle Orton was benched in favor of Tim Tebow. Now they’ve both been sacked in favor of Peyton Manning. Few people know how good Decker really is but I think they’ll find out this year. Decker is the perfect receiver to shine in Manning’s offense because of his versatility to line up in a variety of different spots on the field. I’m all in on Decker.

19. Brandon Marshall, Bears
Marshall is 28 and his attitude always makes him a risky proposition when we’re talking long-term. However, on the field Marshall is still one of the most talented receivers in the NFL and now he has Jay Cutler throwing to him again. I love Marshall for this season (He’s my No. 3 ranked receiver in re-draft leagues) but anything beyond that depends on if he stays out of trouble.

20. Demaryius Thomas, Broncos
The Broncos have two good young receivers in Decker and Thomas. I may have Thomas a little low but that’s only because I believe Decker and Jacob Tamme will eat into his receptions. Thomas is loaded with talent though. He was actually the second highest scoring fantasy receiver last year over the final eight games behind only Megatron. However, Thomas recently admitted he needs to learn how to run routes. Not being able to run routes may work playing with Tebow but it won’t cut it playing with Manning. That’s something to keep an eye on early in the year if the two aren’t on the same page.

21. Miles Austin, Cowboys
Austin has always been a good route-runner but he’s dropped way too many passes over the last couple of years. Maybe it’s because he wasn’t ready to play, like he recently admitted to reporters. And people wonder why Dallas hasn’t won a damn thing in 16 years? Austin is reportedly is much better shape and Tony Romo loves him, so he may be a bit undervalued heading into 2012, especially with all the love for Bryant right now.

22. Dwayne Bowe, Chiefs
There’s no denying Bowe’s talent but the quarterback situation in Kansas City is worrisome. If Matt Cassel regains his 2010 form, Bowe will put up big numbers. If he doesn’t and the Chiefs go after a young quarterback next summer then Bowe may not be a big fantasy factor for the next couple of seasons. Remember, if Cassel gets benched Brady Quinn takes over. Brady Quinn can’t play. If you need me to point that out, fantasy football probably isn’t for you.

23. Steve Johnson, Bills
Johnson is always one of the most underrated fantasy receivers. It seems like he produces every season and then the next year he’s getting drafted in Round 6 again. In the last two years Johnson has recorded back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons and scored 17 touchdowns, despite inconsistent quarterback play. Johnson is always welcome on my fantasy teams. He’s one of my favorite players in the NFL.

24. Torrey Smith, Ravens
Smith showed signs of things to come last season. He was raw coming out of college and I still believe Smith is one more year away from really breaking out. That’s not really a big problem in dynasty leagues though, so Smith should be pretty high on your radar. He has the potential to become one of the best receivers in the NFL. I expect Smith to have a good year in 2012 and a great year in 2013.

25. Michael Floyd, Cardinals
I had Floyd rated as the top receiver in this draft class and I love the fact that Fitzgerald will be taking him under his wing. I believe by next season the the Cardinals will have one of the most dangerous receiver tandems in the NFL. Look for Floyd to come on as this season goes along and then break out in 2013. The only concern is Arizona’s shaky quarterback situation.

26. Denarius Moore, Raiders
Moore is basically in the same boat as Torrey Smith for me. I think he has nice fantasy value this season but 2013 is the year Moore will really bust out. From what I saw out of Moore in his rookie season, he has the physical tools to become one of the most dangerous receivers in the NFL over the next couple of years. I really like him for the long-term.

27. Brandon Lloyd, WR Patriots
Lloyd is 30 but he obviously landed in a dream spot with the Patriots. I see Lloyd being a very steady fantasy receiver for the next couple of seasons.  To say Brady is the best quarterback Lloyd has ever played with is a pretty big understatement. My guess is Lloyd won’t rack up a ton of receptions but he’ll maximize the ones he does get by creating a lot of big plays in the Patriots offense.

28. Vincent Jackson, Bucs
Some people may think this is a little low for Jackson. To be honest, I think it may be a little high. Jackson is 29 and he no longer has Philip Rivers throwing him the ball. I’ve yet to figure out how that’s a good thing. Jackson’s best days are behind him in my opinion and don’t forget that most of his production last year came in four games. Jackson has just always been too inconsistent for my liking.

29. Marques Colston, Saints
Colston is 28 and his knees are a concern but there’s something to be said about being Drew Brees‘ favorite wide receiver. Actually, there’s a lot to be said for that. I just worry about his health in a dynasty league format. For me personally, Colston is a receiver I would much rather own in a re-draft league.

30. Justin Blackmon, Jaguars
There’s a chance Blackmon will burst onto the scene and be the NFL Rookie of the Year but let’s be honest, he’s not off to a very good start. Soon after being drafted Blackmon learned his offense is in such shambles that Chad Henne could actually be the Jaguars starting quarterback this year. Then Blackmon gets arrested for a DUI and declares that he’s done drinking “for now.” Boy that makes me feel good. What the hell does that mean? I used to wake up on my kitchen floor after a night of snorting Jagermeister up my nose and say “I’m done drinking for now.” Then five hours later I was funneling Vodka. Sorry if Blackmon’s statement doesn’t give me a warm fuzzy feeling inside or instill much confidence that he’s done drinking. Again, maybe he doesn’t touch another drop of alcohol and blows up as a rookie but the facts are the facts. And the fact is Blackmon’s NFL career has gotten off to a rocky start. The again, if I got drafted by Jacksonville I would probably start drinking heavily too.

31. Steve Smith Panthers
Cam Newton is such a special player that he even helped save Smith’s career. Smith re-emerged as one of the NFL’s most dangerous receivers last year but he’s 33. I love Smith for this season but over the long haul in a dynasty league I would rather have most of the guys ranked ahead of him.

32. Greg Little, Browns
Little had his problems with drops as a rookie but I was impressed how he come in and basically became the Browns only receiving threat during his first season. Little has the size and speed to be a very productive NFL receiver. Now he just needs a quarterback to get him the ball and make sure he hangs onto it once it gets there. I’m a Brandon Weeden fan, so I think Little has some value in dynasty leagues right now.

33. DeSean Jackson, Eagles
DeSean and Vincent Jackson are pretty much the same player. They’re both deep threats that get vastly overrated by fantasy people every single season. Look at Jackson’s career numbers and then tell me why he should be a Top 20 fantasy receiver? It’s craziness. Jackson is a decent fantasy receiver and nothing more. The contract the Eagles gave this guy was ludicrous. If Jerry Jones did something that stupid we would all be laughing at him, led by me.

34. Robert Meachem, Chargers
This is based more on projection than what Meachem has actually done so far in his career. I don’t see Meachem ever being a No. 1 receiver but on the other hand I don’t view Vincent Jackson as a No. 1 receiver either and he produced good numbers playing with Rivers. At 27, Meachem is worth a shot around this area in dynasty leagues. However, the guy I really like is Vincent Brown. I think he’ll eventually emerge as the Chargers No. 1 receiver and he’s the guy I’m targeting in my dynasty league.

35. Michael Crabtree, 49ers
I don’t think Crabtree gets enough criticism. This guy was supposed to be a monster in the NFL and up until this point he hasn’t done a whole heck of a lot. The good news is Crabtree came on last season and finished with 72 receptions. Hopefully, this is the year he finally busts out and becomes a big fantasy factor. I’ll give Crabtree one last chance before I close the book on him.

Rookies to Watch

Kendall Wright, Titans
I love Wright but I don’t know how much fantasy value he’s going to have off the bat with Kenny Britt, Nate Washington and tight end Jared Cook already in the mix. However, Britt recently had a second surgery on his injured knee, so if he isn’t ready to start the season, Wright’s value increases. I do believe though that either way Wright has a bright future. In my opinion he was the fastest player in this year’s draft, so expect him to be a dangerous deep threat at the very least as a rookie. I think Wright has a shot to be a big-time fantasy receiver by 2013.

Brian Quick, Rams
Quick was one of those 1-AA (Yes, I’m still calling it that) players that when you watched him he really stood out. I know someone who covers 1-AA ball and the first time I saw Quick play I sent him an e-mail asking, “Who is this No. 8 for Appalachian State and why isn’t he playing for USC?” He wrote me back that Quick was a late bloomer and NFL scouts were already all over him. Quick is still a little raw but if we’re talking three years down the line, he may end up being the top fantasy receiver in this group. That sounds like a nice dynasty league pick to me. I love this kid.

Ryan Broyles, Lions
Broyles was one of my favorite receivers in the draft. If he hadn’t hurt his knee Broyles may have snuck into the later portion of Round 1. I guess the Lions are just going to try and outscore everyone with Broyles, Titus Young and Megatron putting the fear of god into opposing defenses over the next couple of years. Broyles should be ready to start the season and he’s quickly moving up my draft board. In my opinion Broyles has a chance to become one of the best slot receivers in the NFL. He reminds me of Welker in a lot of ways even though he isn’t an obscure white receiver. I created a new dynasty league this year and Broyles will be one of my top targets in out initial draft. I see him helping fantasy owners right away in PPR leagues.

Rueben Randle, Giants
I’ve said all along that Randle is a little raw because he played in LSU’s archaic offense but this is the perfect situation for him. With Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz drawing most of the defense’s attention, Randle will see a lot of man coverage as a rookie. Randle is going to get a lot of first-team reps in training camp with Nicks being out, so that should help speed up his development. I believe Randle will have much more fantasy value in 2013 but now with Nicks’ injury that could certainly change. Randle could be another draft day steal for Jerry Reese and the Giants.

Stephen Hill, Jets
I don’t love Hill in re-draft leagues because until he becomes a better route runner, the Jets will use him primarily on fly routes. Hill could be used similar to how the Ravens used Torrey Smith last year, which means he could run hot and cold. As far as future upside goes though, Hill has a lot of it. If you’re looking for a receiver to draft and stash, Hill is your guy. He’s a receiver that has dynasty league written all over him.

Alshon Jeffery, Bears
Jeffery has elite skills and he could be a Pro Bowl receiver if he stays motivated. On the other hand, he could show up to training camp out of shape and barely step foot on the field. I’ve stated all along that Jeffery is the ultimate boom or bust pick for both NFL teams and fantasy owners. It comes down to if you want to trust him or not. Jeffery is the toughest player for me to rank because I still love his talent on the field but I have no idea what to expect from him off it.

Mohamed Sanu, WR Bengals
Sanu is a big physical receiver with some of the best hands you’ll ever see. The downside is he has very little explosion. In college Sanu did a great job of using his big frame to shield off defenders and he’ll need to continue doing that in the NFL because he doesn’t create much separation. Sanu has a chance to start as a rookie, so he has instant value in PPR leagues.

Nick Toon, WR Saints
In my opinion Toon is going to be a chain mover type of receiver in the NFL. He has the toughness and hands to work across the middle and be a solid possession guy. I think we can all agree that he went to a pretty good offense. Toon is a polished receiver coming out of college and the Saints aren’t really stocked at that position anymore. Toon has a chance to get on the field and contribute as a rookie. The more I look at Toon and what the Saints have at receiver, the more I like him in dynasty leagues.

Greg Childs, WR Vikings
The Vikings took another Arkansas receiver earlier in Round 4, Jarius Wright, but I’m higher on Childs. Wright is more of a slot guy where Childs has the size (6’3, 219) to line up on the outside and be a legitimate No. 1 receiver. Wright and Joe Adams went ahead of him but Childs was the best overall receiver on the Arkansas team when he was healthy. This is an interesting situation in terms of fantasy football. The Vikings don’t have a lot of big outside receivers, so Childs has a chance to come right in and contribute. He’s an intriguing sleeper receiver in dynasty leagues.

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