Source: bleacherreport.com
One of my goals here at The Pigskin Guy is to bring you new and interesting voices on fantasy football. I mean even I’m getting sick and tired of listening to my own constant inane babbling about players. So it gives me great pleasure to announce Fantasy FB Pundit as a contributor to my blog.
I’m sure some of you already follow Pundit on Twitter @FantasyFbPundit. If you don’t follow him, you should. Pundit does a tremendous job of delivering great fantasy football information in 140 characters. He also puts together highlights of different players, which are extremely valuable to fantasy owners. If you were going to follow either me or Pundit on Twitter, I would say follow him.
In his second installment of Draft Day Decision, Pundit breaks down who’s a better choice between DeMarco Murray and Marshawn Lynch.
DeMarco Murray vs. Marshawn Lynch
No one can argue with the success Marshawn Lynch enjoyed last season. The sixth-year back finished with a 313/1416/4.52/13 line in 15 games, tying Michael Turner for fifth overall in RB scoring, while tallying an impressive 13.5 fantasy points per game. Over his final nine games, Lynch failed to eclipse the 85 total yard mark only once, scoring a TD in eight of those contests.
Marshawn was in true Beast Mode over the second half of 2011. And then, in March, Seattle went ahead and rewarded Lynch with four-year, $37 million contract that includes $17 million in guarantees. Yes, in his best season as a pro, Lynch was playing for a new contract. And now he’s got one.
How much can we attribute Lynch’s best season to the fact that he was in a contract year? I have no idea. But it’s certainly worth noting. If we learned anything from Chris Johnson’s disastrous 2011 campaign, it’s that motivation for any player is important, and it’s fair to wonder if Lynch will be as motivated as he was last season. Lynch is not a running back that can just skate by on talent alone — he’s not a dynamic talent.
Lynch is a volume runner who depends on a lot of touches to achieve his fantasy value. Even in a career year, he averaged 4.2 yards per carry, putting him firmly in Shonn Greene territory based on efficiency. In fact, his 4.2 number last year was the best of Lynch’s career: in 2010, it was 3.6; in 2009, 3.8.
Compare the 2011 seasons of Lynch vs another starting running back.
Lynch: 313/1416/4.52/13
RB X: 299/1325/4.43/8
So, yeah — Lynch was an ever-so-slightly more efficient version of Frank Gore, plus the extra scores. And Gore is going a full two rounds later in drafts. (To be clear: I hate Frank Gore this year).
Not that there’s anything wrong with being a volume runner, of course — there’s value in that. But the total touches must be high to sustain that value (Lynch was 4th in rushes last season), and to justify his early 2nd-round ADP as the 10th RB off the board, Lynch will have to come close to the 12 TDs he scored in 2011, a feat I find him unlikely to repeat (his TD totals in his other four seasons: 6, 2, 8, 7).
Lynch had 42 carries in the redzone last season, scoring a TD on 11 of those runs, a 26% TD rate that just isn’t sustainable. For comparison, Maurice Jones-Drew, Ray Rice, and Arian Foster all averaged between a 15%-17% TD rate in the redzone. Lynch also punched in 8 of 13 carries inside the five-yard line, an impressive feat, but a conversion rate that is not sustainable. With a regression in touchdowns likely, it’s an easy call for me to take DeMarco Murray in this draft slot instead.
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Murray started last season behind Felix Jones on the depth chart, but once Jones (predictably) went down with an injury*, the Cowboys handed the reigns of their backfield over to DeMarco and never looked back (well, until Murray went down with an injury of his own, of course). But it’s important to examine how productive Murray was during his time as Dallas’ lead back, because with an expected “workhorse” role this season, Murray should easily be able to put up RB1 numbers.
Murray finished his rookie campaign with a 190/1080/5.68/2 line. In a presumed feature-back role, if we extrapolate that to a full season with the same yards-per touch average, projecting Murray with 250 carries and 40 receptions, his 2012 line would look something like this: 290 touches for 1,647 total yards, or 18 touches for 103 total yards per game, which would have placed Murray somewhere between LeSean McCoy (108 yards/game) and Steven Jackson (99 yards/game) last year. All of this is basically a long-winded way of saying that if he gets the touches, Murray should be a yardage machine in 2012.
And make no mistake: assuming good health, Murray will get the lion’s share of touches this season. We know this for two reasons. For one, we can look back to last year after Jones went down. Starting with his breakout game against St. Louis in Week 7 when he rushed 25 times for 253 yards and a score, and before suffering a season-ending ankle injury in Week 14, Murray’s total touches line looks like this: 25, 9, 26, 26, 31, 26, and 12. That comes to 22 touches per game. (Note: in Week 8 against Philly, Murray received only nine touches in large part because Dallas fell behind 24-0 in the first half). The second reason we know Murray will be the feature-back is because Jerry Jones — who happens to be the owner of the team — has essentially said as much himself.
One thing that hurt Murray’s value last season was his lack of touchdowns — he scored only two despite having 190 touches. Is this a reflection on his skill-set, or just bad luck? Well, we know that a league-high 87% of the Cowboys’ TDs last season were passing scores (33-to-5), a full 22% higher than the league average.
Murray also had only 19 carries in the redzone, a number that is sure to rise — Jones saw 18 redzone carries last season, a majority of which should go to Murray in 2012. And with Murray assuming goal line duties in a high-powered attack, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him tally more scores than Lynch this year.
When we look to the ADP data, Murray and Lynch are directly beside each other, going off the board at the top of Round 2. If you draw the 11th or 12th pick in a 12-team league, this gives you a little flexibility to either go RB/RB, or grabbing a guy like Drew Brees and going QB/RB with your first two picks.
I have little doubt that Murray will be a true RB1 on a points-per-game basis and would make for a better selection in this spot than Lynch, whose TDs I expect to regress. I think Lynch will ultimately end up offering low-end RB1 production, if not on the high-end RB2 side of the spectrum.
* Felix Jones may be “injury prone” himself, but he makes a fantastic handcuff for Murray and a legit RB2 should Murray go down. Even if Murray misses time — say, four games — I prefer 12 games of Murray plus four games of Jones to a full slate of games from Lynch.
If i went Murray, i’d feel the need to reach for Felix in 8 or 9. If i went Lynch id have to look up who’s his backer at the moment. Lynch’s production depends on 20+ carries i agree, but he’ll also get it so i’m not worried about that. I agree i like Murray more since i’m PPR, but i hate having to give away a pick like that, and i think it detracts a bit from the Murray over Lynch argument, even more so if you’re not PPR.
Lynch didn’t do as good 2010, but that’s the year he was traded after 4 games so i say give a guy time to get acclimated. I remember really being high on him going into 2011, and it wasn’t because i thought he’d play hard for the money. Maybe i was just smitten with the earthquake run against the Saints, but he backed it the F up in 2011. He got paid, but it’s not like he got CJ paid, maybe he wants more, he should know his owners sure has it to give too. I tell you what, if Lynch does shut it down this year because he got paid, i will never ever draft another running back who has gold in his mouth, ha. I see a guy who runs hard, and who’s been on some pretty suspect teams. Murray’s the better pick still, but i love me some Beast Mode and think his best is yet to come.
I respect your opinion FFBP but I’d rather go with Lynch over Murray in the late 1st/early 2nd rd. Murray was hurt every year at OK and that carried over to his 1st year in the NFL. Also, he really tailed- off after his 4 game hot streak starting with the monster game against STL. HIs next 3 starts (before his leg injury game) were average at best. I’m not sure he can sustain a lead back, 20+ carries per game role for a whole season. I also think the team will continue to work Felix Jones into the mix and he is more of a threat to Murray’s touches than anyone currently on SEA is to Lynch’s workload.
I’m not a big Lynch fan and am even less of a fan of taking a career under-performer after his contract-seeking career year. However, it’s interesting to note that Lynch produced big #’s despite a slow start to the year, which saw him receive 13, 8, 6, & 12 carries in 4 of SEA 1st 5 games. He averaged 22.7 caries from week 8 on after averaging only 9.75 caries in these 4 games. Despite being in the league 5 years, Lynch is only 26 and is as good a bet as any player to lead the league in carries, plus receive the majority of his team’s GL carries. The opportunity and anticipated volume of carries for Lynch is substantial enough that I would definitely take him over Murray at this point.
Those are some good carry stats for Lynch at the beginning of the season, thanks. No doubt Lynch is a workhorse, but I’d be wary of him being able to sustain that kind of workload over a full 16 game slate. Seattle’s offense doesn’t otherwise scare anybody, so he could be looking at more stacked 8-man fronts as well. Look, if he *does* end up maintaining those amount of carries, then he will be worth his ADP on volume alone. But I have my doubts. And I do think his TDs will drop will Murray’s will rise.
The thing about Murray’s “average at best” stretch is that he was still pretty productive in two of those three games. He had 105 total yards vs WAS and 128 total yards vs MIA. Dont’ discount his effectiveness out of the backfield. So in 7 full games, he had 1 bad performance. I’ll take that any time.
It’s not that I don’t like Murray, I do. He started late and finished early. Tough to project that over a full year. Going into the year, I thought he would a great pick in the 3rd round. After doing many mocks, he is starting to sneak into the end of the 1st and I’m not comfortable taking him there. I personally would rather take Lynch. I feel as though few rbs will get the workload he will, as Murray def will lose a few touches to Glass Jones, I his
mean Felix. As far as 8 in the box, I assume defenses were doing that last year as well. His tds worry me too. Dallas is a pass first team, and I dont see that changing.
Lynch went for 250 & 280 carries in his first two years in the league, 285 last year. He’s averaged 14 starts a season for his career. I think he’s got the chops to carry the load as much as before. Why’s he not going to get the rock this year? They paid him, their going to hand it to him. Robert Turbin’s the same back, so less Lynch gets hurt how’s that 4th rounder going to steal touches? If Murray and Lynch are close in your mind, and i said you gotta cuff Murray in 8, or Lynch in 14 who would you pick…
Maybe it’s always all about the dollar dollar bills, but i think it a lot easier for a CJ, who’s seen the tippy top of the running back mountain, to pack it in and climb down, than a Lynch who works most all year to get his 1000 from scrimmage. What’s he gonna pack it in for, being just decent? ha..
That being said, i see a few games missed, and 1200 all purpose this season for Lynch, same old same old, just barely worth the current price tag. I mentally scratch players like that off my wanted list, they just don’t seem worth it. I don’t feel like i’m getting value at all. I keep reading you better draft a runner soon, because it gets ugly in a hurry, but how can it? Someones going to run the damn ball. Is running as a whole going to dip? If so that will effect most everyone. No, someones going to run it, probably going to be a lot of RB injuries and even more RBBC, so we just don’t know who yet. I will not overpay for a single RB this year because of the current direction of the game as a whole. RB’s all of a sudden feel like home prices a few years ago before the bubble burst. Everyone was screaming buy early then too, real glad i didn’t now.
Standing upright i give the nod to Murray, and i love that he catches it out of the backfield for the same reason i drafted McCoy #2 overall last year. RB’s who can catch always seem to get theirs week in and week out in PPR. But i can see why his injury history has them close in ADP. They just don’t make them like Emmitt anymore. So unless i find one at a nice price i’ll be renting elsewhere, and content to ride my stud QB i’ll take over all these late 1st early 2nd RB’s.
[...] The PigskinGuy blog is another excellent source of information and this week @FantasyFBPundit does a guest blog to help you with a Draft Day Decision: Lynch or Murray. Brad Evans (@YahooNoise)from Yahoo Fantasy takes a closer look at whether or not you should draft Adrian Peterson. In that same vein Joe Hoffman (@IconJoe) from Icon Fantasy Sports puts Mark Ingram under a Spotlight. [...]