Source: ESPN.com
Auction drafts have become very popular over the past few years. Some fantasy owners won’t do anything but auction leagues because they claim the auction format offer up much more excitement. I must admit I’m still married to the old school draft. I’ve always loved playing the GM and preparing for my fantasy draft like it was the NFL Draft. I am warming up to the auction concept but I suspect I’ll always be a draft guy at heart. Here are some players I feel are being overvalued based on their current auction prices.
Based on a budget of $200
Ryan Mathews, RB Chargers ($34)
I know people are high on Mathews and I am as well to a certain extent but I’m not paying $34 to have him on my fantasy team. That’s $6 less than Ray Rice and $5 more than Chris Johnson. I view Rice as a much safer pick than Mathews and have him and Johnson rated right next to each other so I don’t see a lot of value in Mathews at $34. You can save some money and get a guy like Marshawn Lynch for $25. Even if Mathews out-produces Lynch, I don’t think he’s worth close to $10 more to own. Again, I like Mathews but in a system where spending wisely is the key success, I’m not paying almost as much for Mathews as I am a proven stud like Rice. I’m a bit more cautious in an auction format so when I spend top dollar it’s on guys I trust. At this point, I don’t quite trust Mathews.
Trent Richardson, RB Browns ($31)
I love Richardson but no way in hell am I burning $31 on a rookie running back for the Browns. Again, there’s a big difference between auction and re-draft formats. In a re-draft league it’s easier to erase drafting a guy in Round 2 that doesn’t produce but when you throw down $31 for a running back, it’s harder to swallow if he underachieves. Now I fully expect Richardson to be a stud but we’re talking about value, not talent. Take a look at some of the running backs you can get cheaper than Richardson: Maurice Jones-Drew ($31), Chris Johnson ($29), Darren McFadden ($28), DeMarco Murray ($27), Matt Forte ($27) and Marshawn Lynch ($25). Now look at that list and tell me Richardson is worth his auction price. Let someone else overpay for Richardson while you save some money and grab a more proven commodity on a better offense instead.
Julio Jones, WR Falcons ($26)
I have Jones ranked as a Top 10 fantasy receiver but again this comes down to value. Right now in auction leagues Jones costs more than every receiver except Calvin Johnson ($40), Larry Fitzgerald ($31), A.J. Green ($31) and Wes Welker ($27). The last time I checked Roddy White was still in Atlanta and he led the NFL in targets last season. Now, I fully expect Jones to close the gap this year but why pay $26 for Jones when receiver is such a deep position this year? You can grab a guy like Jordy Nelson for $5 less and Jeremy Maclin for $10 less. I have to be honest, I wouldn’t overpay for receivers in auction leagues. Instead, I would stock up on the guys that cost in the $12-20 range. I think some of those guys are going to end up being studs when it’s all said and done anyways. My strategy would be to get a stud quarterback, a stud running back and receivers like Nelson, Maclin and Brandon Lloyd ($13). I think that’s the way to go in auction leagues this year.
Doug Martin, RB Bucs ($19)
The more I think about it the more I think Martin is the most overvalued player heading into fantasy drafts. I just don’t get where LeGarrette Blount isn’t going to be on the field anymore. I’m not saying Martin won’t get more touches or be the better fantasy player but people are treating this guy like he’s the second coming of Adrian Peterson. Martin is a solid player. However, I don’t see him being a superstar and if you followed Greg Schiano at Rutgers you know that unless he had a running back named Ray Rice, Schiano almost always used a backfield by committee. Schiano likes to use different kinds of backs for different roles. The bottom line is Blount is going to have a much bigger role on the Bucs offense than people are anticipating and because of that, $19 is too much to pay for Martin in my opinion.
Andrew Luck, QB Colts ($16)
Someone tell me why I’m paying $16 for a backup fantasy quarterback? Someone also tell me why Luck is costing me $2 more than Ben Roethlisberger and $3 more than Jay Cutler? I would price Luck more around $11, so I think he’s going $5 too high. Luck is going to be a solid fantasy backup this year but I’m not paying $16 for a backup and that’s not why others are paying that price to get Luck. They’re paying it for him to be their starter. I just don’t see it.
Matt Flynn, QB Seahawks ($9)
Flynn is going in my price range for a backup quarterback but I’m not paying $9 for a guy that doesn’t look good enough in practice to jump past Tarvaris Jackson on the depth chart. Flynn may very well beat out Jackson for the Seahawks starting job but the bottom line is right now the two are neck and neck. Considering I’ve seen Jackson play, that’s a problem for me. I would rather have Ryan Fitzpatrick ($9), Carson Palmer ($8) or Alex Smith ($7) as my backup instead.
Blaine Gabbert, QB Jaguars ($6)
Gabbert is going roughly $6 higher than I would pay for him. I wouldn’t want this guy on my fantasy team if he cost a nickel.
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NIce article. I agree with most of your assessments and also have a different strategy for my auction vs snake drafts. For auction, my plan is basically the same as yours, spend big at QB (Rodgers, Brady, or Stafford) and for a #1 RB (Foster, McCoy or Rice) or two 2nd tier #1 RBs (some combo of: McFadden, Matthews, Richardson, Lynch, etc.) I think there will be many great auction values for the WR in your 11-26 rankings range. In a 3 WR league, I would be completely fine rolling with a crew of Maclin, Bowe, Lloyd, Decker, and Titus Young. You can probably get that group for under $60.
Agree on Julio, who I too love for this year. I want to get him as the 15th most expensive WR, not the 6th. I couldn’t justify paying more for him than someone like Jennings.
The QB values don’t seem right. Unless he’s lighting up the preseason, no way Luck goes for over $10 in my leagues and both Flynn & Gabbert are $1-2 QBs. Also, in my leagues, the top tier RB always go for $50+, so I’m surprised that Rice is going on average for under $40.
I don’t think $19 is bad at all for Doug Martin. I’d be shocked if he’s not the clear starter and 3rd down back. The team traded up to snag him in the 1st and the Bucs could potentially have one of the best O-lines in the league with a new HC that wants to run. I’m also no fan of Blount. I said it before but this bear’s repeating - the guy got beat out last year by 31 year-old career back-up Earnest Graham and Kregg f’ing Lumpkin! Maybe Blount just got hot to end the 2010 season and he’s simply not that good. Anything can happen but I’m not buying that Blount is going to seriously hurt Martin’s value. Think NYG Bradshaw and Jacobs last season. Would you have had a problem paying $19 last season for Bradshaw as your #2 RB? That seems like good value to me. I’m fine with spending under $20 on a RB that has a safe role with a lot of upside as my #2 RB.
I agree that a lot of these values will change. I see Rice closer to $50 too. I can’t believe all the receivers you can get for a decent price. I mean Brandon Lloyd is going for around $13. That’s half of what Julio Jones costs. I’ll take that all day long.
I think I know the answer to this but are these values are based on a $200 budget?
Yes, sorry I forget to put that in. I’m adding it now. Thanks for the question.
Where are these auction values from? This will be my 6th year doing a 12tm $200 budget auction draft and stud RB’s go in the $60 to $70, so Rice for only $40 seems way out of line. Also Mathews at only $3 more than Richardson I’ll take Mathews in a heart beat for $34, I’m expecting him to be $46 on my draft day.
Did a mock last night Foster $75, Rice $71 and McCoy $68. On the other end of the spectrum I got Richardson for $27 and got laughed at for over paying. I’ll take 1,100yds and 9 TD’s with the potential for 1,500 and 13TD’s for half the cost of those studs every day. I paired Richardson with Mathews for $47, so I got my RB1 and RB2 for $74 less than Foster by himself. Oh the team that got Foster paired him with Helu for $20, I’ll take my RB’s and spend my additional $21 on a QB, WR or a RB3.
The only thing I’ll say regarding the prices for Luck, Flynn and Gabbert is, paying more than $5 for your backup QB is over paying.
I got them from the auctions at My Fantasy League. They are on the low side but I couldn’t find any other sites I liked. If you have a better site you use as a guide that you can recommend that would be great. I’m still looking for a good go-to auction site. Thanks.