I start my position-by-position ADP breakdown with quarterbacks. I decided to use information from MyFantasyLeague.com this time around because it was a little different from some other sites out there. Based on the average of over 200 early drafts the Top 5 quarterbacks are going in first 20 picks at My Fantasy League. Here’s a look at where the quarterbacks are being selected on average and my thoughts as to who is undervalued and overvalued right now.
Based on a 12-team league flex format with 1 point awarded per reception
Round 1
Aaron Rodgers, Packers (5)
Cam Newton, Panthers (10)
Round 2
Drew Brees, Saints (15)
Matthew Stafford, Lions (18)
Tom Brady, Patriots (19)
Round 5
Mike Vick, Eagles (54)
Eli Manning, Giants (56)
Round 6
Tony Romo, Cowboys (62)
Philip Rivers, Chargers (63)
Matt Ryan, Falcons (68)
Round 7
Peyton Manning, Broncos (77)
Robert Griffin III, Redskins (82)
Round 8
Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers (96)
Round 10
Andrew Luck, Colts (109)
Matt Schaub, Texans (113)
Jay Cutler, Bears (115)
Round 11
Andy Dalton, Bengals (128)
Josh Freeman, Bucs (130)
Round 12
Sam Bradford, Rams (134)
Round 13
Jake Locker, Titans (147)
Joe Flacco, Ravens (155)
Round 14
Carson Palmer, Raiders (166)
Matt Flynn, Seahawks (168)
Round 15
Ryan Fitzpatrick, Bills (172)
Undervalued
Rivers – I was hoping Rivers would be undervalued this season and so far that’s exactly what’s happening. When a player has an off year I look at it to see if it’s becoming the norm or if it’s an aberration. I believe 2011 was an aberration for Rivers. The Chargers keep telling us he wasn’t hurt but I watched Rivers closely from mid-season on and he simply wasn’t getting much on his throws. That raises a red flag with me considering Rivers has always thrown with good velocity. I’m not concerned with the Chargers losing Vincent Jackson either. I believe Robert Meachem can do the same thing Jackson did; which is run fly routes most of the time. The running game looks good on paper with Ryan Mathews but he’s hardly the most durable player in the NFL. If I think I can draft Rivers in the fifth or sixth round, I’ll jump all over him.
Cutler - I must like Cutler a lot more than most people. I can see him going in Round 10 but I can’t see Luck and Schaub going ahead of him. Cutler may never be a Top 5 fantasy quarterback but he’s put up solid numbers with below-average receivers. Now with Brandon Marshall in the mix and what should be a strong running game to help him out, I expect Cutler to have one of his best seasons in 2012. I have Cutler ranked as a Top 12 fantasy quarterback, so getting him to be your backup in the tenth or eleventh round represents good value in my opinion.
Palmer - I think Palmer is going to be a solid fantasy backup this season. He throws his share of interceptions but Palmer also has a lot of weapons to work with in Oakland. He should be a good matchup play against weaker pass defenses. I would much rather have Palmer as a backup over guys like Freeman, Schaub and Flacco personally.
Overvalued
Griffin – I like Griffin and I expect him to have fantasy value right off the bat but I don’t know if I want the success of my fantasy team riding on it. Not every rookie is going to be Cam Newton. Newton is a special player. He came in and blew up the league from Week 1. I see Griffin being a good fantasy quarterback but I wouldn’t draft him with a guy like Roethlisberger still on the board. If I have a chance to take a veteran I’m projecting to have a good year, I’ll always take him over a rookie with potential. I’m nitpicking a little but the fact that Griffin is going a full round ahead of Roethlisberger is the main reason I say he’s a little overvalued right now.
Overall Thoughts
There aren’t many surprises in terms of the order of quarterbacks being taken off the board. It’s no surprise to me that Newton is gaining steam. He’s one of the most popular players in the NFL right now and fantasy owners are always enamored with quarterbacks that can run. He may be going a little too high but I think Newton is a beast, so I can’t complain too much.
For those looking to take a quarterback early, the drafts over at My Fantasy League so far suggest you need to strike in the first two rounds if you’re targeting one of the Top 5 guys. Rodgers, Newton, Brady, Brees and Stafford are all going off the board on average in the first 19 picks. Stafford is going a lot earlier at My Fantasy League than some other places. Considering he’s my No. 2 rated quarterback, Stafford going in the Top 20 makes sense to me.
Just like the last time I looked at ADP, there’s a gap between the first five guys and the next group of quarterbacks coming off the board. The difference between Stafford and Vick is 35 picks, which is pretty big. So people are hitting the first five hard and then sitting back and waiting a couple of rounds before another run on quarterbacks starts.
If you decide to wait a bit on a quarterback I really like the guys going in Round 6. In my opinion you can win a fantasy title with Romo, Rivers or Ryan as your starting quarterback. Even Peyton Manning in Round 7 and Big Ben in Round 8 are two guys I would feel comfortable starting this year.
The run on the top backups starts in Round 10 with Luck, Cutler and Schaub coming off the board. I like Cutler the most out of that group, especially if you grab Griffin to be your starter. I think getting Cutler a couple of rounds later as insurance makes sense if you plan on starting a rookie. Two guys going in Round 14 that intrigue me are Palmer and Flynn. I already stated I like Palmer that late but Flynn is nice value at the end of the draft as well. Seattle has some talent at the skill positions, so if Flynn is the real deal he’ll put up good fantasy numbers this season.
Overall I think people have to decide if they want one of the Top 5 guys or not. If so, you better grab one in the first two rounds because they aren’t going to last long in most leagues. If you decide to wait on a quarterback, it looks like the fifth and sixth rounds are when you’ll have to make a move if you want to land one of those guys in the next group. So to me that’s the most telling thing to come out of the early drafts at My fantasy League. If you want one of the highly rated quarterbacks, you’ll need to jump on him early. I think that’s going to be the case in a majority of leagues this year. Those top quarterbacks simply aren’t going to last very long once August rolls around.
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Was extremely surprised to see Cam Newton in the 1st rd. I feel that is way to high for him, espicially since Brady, Brees, & Stafford were drafted after him. If that’s were he is trending, you can have him. I thought your mock of the 3rd round was a better slot for him. Also surprising was after 1&2, 3&4 were skipped all together. I know ive mentioned this, I just can’t get myself to take a qb in the 1st 2 rounds where Rivers, both Mannings, & Ryan are going 3-4 rounds later. If rivers is available in the 5th round in my leagues, I will be estatic
I would love to get Rivers in Round 5. I had a feeling Cam would start moving up. I love the guy but I wouldn’t take him over Brady or Brees. That’s a bit much. There seems to be that two or three round gap based on all the ADPs I’ve seen. I guess after the run on the Top 5 people are waiting to get a quarterback a few rounds later.
I think VICK will be a top 5 QB this year and I’m getting him in the 4th rd all day, an that coming from a COWBOYS fan.
Just think, he was going in the Top 5 in some drafts last year. I’ve been looking more and more at Vick. I usually don’t like to own him but there is certainly some value associated with him this year. Depending on how my drafts go, I could see myself drafting Vick if the timing is right.
When oh when to take a passer. Heres the dilemma as i see it…
If Team A takes a QB in round 2, and Team B in 5. Team B gets a one round head start (starting in round 2) to build his core team. Team B relinquishes that lead in round 5 when he concedes he can wait no more and finally drafts a QB. Now everyone who waits on a QB hopes there guy performs above expectations, but we all know Team B probably just gave up 100 FPTS on the year waiting to take one. That’s why five owners will pay a first or second round price tag for their respective golden goose this season. Did Team A lose 100 FPTS passing on a RB in 2, and coming right back to draft one in round 3? Team B gets his WR in 3 and Team A gets his in 4. In 5 we’re back to even Steven Jackson. In the very likely event Team B’s QB underperforms Team A’s, did he make up all that ground in rounds 3-4? I think that’s going to be tough. Heaven forbid Team B misses on one pick entirely in rounds 1-4, because if Team A doesn’t i don’t see Team B recovering. And it’s a lot easier for Team A not to whiff early, taking who the league protects like china dolls.
So in conclusion i think if you pass on Rodgers, Brees, Brady, Cam and Stafford you better not miss on all your other early picks, and whatever QB you take in 5 better at least hold his own. If you do whiff once more then the Cam owner early, i think you’re round 5 QB now is forced to jump into the elite QB conversation or you’re playing major catchup.
Also, i’m not sure of the stats on this, but it seems guys like Cam and Rodgers can red carpet walk you to wins all by themselves throughout the year, with a lot more frequency than the guys in 5 and beyond. If that’s the case i’ll take a weakened core all year, and a 7 and 6 record to the playoffs as long as i got a top 5 guy. By week 14, for week 14 specifically, i’ll fill my other holes a lot easier then the guy who’s QB just isn’t quite elite enough.
Furthermore, if i was picking early 3 and Cam or Stafford were still there i’d take a second top 5 guy, because no way you can’t trade him for a proven RB/WR later. Take the draft day whiff right out of a round 3 pick? Sign me up!
Two things Nerd. First, I had Brees last year and he did win me games all by himself at times, that’s why I’m not opposed to taking a stud QB early anymore. Second, let me play devil’s advocate for a minute. Do we know for sure that a Vick or Rivers won’t outperform say Cam Newton? I mean those are two pretty productive quarterbacks over their careers. I think it’s an interesting debate. Personally, I think you can go either way and still be in good shape, especially with all the depth I see at receiver. You mentioned the guy taking a QB early. Say he gets Chris Johnson and Cam. I think there are some receivers going in the fourth round and later that will outperform guys going in the first two rounds, so you could hit big. I can live with CJ, Cam and Brandon Marshall to start my team if that’s how it fell. Thanks as always for the detailed response.
I think Vick could get into the elite QB conversation again, if somehow he manages to stay healthy. Not just stay in games, but stay healthy so he can perform in games. He’s too small to do what Cam can and ultimately i don’t think he can. Few weeks back i heard Vick in an on field SoundFX type clip on NFLN, talking about running less, how he can’t take those hits and needs to stay in the pocket, and then he mentioned the R word in reference to how many years he had left. I don’t want any part of a guy even thinking about retirement, and trying to change his game style after years. Unless i thought he’d come out gang busters vs CLE, BAL, AZ, & NYG,…. (don’t know abut that one) then look to trade him. He’s played 16 games once in his career, 6 years ago. Sure he might win it for you any Sunday, but unlike the real elite QB’s he won’t lose it for you for 4 games a year while you’re starting Kevin Kolb and wishing ribs would heal faster, haha
Rivers might be right up there again if he did have a hush hush mystery injury last year, but i just see later QB’s as a risky proposition not worth taking when you consider all the turnover at RB, and crazy depth this year at WR.
I have a t-shirt with Cams face on it, that says “Yes We Cam”. I’m wearing it to draft day just in the hopes i get Cam, so i can pull my own superman move when i call his name, ha. Great fact i read someone tweet about Cam, that i’ll now adjust to my leagues scoring system. Take away all Cam’s rushing TD’s and he still finishes 9th in QB scoring. If anyones got a sophomore slump pipe for Cam, stick that in it and smoke it
That’s interesting about Vick. I didn’t know that. Let’s face it, the guy is a head case to begin with. I don’t like that at all. I never draft Vick to begin with and if he’s going to try and be more of a pocket passer to prolong his career I want nothing to do with him this year either.
I draft in a weird league, and by weird I mean many people don’t draft as we’re used to and several QB’s go in the 1st round. It’s a standard league though in terms of starting 1 QB, 2 RBs, 2 WRs, 1 TE, 1 Flex, 1 K and 1 DEF, and scoring is normal, too. Here is how the people that drafted QB’s in the 1st round ended up last year: The person who drafted Rodgers finished 6-6 and was lucky to make the playoffs; he didn’t win the championship. The people who drafted Brees, Rivers and Vick in the 1st round didn’t even make the playoffs. Technically, Brady was drafted as the first pick in round 2 but that is the same as being drafted last in round 1 - that person did well but didn’t win the championship, and in fact he lost his 1st playoff game. The person that won the title found gold by drafting Stafford in either the 4th or 5th round.
The strange thing is, people do this every year in our league and every year it’s the same thing: those who draft QBs in round 1 either don’t make or barely make the playoffs, or never go far, and NEVER (repeat, NEVER) have they won a championship in our league.
Nerd talks about these elite QBs carrying their team, and that seems to be the truth since these teams generally lack significantly at other positions - they’re dependent on the QB having a good game. Nerd also states that people who don’t draft QBs early better do well with their 1st 4 picks; from my experience it is way more critical for those who draft a QB 1st since they are getting significantly worse people at the other skill positions in rounds 2 - 4, and the drop off from these positions is steeper than at QB.
The 1st year I ever played I drafted Tom Brady with my first pick. Someone dropped out of the league at essentially the last minute & they asked me if I wanted to take his place. I said I’d try and I’ll admit I had no idea what I was doing - I did no research. I didn’t even know to take a cheat sheet but luckily someone gave one to me. Tom Brady played 7 minutes that season! However… I was able to make the playoffs with Matt Cassel (& Gus Frerotte!) as my QB. So one of the 1st things I learned playing this game is that I don’t need to use my first pick on a QB - there are other “gems” out there.
I honestly believe the best thing you can do, which, of course, is impossible to know, is to get a top 5 QB in round 5 or later - after getting the best RBs and WRs early. I am willing to bet that some that are ranked as a top 5 QB now will not be a top 5 QB come December, and someone you didn’t expect to be, will be. It happens often, it’s just a matter of doing your research and/or taking a risk.
I really thought the guy that drafted Cam Newton in the last round last year wasted a pick - he finished 2nd. Come August I’ll be looking for the next Stafford/Newton, and laughing when Rodgers is taken with the 1st overall pick.
Good luck to all of you. And sorry for rambling.
No problem, I love rambling. Thanks for the info about your league. Again, people have all different approaches to drafting. I make a ton of trades and waiver wire moves personally so by the end of the year my draft is pretty much meaningless anyway. So in your league are you expecting Rodgers, Brady, Brees, cam and Stafford to all go in the first round or just some of them? Thanks again for the comment.
…”Nerd also states that people who don’t draft QBs early better do well with their 1st 4 picks; from my experience it is way more critical for those who draft a QB 1st since they are getting significantly worse people at the other skill positions in rounds 2 – 4, and the drop off from these positions is steeper than at QB.”…
I gotta take umbrage with this one statement. Drop off at QB is way steeper than at RB, and insanely more steep than at WR. Even having to start two of each position spot, it’s still no contest, this is why so many QB’s go so soon, and even 2nd tier QB’s go before most position players. This is why you can’t fine stud QB’s on the wire, even when a Brady goes down no one can step in and replace a Brees/Rivers/Vick/Manning/etc/etc. The RB’s in 2 are by no means that much more of a sure pick then those in 3, in fact i know historically its closer to 50/50 then anyone would like to admit.
One leagues results are something to consider, but just a drop in the bucket ultimately. I’m sure if all leaves we’re polled those who drafted stud QB’s last year didn’t do worse then those who waited. Mind you i have not been a QB first drafter over the years, but with the new roof on top QB scoring i think the game has shifted. 5000 passing yards being so obtainable now is a game changer, and 4 guys flirting with Marino’s umpteen year old record proved its no fluke. Twenty five percent of your league just got an extra benjamin in starting lineup scoring by years end, time to adjust IMO.
There are a few dozen holes for any team to fall in and keep them from the playoffs tween draft day and week 14, but with “43% of starting” RB’s and WR’s come by their roles despite not being drafted as such”, you’re not getting me to try and flip a coin right 4 times in a row before i concede and pick the big if that is Vick in round 5.
Rivers might come back,.. i don’t think Romo is elite,.. if Manning stays healthy he could pan out, lot of new things for him in mile high though,… Ben’s new OC could be good news for him, could be an adjustment period,.. can an elite QB really come from the windy city? maybe,… i could go on but i think you get the point, lot of ifs past the top 5. Why risk it when i know i’ll wire more then a few position spots in 14 weeks.
Good luck as well, to everyone reading this not in my league that is