Source: zimbio.com
One of my goals here at The Pigskin Guy is to bring you new and interesting voices on fantasy football. I mean Christ, even I’m getting sick and tired of listening to my own constant inane babbling about players. So it gives me great pleasure to introduce the debut article from Fantasy FB Pundit.
I’m sure some of you already follow Pundit on Twitter @FantasyFbPundit. If you don’t follow him, you should. Pundit does a tremendous job of delivering great fantasy football information in 140 characters. He also puts together highlights of different players, which are extremely valuable to fantasy owners. If you were going to follow either me or Pundit on Twitter, I would say follow him.
Pundit and I are planning on doing a feature called “Fantasy Faceoff” in the coming weeks where we each take a player and make an argument for him. He’s also going to contribute some pieces like this one where he looks at a couple of guys rated near each other and gives his opinion on who is the better choice come draft day.
In his first post, Pundit tells you why Ryan Mathews should be drafted over Chris Johnson. I think Fantasy FB Pundit did an excellent job of making his argument and giving out a ton of information like he always does. Enjoy.
Chris Johnson vs. Ryan Mathews
One thing I think we can all agree on is that there was no single bigger fantasy letdown last season than Chris Johnson. A consensus Top 5 overall pick in 2011 drafts, CJ finished the year ranking as the pedestrian RB16. To put that in perspective, eternal disappointment and oft-injured Beanie Wells finished ahead of CJ in scoring despite playing in three less games. And not to rehash all the pain suffered last season by CJ owners but it’s worth examining just how ineffective the once-dynamic back truly was in 2011.
If it’s consistency you’re looking for in your 1st-round pick, you didn’t find it with CJ last season. In 12 of 16 games, CJ failed to gain at least 65 yards rushing, scoring a touchdown in just one of those 12 games. In fact, a full 45% of CJ’s fantasy rushing value came against three opponents last year: Carolina, Tampa Bay, and Buffalo. Coincidentally, those three teams ranked 25th, 32nd, and 28th, respectively, in rushing yards allowed. There’s nothing wrong with beating up on weaker opponents — that’s what elite players should do — but it’s telling when that production doesn’t carry over against more stout run defenses.
Of course, there’s a ready-made excuse built in for CJ supporters this season: that his holdout from last year caused him to come into the season out of shape, which is probably true and helps explain (somewhat) his awful performance in the first eight games. But besides the three games mentioned above, CJ didn’t perform that much better over the second half of the season either, when, presumably, conditioning was no longer an issue.
His rushing stats in the Titans’ final four games: 11/23/0, 15/55/0, 15/56/0, 15/61/0. For those scoring at home, that comes to a pathetic 3.48 yards per carry. According to ESPN’s Sarah Walsh, 15 running backs ran for 1,000+ yards last year. The Bengals Cedric Benson had the worst yards per carry average of the bunch. Second worst? Chris Johnson.
If you want a larger sample size, let’s go back and include his 2010 season. You could argue that the warning signs for CJ’s decline started not last year, but the year before. He averaged 4.3 yards per carry in 2010. For some perspective, here are some 2011 yards per carry stats: LeSean McCoy (4.8), Ray Rice (4.7), Michael Turner (4.5), Beanie Wells (4.3), and Shonn Greene (4.2).
Now, when we combine his 2010 and 2011 seasons — a robust sample size of 578 carries — Johnson’s average yards per carry over that span is a miserable 4.17. Given all that information, I’m now to assume a resurgence is in the offing in 2012 worthy of his current mid-1st-round ADP? Sorry, but I’m not buying it — especially when I see headlines like this for the upcoming season.
Johnson has value as an RB1 because he’s an every-down back on a pretty good offense who also catches passes — in a year devoid of many true RB1s — but if you’re expecting the CJ of 2009, well, three years is a long time ago.
***
The Ryan Mathews propaganda has been in full swing this summer. Here’s one of a handful of glowing pieces I’ve already seen so far on the third-year back. And the reason for optimism is warranted. Mathews was already a more efficient back than CJ last year on a per-touch basis. More than a full yard better per-touch, in fact: his 272/1,546/5.68 line is easily more impressive than CJ’s 319/1,465/4.59.
When Mathews got the opportunity last season, he shined: in the six games where he got 20 or more touches, Mathews averaged 24.7 touches for 138.2 yards per game, reaching the end zone four times along the way. That dovetails nicely with the news that Mathews is set to receive the lion’s share of backfield touches for the Chargers this season — some outlets are speculating 20-30 carries per game, now that Mike Tolbert is out of the picture.
Oh, yeah — about Tolbert. His move to Carolina cannot be overstated when it comes to projecting Mathews’ value for 2012. As Mathews owners from last season are acutely aware, Tolbert siphoned off a lot of value, playing in almost 45% of San Diego’s snaps, receiving 175 touches and scoring 10 touchdowns.
With Tolbert now out of the picture, much of that production is Mathews’ for the taking. If we attribute even 30% of Tolbert’s 2011 production to Mathews, then Mathews would’ve finished the season as a Top 5 RB overall. When you combine his efficiency with his expected uptick in touches, it’s hard not to love Mathews as a high-end RB1 prospect this year.
That said, I’d be remiss if I didn’t address the main knock against Mathews: his perceived lack of toughness. In his first two seasons, Mathews has already missed six games. And with an increase in touches on the horizon, will the fragile back be able to handle the extra punishment? The answer is, frankly, that I don’t know.
Football is a tough sport. A lot of players, especially running backs, get hit and suffer injuries. Some are luckier than others. But unless we are talking about concussions, I don’t think “injury history” is much of anything to pay attention to. Remember when Matthew Stafford was “injury prone”, until he wasn’t, and then threw for 5,000+ yards and 40+ TDs last season?
Mathews is already a more efficient player than Johnson. This season, he’s expected to also close the gap in number of touches. He plays with a better quarterback, he’s younger than Johnson, and his production, unlike Johnson’s, has not been trending in the wrong direction for two years. So if you’re sitting there on draft day in the middle of Round 1, looking to lock-up your RB1 for 2012, remember that not only does Mathews have more upside than CJ, but he’s a safer pick as well.
…close call either way, pros and cons on both sides…
I agree Rick. I like CJ more than Pundit does but he did give me a lot to think about in this article.
I don’t really concern myself with years past, well at least to a certain degree. I think the fact that people have been down on CJ and the things that have been said about him will drive him this year. With a healthy Britt, Nate W., and Kendall Wright now…they should be able to open it up some more for him. I like him late 1st or latest 2nd rd.
I love Ryan Mathews, always have since he came out of Fresno St. I’m completely torn on who to draft btwn. the two because Mathews upside in this high powered offense is enormous.
I agree with your point about Britt and Wright. The Titans didn’t have a lot of speed at receiver last year once Britt went out. I thought Wright was the fastest football player in the draft so if they all stay healthy, it’s going to be tough for defenses to stack the line to stop the run.
I was almost sold on CJ if he was available mid round and now I don’t know, he might come back guns flaring and shut us all up, or he might pull another weak ass 3/4 of the season.
I’ll wait for training camps to see who looks better
I faced he dilemma of which of these guys to pick from the 6 spot in a recent 12 team PPR draft. I ended up grabbing Johnson partly because in PPR leagues even his horrendous season last year was a top 10 PPR season. I love Mathews this year and believe he will do major things this year but I don’t think his injury history can be understated. Normally I pay no attention to injury history but if you really sit down and look at Mathews he appears to be a true glass player. He has not played a full season of football since his junior year IN HIGH SCHOOL. There’s a good chance that if he has missed games in 7 consecutive seasons, he is going to miss time this season. That said, I expect his FPPG to be so much higher than Johnson that its easy to still justify picking him. Still I just want a nice safe pick in round 1. I’ll win my leagues in the later rounds of the draft. I’d rather not worry about the guys I draft early.
Be honest, if you’re actually making this call on D day, don’t you feel like you’re trying to dodge a bullet? I don’t even want to be in a position to have to ask myself such a loaded question. I think of these two guys as wannabes to the top backs, who actually exhibit power and willingness to play through pain. RB is the most injury prone position as it is, I don’t want that kind of risk with my 2nd pick of the day, let alone my 1st. I mean we’re all spitting out a lot of reasons to have doubts with these two jokers, and the good points for Mathews, if they pan out, only get him in the same company with the top backs. So if i was of the mindset to take an RB in 1, i’d trade up to one of the 4 more surer guys.
Clearly neither are in the same tier as Foster, Rice, or McCoy. But you’re only getting one of those guys if you have a top 3, maybe top 4 pick. Otherwise, this is a decision many owners will be forced to make. And if you think these two “wannabes” are not worthy of RB1 consideration, take a look at the RBs going after them — it gets ugly, quick. And you’re going to need starting RBs either way. I mean there’s no way I’m taking a “safe” WR like Fitzgerald in Round 1 and then hoping a guy like SJax pans out as my RB1. You wait on RB this year at your peril, when you look at who will be available. If Mathews gives me 13-14 games at top 5 PPG production — which is exactly what I think he’ll do — then I’m happy.
Trading up for draft picks is a minority in fantasy leagues….most leagues don’t do it.
Mood point…
Just swapping picks with someone else before the draft, if you allow player trades, why not allow that? Whatever your “Mood” ha. These two slackers are weak, risky first round picks at best. It’s always smarter to gamble when the odds aren’t as high in the houses favor. How do you make out on CJ or RM at pick 7 or 8? You either get what you should have, or they do give you a great year and end up in the mix with Foster and crew, who you could have gotten a few picks earlier. But they’ve both shown they don’t wanna play football sometimes, i’m not drafting that, first overall? Not me. If you’re league won’t let me swap picks ill just take a QB at 7, a TE in 2, a defense and kicker in 15 & 16, and no way in hell i can’t find 2 RB’s 2 WR’s and a flex with picks 3-14, and 14 waiver wire weeks. If there both there middle of round 2 and someone puts a gun to my head, i’d take Mathews, at least he’s scheduled to get the load. And i’m going to a Chargers game this year, so i’d also be able to yell at him in person when he takes himself out in the 4th quarter again. I could see Fad, Forte, Richardson, and Peterson, and Sproles in PPR, all right there or better in points by years end, and you can get those guys in rd 2/3 easy. I just think past the top 4 everyone has plenty of ifs, so why would anyone think they can see through all the fog and want to be the first to cliff dive. Whys he gonna be more motivated this time, just because? And who cares if he is when he’s not going to be as big a part of the offense. And most importantly, he’s lost his speed, watch the tape, it’s gone.
i’m actually faced with this delima in my keeper league were we are allowed to keep one player. i have the #2 pick with my keeper being Megatron. Rumor has it Stafford is going #1. That being said, I’m leaning towards CJ. I really like Matthews, just feel like CJ is a little more durable, and has more to prove. Hoping last year was a fluke with everything that went on with him, holdout, lockout, etc
Nerd, watching the tape of 2010 and 2011 and the thing that stands out to me is that the blocking was much better prior to 2011. Not much drop off in speed, if any. I don’t think the gold teeth are weighing him down at all. Hopefully most people feel like you do so I can get him late in round one or early round two
It’s a tough call between these 2 really: everyone can make their argument & be right. In our league only ~12 points separated them and it could be the same this year as RM gets more points per game but plays fewer games. Regardless, one question I would like to ask is should playoff schedule be considered? It’s a variable I take into account although I don’t always place a ton of weight on it since you never know who is going to be strong on defense. However, let’s look at these guys: CJ plays Houston week 13, and they gave the 2nd fewest points to RBs last year. RM plays Cinci week 13 & they were somewhat tough on RBs; then he plays PIT week 14 who is nearly always tough. I try to avoid tough RB match-ups in playoffs if possible although sometimes it’s hard to do. Personally I have neither on my radar since I will be looking for similar RBs with better playoff match-ups and, more for RM than CJ, someone who has a better injury track record.
Do you honestly think you can blacklist a player in June, because of the matchup he’s got late December? Wait, i mean, you think you can pick a better RB on draft day based on his late December matchup? Man that’s more harsh on these two then even i would be. Big time players do show up in big time games you know? I’ll agree neither are big time players worth a first round pick, but not less my RB is slated to play the Steelers Steel Curtain D of the 70′s in week 14 am i even beginning to think about match ups months away.
I agree with nerd on this one. So early, we don’t even know who the good defenses are gonna be yet. Pits D wasn’t nearly as good as years past, so if you skipped someone last year beacause of a fantasy matchup you would’ve really sold yourself short. Can’t look into that to much. Also have to laugh when people say these are not 1st round backs? Really? So you think there are only 4 backs worthy of a 1st round pick? Fine, take Gronk 1st round, I’d be happy with either one of these backs pick 6 or later
I have only been playing a few years and I’m trying to find out what gets me to win a championship. Last year I had a good team but bad luck. My RB’s were Ray Rice, Steven Jackson & Matt Forte. I had them in (using one as a flex) my 1st playoff game & Jackson was going against San Fran. Well, Forte got hurt in the 1st qtr that game & Jackson only got me 3 points - and I lost by 5 points. So I went from being the top seed in my league to being 1 and done. Now, I didn’t know at the beginning of the season that San Fran was going to have such a strong def, but you can pretty much count on a few such as Pittsburgh & Baltimore being pretty darn tough match-ups year in & year out - ones that I would rather avoid. Maybe I am over-thinking things but to me it seems logical; unfortunately you don’t always get to count on logic while drafting and need to take the best player available. Thanks for your input.
I guess i’m a cheap ass. I feel like I’m over paying for either in the 1st. I don’t think Gronk’s worth a 1 either for the record. I put 4 QB’s in the 1st, but that still gets them both in the door right at 11&12 if i made a list. I like both backs to be productive this year, i just don’t see there numbers being that much greater, or more of al lock to happen, then any of the backs in the 11-26 range, + Sproles if you’re PPR. If they fell to 11/12 i guess i’d begrudgingly pull the trigger,… right after i take Stafford!
I love sproles and considered taking him instead of those twi mentioned. I may be being greedy, but I’m hoping he drops and I can grab him on the way back.
Steve Hutchison’s addition to the line should help a fair bit for CJ. I think arguing a guy has lost his speed permanently at 26 with no major injury is ridiculous. The fact that Munchak hasn’t made any move at RB whatsoever suggests he thinks there’s nothing wrong with CJ and if there was a pronounced loss of speed that would be pretty noticeable. I think considering CJ as early as five is overshooting it, but I’d have no problem taking him at 7 or 8 after Rice, McCoy, Foster, MJD, Rodgers, Ca. Johnson.
I think arguing a guy hasn’t lost his speed, JUST because he’s 26 and hasn’t had a major injury is a lot more ridiculous. If you can look at 09 and 11 runs and see the same speed, you might need to push your way in front of those judges from the Pacquiao fight, in the line to the eye doctor. If CJ wasn’t only speed and juke i wouldn’t be so down on him, but that’s what he did best. Since they didn’t move the edge any closer i don’t think he gets there any faster. You sure Munchak can even afford to make a “move at RB” after giving him 60 large? I’d assume Tennessee’s pretty stuck with him for a bit, and i wouldn’t hold my breath for anyone from the team to say what the eye in the sky already knows. That’s Warren Sapp’s job.
The team made a serious run at Peyton and could have save $17 million on CJ by cutting him in March. His entire contract was four years with $30 guaranteed, so would’ve had to eat an extra $15 million of their cap due to amortization of the signing bonus. That would suck, no doubt, but its not like this is a team poised for a run at the Superbowl.
CJ averaged 4.74 yrds per carry starting from November. Last year, he put up 100 yards or more every time where he got more than 20 carries with the exception of the Baltimore game where he was admittedly out of shape (second game of the year) and faced the Ravens who were the number one team in the league giving up a meagre 3.5 yards per carry for the season (while outpacing Ray Rice in that game as well)
Finally, any examples of a superstar running back suddenly losing his speed and becoming useless with no injury? Just saying its ridiculous is all well and good, but given that it never happens, I’d expect at least a rough theory on how it would be possible.
Do you really think there has “never” been an example of a running back free of major injury losing his speed? I think it quite obvious speed is most often the first skill to diminish. I’m not saying the dudes slow and completely useless now, but if you’re saying gimmy a theory, i say look at the tape and gimmy a theory as to why he never got it going all year. “4.74 yrds per carry starting from November”, who cares? As the article above pointed out, a full 45% of CJ’s fantasy rushing value came against three shit run stopping D’s during the time you speak of. He also went 15/56 vs JAX, 15/55 vs Indy, 11/23 vs NO, and 12/13 vs ATL, with all those games coming after 11/20 as well. Don’t fool yourself into thinking he got it going by the end of the year. You can’t sandbag it when someones chasing you down, you can’t stay out of shape for 17 weeks. 20 carries a game happened only 5 times last year, and theres a link up there to a story explaining why thats not going to move the direction CJ owners would like. Does anyone really look at CJ and think he’s that kind of back? Even when he was getting 300 touches a year, i remember a lot of nothing runs. He was a home run hitter who had inhuman speed. How long do you really think 4.24 speed lasts? First round talent still?… You sure?
There probably has been, but the fact that you keep speaking in vague terms instead of just throwing out an example suggests they’re really not common. I can’t think of any offhand and I don’t there’s ever been a guy rush for 2k yards and just up and disappear at such a young age without injury being a factor.
I’ve already explained my reasoning on this. The o-line was terrible last year and the addition of Hutchison should help. RBs not named CJ in Tennessee rushed for 3.43 yrds per carry last year. Compare that to 4.03 in 2010 and 4.15 in 2009 and you should be able to see a major problem. This led to CJ getting a lot more beat up than prior years and I suspect thats why he’s talking about adding weight. Do you honestly believe that Ringer, CJ and the mid round pick (Harper) suddenly all lost the ability to run the ball at the same time? Further, it was the exact same line as in 2010. The one major change was switching from Munchak to Matthews at o-line coach. Maybe Bruce Matthews is a terrible coach, but my guess is that him and Palmer didn’t have the time to properly install a philosophy at the line with no offseason. It’s certainly a risk of repeating, but not something I’m overly concerned about given that Munchak is coaching the team.
Further, with regards to the article cited, what coach is going to openly state his game plan this early in the year? Palmer’s history suggests 300 carries for the lead back is well within reach (re: Dominik Davis in Houston) and with 50 receptions that puts CJ at 350 touches which isnt 400, but is still first rounder territory and perfectly alright with me.
CJ tries for the home run every play and it’s glaringly obvious the past couple of seasons. Sure, he killed some weak defenses in the middle of the season but ended the last few games on a poor note, just like he started. I personally believe he is the most overrated back in the league right now. People are so high on this guy and acting as if it’s three years ago. He has so many negatives working against him. He already got his money, he’s not very big and has taken very heavy workloads the last few years (this will catch up with him), he doesn’t seem to take what the defense gives him (see Jamal Charles, Foster, etc to see how this is done), and doesn’t really seem to possess great vision. He’s just fast and looks as if he’s starting to slow a bit. I can’t wait till he burns his remaining believers once again.