It’s mock draft time again. As we get closer to the season draft positions are starting to settle into place. Here’s my latest three round mock draft based on my personal rankings and current average draft positions.
Based on a 12-team league flex format with 1 point awarded per reception
Round 1
1. Arian Foster, RB Texans
When you add in touches, touchdowns, receptions and overall skill level, Foster would be my top overall pick.
2. LeSean McCoy, RB Eagles
The Eagles lost starting LT Jason Peters for the season but with his ability as a receiver, McCoy is still worthy of a Top 3 pick.
3. Ray Rice, RB Ravens
Rice is always good to fantasy owners but this could be his best season yet. I can’t argue against Rice being the first player off the board. The Top 3 basically comes down to personal preference in a PPR league.
4. Calvin Johnson, WR Lions
The most dominant player in the NFL right now. Megatron could break some single-season receiving records in 2012.
5. Aaron Rodgers, QB Packers
I used to say Peyton Manning was the safest pick in all of fantasy football. That honor now goes to Rodgers. In reality, the only thing that can stop Rodgers from putting up huge numbers is an injury.
6. Maurice Jones-Drew, RB Jaguars
MJD showed last year what he can with absolutely no passing game to support him. The guy is not only productive but he’s tough. My only worry is the garbage offense in Jacksonville will finally catch up with Jones-Drew.
7. Ryan Mathews, RB Chargers
Mathews has the talent and versatility to be the top scoring running back in fantasy football. If he plays 16 games, Mathews will put up monster numbers. Heck, I’ll take 13 games from Mathews.
8. Chris Johnson, RB Titans
I’m expecting a big bounce-back year out of Johnson. I don’t think he was ready to play football at all in 2011.
9. Darren McFadden, RB Raiders
When healthy last year McFadden was the best back in the NFL. Like Mathews, if McFadden ever stays on the field for 16 games he’ll put up scary numbers.
10. Larry Fitzgerald, WR Cardinals
Fitzgerald has caught 170 passes over the last two seasons despite playing with below average quarterbacks. If Kevin Kolb or John Skelton can improve, Fitz will catch over 100 balls.
11. Tom Brady, QB Patriots
If Rodgers is the safest pick, Brady isn’t far behind. When you look at all the great quarterbacks throughout the years, I would argue Brady has done the most with the least. Despite his ridiculous haircut, expect another huge season out of Brady.
12. Marshawn Lynch, RB Seahawks
I’m one of the people not down on Lynch for this year because he got paid. I actually think he’s being a bit undervalued. I would love to get him at the turn to be my No. 1 running back. Not many backs will get fed the ball as much as Lynch this season.
Round 2
13. Rob Gonkowski, TE Patriots
If you like touchdowns, Gronkowski is your guy. Gronk has scored 27 times in his first two seasons. That’s a scary number for a receiver, never mind a tight end.
14. Matt Forte, RB Bears
A contract dispute and Michael Bush are two reasons to not like Forte. Talent and production are two reasons to like him. I just hope the contract issue gets resolved soon.
15. Trent Richardson, RB Browns
Richardson is going higher in some drafts but early Round 2 seems like a perfect landing spot for the talented rookie. Not many running backs will touch the ball more in 2012.
16. Darren Sproles, RB Saints
Sproles caught 86 balls last year and he’s the running back on the field when the Saints throw. That’s good news because the Saints love to throw.
17. Matthew Stafford, QB Lions
I think Stafford is going to lead the NFL in passing yards and he has a plethora of talented targets at his disposal. He’s clearly established himself as an elite fantasy quarterback. I have Stafford ranked as my No. 2 fantasy quarterback right behind Rodgers.
18. DeMarco Murray, RB Cowboys
Murray excites me as a Dallas fan and he should get most of the carries as long as he stays healthy. I think Murray is a little overvalued right now but he’s certainly worth a Top 20 pick in PPR formats.
19. Brandon Marshall, WR Bears
I have Marshall ranked as my No. 3 fantasy receiver. I think he’s going to have a huge year with Jay Cutler throwing him the ball.
20. Adrian Peterson, RB Vikings
We’ll know more about Peterson’s knee later in the summer but even if he’s healthy Toby Gerhart will likely play on passing downs to steal receptions.
21. Drew Brees, QB Saints
There’s a lot of uncertainty surrounding the Saints this year but Brees and the passing game should keep rolling despite all the problems.
22. Wes Welker, WR Patriots
The guy catches 100 balls a year. You can pretty much set your watch to it. Think of it this way; if Welker’s receptions drop by 22 he’ll still hit 100.
23. Andre Johnson, WR Texans
Johnson is one of the most hotly debated players heading into the summer. He still has elite skills when healthy but the Texans are a different team in 2012. Houston wins with defense and running the football now.
24. Jimmy Graham, TE Saints
Graham is one of the biggest matchup nightmares in the NFL right now. You may not want to take a tight end this high but Graham is certainly worthy of being a Top 25 pick.
Source: lubbockonline.com
Round 3
25. A.J. Green, WR Bengals
Green is a special talent and I expect his numbers to go up across the board this season. This will be the last year you’ll be able to get Green outside the first two rounds.
26. Cam Newton, QB Panthers
Newton had a rookie season for the ages and I don’t expect any kind of sophomore slump. The fact that Newton is still improving is scary.
27. Roddy White, WR Falcons
Julio Jones is coming but White still led the NFL in targets last season. He’ll be the Falcons No. 1 receiver for one more year but expect the emergence of Jones to cut into White’s production a little.
28. Jamaal Charles, RB Chiefs
Charles doesn’t need a lot of touches to produce but I believe his reception numbers will go down with Peyton Hillis in KC. Still, Charles is one of the most electrifying players in the NFL and those guys are never bad to own.
29. Hakeem Nicks, WR Giants
The mounting injuries are a concern but Nicks is still one of the most productive receivers in the NFL. I may downgrade him more as we get closer to the season but right now I would gladly take Nicks in Round 3.
30. Steven Jackson, RB Rams
Pretty good value with Jackson in the middle of Round 3. Isaiah Pead will take some of the pressure off Jackson but the big guy is still the primary option in the Rams backfield for at least one more year.
31. Ahmad Bradshaw, RB Giants
One of the most underrated players in fantasy football. Rookie David Wilson will get some touches for sure but Bradshaw is entrenched as the No. 1 back on a very good offense.
32. Victor Cruz, WR Giants
I don’t see Cruz being a one-year wonder. He’s going to keep hurting defenses over the middle of the field and Cruz plays with one of the NFL’s best quarterbacks. I don’t see him slowing down much in 2012. If Nicks’ foot injury lingers, move Cruz up some.
33. Fred Jackson, RB Bills
C.J. Spiller will no doubt have a bigger role in the Bills offense this season. However, I see Jackson holding him off for one more year. When healthy over the last two seasons Jackson has been a fantasy stud.
34. Julio Jones, WR Falcons
I have Jones rated as a Top 10 fantasy receiver. I think he’ll put up over 1,000 yards and double-digit touchdowns in 2012. I would love to snag him at the end of Round 3.
35. Greg Jennings, WR Packers
I’m a little down on Jennings this year. I like him but the guy had identical stats as Dez Bryant in 2011. My call is Bryant has better stats than Jennings in 2012. I wouldn’t take Jennings this high personally but I can’t argue with those who would. The guy finds the end zone and plays with Rodgers. Hard to argue against that reasoning.
36. Michael Turner, RB Falcons
Turner has some value at the end of Round 3 but I’m not high on him personally. He’s a back that looks to be in decline and doesn’t catch any passes. I think this is the year we see Turner’s production start to slip.
How the first 36 picks break down:
Quarterbacks: 5
Running Backs: 18
Wide Receivers: 11
Tight Ends: 2
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if you had a choice of Chris Johnson or Ryan Matthews, who would you prefer? I agree Matthews is line for a huge year, just get concerned with his injury history.
I have them ranked right next to each other but I would probably take Johnson. I agree about the injury concerns and I think Johnson is going to come back and put up big numbers this year. Plus, like Mathews, he will get almost all of the touches. A slight lean to CJ.
37 Ronnie Hillman - lol
I almost put at 36 just as a joke. lol By the time drafts start he may be going that high for Christ sakes.
I like MJD and CJ for round 1. What turns the scale in favor of CJ for me is the fact that the idiotic OC from Atlanta is now in Jacksonville, as if that offense needed help being awful.
Round 2 is where I find the biggest pool of talent that can be a huge hit or a miss. All of them, except the Pats and Saints on the list, have the talent to make your fantasy team a scary thing to behold, but are either on bad teams, behind awful Olines, have new coaches or come from an injured plagued season. I have been able to get Andre Johnson two years in a row and when he produces, my god he’s a blessing, but when he goes down with injury it’s been trade time.
I hope more leagues follow your path and let Charles drop to round 3 cause he’s a guy I’d pounce on in 2, I think he, like CJ, is going to come out blazing to prove he still got it.
I like Charles. I just hate the fact that Hillis is there for PPR purposes. I don’t mind Charles losing goal line carries but Hillis is such a good receiver that it’s the decline in receptions that worries me the most with him this year.
interesting as always. i agree with you on Stafford. Should have a fantastic year coming up if he & Calvin can stay healthy. Interesting note on Stafford, back in March his ADP was early 2nd round (2.01). Now i’s early 3rd round (3.04!). No idea why he’s slip like this - unless the warmth of last year’s amazing run is fading while worries of his injury history resurface. thoughts?
It’s the Cam Newton love. Newton is one of the most popular players in the NFL right now and it’s showing in the early mocks. Cam and Stafford had similar ADPs a month ago but now Newton’s has gone up and Stafford’s has gone down. I think most people agree on the Big 3 but now Newton has clearly become that No. 4 guy in a lot of drafts. I think that’s the biggest reason why Stafford is slipping a bit.
they must not be reading your mock draft column or QB rankings
That’s probably good news for them. lol
I’m in a 12 team ppr keeper league where we can keep two players from year to year. I’m keeping DMC for a 4th and A Hernandez for a 9th I think this year. I could keep Stafford for a 2, M Bush for a 6, Helu for a 8 or Hillis for a 10. Definitely leaning towards DMC and Hernandez though. Thoughts? Also, I have the 7th pic. If Megatron is off the board would you go RB w/ Mathews, MJD or CJ OR QB w/ Rodgers or Brady? Who best to pair with those keepers?
I would keep McFadden and Hernandez and then go with with a quarterback. I would actually think about getting Stafford back. I have him rated as my No. 2 quarterback this year so Stafford, McFadden and Hernandez would be a good start to a strong fantasy squad in my opinion. Thanks for the question. Good luck.
Let me clarify, I would consider Stafford if Rodgers is off the board. If Rodgers is there he would be my pick.