Source: USAToday.com
It’s been a while since I hit the dynasty league rankings, so I thought I would update them over the next week. I start with quarterbacks, where there’s no shortage of talented young players for dynasty owners to choose from. Here are my updated Top 25 dynasty league quarterbacks with analysis.
1. Aaron Rodgers, Packers
Easy call. Rodgers is the best quarterback in the NFL and he’s only 28. Remember when Brett Favre was the king of Green Bay? That seems like 100 years ago now.
2. Matthew Stafford, Lions
Stafford is only 24 and emerging as one of the NFL’s best quarterbacks. Others would kill to have his weapons. If Stafford stays healthy he’ll put up eye-popping numbers over the next few years. I love Cam Newton but the only quarterback I would rather have than Stafford in a dynasty league format right now is Rodgers.
3. Cam Newton, Panthers
In the past two years all Newton has done is win the starting QB job at Auburn, the Heisman Trophy, a National Title and NFL Rookie of the Year. You want to know the scary thing? Newton is still getting better. Once the Panthers surround this guy with more weapons on the outside the sky’s the limit for him.
4. Drew Brees, Saints
He’s 33 but Brees obviously showed no signs of slowing down last season. He still has a few more big years left in him. Even with all the question marks surrounding the Saints because of the bounty scandal, Brees and the passing game will continue to put up big numbers.
5. Tom Brady, Patriots
Just from working in New England for a few years I got the feeling Brady isn’t going to play until he’s 42. I think he has maybe four more years in him, albeit really good years. The addition of Brandon Lloyd to give Brady a vertical threat certainly won’t hurt his production.
6. Philip Rivers, Chargers
I’m a big Rivers fan. I think he’s one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL and I expect Rivers to have a big bounce back season in 2012. Rivers has many more productive years left in that awkward throwing motion of his. I still view Rivers as an elite quarterback.
7. Matt Ryan, Falcons
Ryan puts up solid numbers and he has great weapons at his disposal but he’s never been an elite fantasy quarterback. I’ve started to warm up to Ryan lately. It’s just a hunch but I think with Michael Turner on the downside of his career Ryan has an Eli Manning-like breakout fantasy season in 2012.
8. Eli Manning, Giants
At 31 Manning is just now reaching the prime of his career. I see Eli only getting better and the Giants have surrounded him with one of the best young group of receivers in the NFL. Manning should be one of the most consistent fantasy quarterbacks over the next few years.
9. Robert Griffin III, Redskins
I wanted to rank Griffin higher but it’s tough with all the talented quarterbacks in the NFL. He should be a fantasy star from Day 1. Griffin is already a good pocket quarterback and his ability to run only adds value for fantasy owners. My only major concern is Griffin is built like a sprinter similar to Mike Vick, so injuries could be a problem.
10. Andrew Luck, Colts
Luck has all the skills to be a great NFL quarterback for many years to come. Now the Colts just need to keep building a team around him and he’ll be a fantasy stud. Reggie Wayne, Austin Collie and the Colts two talented rookie tight ends give Luck some solid weapons in his first season.
11. Tony Romo, Cowboys
People forget that Romo is already 32-years old. He’s a good NFL quarterback but if Dallas doesn’t win soon (and they won’t) Romo will end up being the scapegoat for Jerry Jones’ failures as a general manager. As a Dallas fan I’m afraid Romo will always be a better fantasy quarterback than a real world one. For fantasy owners who don’t give a damn about the Cowboys, that works out just fine.
12. Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers
Big Ben seems like he’s been playing since the 70s but in reality he’s only 30. Here’s a call: The Steelers finally put the offense on Roethlisberger’s shoulders this season. The strength of Pittsburgh’s offense is Big Ben and his talented receivers. Even Todd Haley should be able to figure that out. Roethlisberger has never been a fantasy stud but I like 2012 to be the most productive season of his career.
13. Mike Vick, Eagles
Vick is already 30 and his style of play is a red flag in dynasty leagues. Remember, Newton is built like a tank, where Vick is built like sprinter, making him more susceptible to injuries like I stated above with Griffin. Vick is still very productive but he always comes with risk, especially for dynasty owners.
14. Jay Cutler, Bears
Cutler is only 29 and still has some good years ahead of him. The additions of Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery are a big boost to the passing game. However, there’s also a chance both guys could be gone in three years if they don’t stay motivated. I thought Cutler was playing his best football last year before he got injured. Hopefully that carries over to this season.
15. Andy Dalton, Bengals
I believe Dalton will actually be a better NFL quarterback than a fantasy quarterback. Still, he has some good young weapons in A.J. Green, Jermaine Gresham and Jordan Shipley. I think Dalton will be a solid low-end starter/backup for many years to come.
16. Jake Locker, Titans
Locker has a lot of potential and even if he doesn’t begin 2012 as the Titans starter, he’ll end up there and be entrenched for 2013. His combination of a strong arm and the ability to run is intriguing from a fantasy perspective. In a dynasty league setting Locker is a guy I’m really high on. In two years he could be a Top 10 fantasy quarterback.
17. Sam Bradford, Rams
Bradford has nice value right now in dynasty leagues. The guy has been given nothing to work with so far in St. Louis but that’s slowly changing. Don’t give up on Bradford yet. If he can stay healthy behind that offensive line Bradford has the talent to be a very productive NFL quarterback. The good news is St. Louis has added some talented offensive weapons to help Bradford out. The bad news is Brian Schottenheimer will be calling the plays. You take the good with the bad I guess.
18. Peyton Manning, Broncos
Remember when I said I don’t believe Brady will play until he was 42? Manning is just the opposite. He may play until he’s 60. If the neck isn’t a problem, Manning should have 2-3 more very productive seasons left in him. Then again, if the neck is a problem he may play a quarter and retire. Manning obviously has much more value outside of dynasty leagues.
19. Josh Freeman, Bucs
I didn’t like Freeman coming out of college. I thought he would be a huge bust. He proved me wrong early on but then regressed last year. This is a big season for Freeman with a new regime now in Tampa Bay. If he struggles, the Bucs will be looking elsewhere for a starting quarterback in 2013.
20. Matt Schaub, Texans
Some probably have Schaub rated higher but I see him as being a big tease. Schaub will always be solid but I question if he’ll ever take the next step. Having guys like Jacoby Jones to throw to over the years certainly hasn’t helped Schaub but his most productive seasons may be behind him now that the Texans have a strong rushing attack and good defense.
21. Joe Flacco, Ravens
I don’t see Flacco ever being a reliable fantasy starter. Every time owners try and make him one they e-mail me asking why their team has started 0-4. He’ll spend his career being one of the better fantasy backups though.
22. Alex Smith, 49ers
Smith emerged as a productive fantasy backup last season and if he’s ever going to take the next step, it will be this year. Smith has never had this many weapons to work with before. The smart money though is on Smith remaining more of a game manager for the 49ers and a decent backup for fantasy owners, much like Flacco.
23. Brandon Weeden, Browns
Weeden has the intelligence and physical skills to be successful in the NFL. What he doesn’t have is receivers. The Browns need to surround Weeden with better receivers at some point or he’ll struggle. Hopefully that will happen over time. Weeden has a lot of potential but the Browns passing game is still a work in progress. Over the long haul though I think Weeden is going to be a very good NFL quarterback, making him more valuable to dynasty league owners right now.
24. Ryan Tannehill, Dolphins
Tannehill is a tough guy to judge because we simply haven’t seen a lot from him. One thing in his corner is new coach Joe Philbin proved to be very effective working with quarterbacks in Green Bay. My guess is Tannehill will be starting in Miami at some point this year. That will give us a glimpse of what’s to come in 2013.
25. Christian Ponder, Vikings
Ponder showed some flashes last year but like Weeden, he doesn’t have a lot of weapons to work with right now. Leslie Frazier will get fired at the end of this season, if not sooner, so hopefully Ponder can survive until a better coaching staff arrives. That’s assuming he doesn’t get killed first waiting for guys like Michael Jenkins to get open.
Others to Watch
Matt Flynn, Seahawks
Flynn should be the Seahawks starter this season but it’s not an encouraging sign that he can’t separate himself from Tarvaris Jackson right now. We don’t have a lot to go on with Flynn but he was coached in one of the NFL’s best offensive systems with the Packers. I’m taking a wait and see approach with Flynn because if he can’t beat out Jackson then Seattle is paying way too much money for a bust.
Brock Osweiler, Broncos
I didn’t like Osweiler when he was being talked about as a potential first round pick. However, at pick 57, I like him a lot more. I think Osweiler is inconsistent but that could just be because he hasn’t played much (15 starts in college). Now you just stick Osweiler behind Peyton Manning for two years and let him improve. Osweiler is an intriguing young quarterback because he landed in a good spot for him. He’s definitely worth a shot in dynasty leagues.
Ryan Lindley, Cardinals
I liked Lindley in college for the most part. When I watched him on tape he reminded me a lot of Osweiller. Both guys have big arms but need to work on their consistency. It’s not like Arizona has a quarterback that’s entrenched for the future, so Lindley could be an option in a year or two. If you’re looking for a quarterback to stash as a developmental guy for a couple of years, Lindley is a solid choice.
Follow me on Twitter @ThePigskinGuy
I know QB’s are all the rage this season, but for some reason I find myself trying to avoid them until the Rivers, Ryan, Eli, Big Ben area of the draft. My question is, can we really expect the elite QB’s to throw for 4800+ yards & 40+ TD’s again? I think we are going to see some regression, I’m just not exactly sure how much. I could be way off but I don’t think gap will be as big as last season.
Plus I’m looking at Big Ben & Matt Ryan having career year potential. Ryan is comming off of a very quiet 4000yd/30TD season, entering his prime with two top WR’s, an OC who is looking to throw more & 10 dome games. Big Ben threw for 4000 last year despite playing hurt the last 3 games of the season, he has a pedestrian running game, an improved oline, a bunch of quality WR’s & elite physical talent. I feel like these two could easily finish in the 4-6 range with a very low price tag.
So back to my original question, will the top 3 QB’s will be 100+ points better than 5-8? I could see it going either way, but right now I’m leaning towards not.
You hit on the dilemma cbass. Personally, I only have one QB throwing for 5,000+ yards this year and that’s Stafford. I have Rodgers coming in just under but tossing a few more TD’s. That’s why those are my Top 2 guys. I do think we see a slight regression in numbers. I mean when two tight ends shatter every record in the book, is it reasonable to expect them to put up the same numbers the next year? I say no and the same holds true with quarterbacks. I I still expect big offensive numbers because the rules in the NFL dictate that but not quite as big as last year. Thanks for the feedback.
Brady goes for 5200+ in todays pass happier than ever NFL without a legit wideout on the outside, and now he’s got one, so i have no idea why so many think they’ll be regression, especially in NE. Everyone copies what happens in NE, remember. I wish i had 500K so i could bet it all on more teams trading up in the draft next year, and be a millionaire. There aren’t enough TE in the NFL built like G&G for everyone to copy as well this time though. But rules on what you can do 5 yards down the field didn’t change last i checked, so passing highs stay, and grow.
Spot on with Rivers. Just made a trade involving the 2014 draft, dynasty is the best.
I love dynasty too. I think as fantasy football has gotten more and more popular over the last 10 years, the dynasty format is really taking off. I mean, who doesn’t want to play fantasy football all year long, right?
When you do your rankings how far into the future do you project? Just curious. I have been in my dynasty league for 2 seasons and when I joined, I had never played FF before except in the Sporting News’ now defunct Salary Cap League. Anyway, I have always struggled with how you place a value on a players time in the league and trying to estimate how many productive years he has left, especially at the QB position. I probably gave up too much last year when I traded for Brady since I gave up a first round pick with 2 other players which ultimately will end up being Trent Richardson because my team tanked hard (lost a lot of close games). I figured Tommy has about 4-5 good years left so I have plenty of time to groom a starter to replace him and contend for championships during that time.
Personally, I just find it hard to value Newton and Stafford above Brady using my logic, when Stafford has proven to be injury prone and Newton has a very limited track record. I mean, I understand what the logic in doing so because of their potential, but I still think Brady should be rated higher. JMO.
You can certainly make that argument. See, I think Stafford and Newton are both studs and will continue to be studs in the future, so that plays into my rankings. If I thought they were just good, I would rather have Brady’s four great years over their 10 years. So a lot of it has to do with how you view young players, hence the fun and challenges of a dynasty league. Listen, I’m never going to say ranking Brady over anyone except maybe Rodgers is crazy and that’s only because Rodgers is 28. If you don’t like Newton or Stafford as much as I do then it make sense to rank Brady higher.
Absolutely agree. I might be a little pissed since I missed on Newton in last years draft. Someone took him in the late first round, I was going to get him with my 2nd rounder. There was so much hype with him, a lot of it negative…then I saw him in a preseason game. Took a seven step drop with perfect footwork looked off the safety and let one fly about 70 yards and I just thought “that dude is going to be special”. It wasn’t just his arm strength, but his poise and command. You could see him look over the o-line and scan the field like he owned it. Staffy is friggin awesome, just hope his shoulder holds up. That exact same problem shortened Pennington career. If I owned Stafford I would definitely want to have damn good QB2 who could carry the team just in case. I mean last year was the only healthy year Stafford has had in his career. I do think he is borderline elite, but to me part of being elite is being able to play all 16 games.
I agree. Part of being elite is staying healthy. Just ask Bo Jackson. The most talented football player I’ve ever seen but it will always be “what could have been?” because of that hip injury.
I find with keeper leagues you are often straddling a fine line between winning now or in the future, which is why they are awesome. I always like to acquire elite talent whenever I can get it, even if they are having a down year (see Fitz in 2010). But the one thing I have learned is that you can only win a title in the current year you are playing. If you are always planning for the future, you probably will not win today. You need to get as many players as possible who are having their best year. Tom Brady is money in the bank & there are only a handful of players you can say that about. Richardson is going to be great, but his best years probably will not be for another two or three years. If you win a title in the next two years then it will be worth more than being set up for hypothetical titles 5 years from now. I sold 3 draft picks to help win the title last season & I’m paying for it now. But my name is on the trophy so I’m not upset…
I love dynasty league mostly because I love finding hidden gems like Decker or Foster. I tried to right my ship by buying Brady last year, but it was too late and I had quite a bit of bad fortune. I was on the wrong end of 3-4 games that I lost by 1-3 points….@#$%…..who did you trade for that made the difference?
@ Irish
My WR’s were dying & needed an elite receiver. I had Arian & MJD so I sucked it up and traded MJD for Gronk after week 9 when Gronk still only had 6 TD’s. We have a WR/TE flex & I was able to roll with Gronk & Hernandez for the rest of the season. I filled my hole at RB by giving up picks for Benson & Mathews. MJD blew up right after I traded him, but I was able to manufacture points at RB2 while Gronk was destroying the universe. I did believe Gronk could be my #1 WR when I traded for him, but I had no idea what was about to happen. Needless to say I got lucky.
Whenever I see the “Newton is a tank” explanations for why he’ll be able to hold up long term, I always think back to McNabb vs. Culpepper. One could’ve argued that McNabb’s slender build would’ve led to a shorter career, but personally I think it made him realize sooner the need for change in how he played his game. I’m hoping Reid can get Vick to that same conclusion as well. I think Newton has a huge chance of running himself into the ground and being out of the league by his early thirties. Sure will be fun to watch though.
You have a point Eric but I think Newton will develop more as a passer as his career goes on. Just my opinion. I think Culpepper got a little fat and lazy once he tasted success and that helped lead to his decline. Hopefully that won’t happen to Newton because like you said, he is fun to watch. Thanks for the feedback.
I agree that I think he’ll develop as a passer. My concern is more that he’ll continue rushing for 100+ carries while trying to extend the play all the time like Roethlisberger and taking a lot of punishment in the pocket. Even Culpepper didn’t consistently put up 100+ carries a season.
Also, had no idea McNabb was as big as he is. Initially figured he just put on weight towards the end of his career.
There is always the chance he could take too much punishment. The Tom Brady’s of the world will always be the safer play but guys like Newton will always be intriguing because of the physical skills they bring to the table. It will be interesting to see how it plays out. And yes, McNabb has gotten fat over the years. That’s why he’s currently unemployed. Thanks again for the feedback.
Isn’t there a little bit to be concerned with Newton after seeing Dante Culpepper’s career go the way it went? Culpepper was even bigger than Newton and put up equally impressive stats (if not moreso), but ultimately his running back qualities left him with a running back lifespan. I don’t think the slender build/built like a tank comparison means anything. McNabb was slender too, but managed a solid career by being forced to become a pocket passer. To me, that is what will ultimately determine the long term viability of guys like Vick or Newton.
Have you ever seen McNabb? I don’t get the slender talk about McNabb. The guy is huge. I stood next to McNabb when he was both in college and in the NFL and he is much bigger than Vick. Trust me, it’s not even close. McNabb is a thick guy.
Sorry for the double post there. Had some issues with signing in. Didn’t realize the first went through.