It seems like every running back in the NFL is either returning from a serious injury or in the middle of a contract dispute. In Matt Forte’s case, it’s both. I’ve said all offseason that the running back position is more uncertain from top to bottom than it has been in a long time. I have a feeling there will be more than a couple of guys who come out of nowhere and help fantasy owners this year. Here now are my updated Top 75 running backs for the 2012 season.
2012 Fantasy Running Back Rankings
(Last updated on June 15)
Rankings are based on a 12-team league flex format with 1 point awarded per reception
1. Arian Foster, Texans
2. LeSean McCoy, Eagles
3. Ray Rice, Ravens
4. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars
5. Ryan Mathews, Chargers
6. Chris Johnson, Titans
7. Darren McFadden, Raiders
8. Marshawn Lynch, Seahawks
9. DeMarco Murray, Cowboys ↑
10. Trent Richardson, Browns
11. Darren Sproles, Saints
12. Matt Forte, Bears ↓
13. Jamaal Charles, Chiefs ↑
14. Ahmad Bradshaw, Giants
15. Steven Jackson, Rams
16. Adrian Peterson, Vikings ↓
17. Fred Jackson, Bills
18. Reggie Bush, Dolphins ↑
19. Frank Gore, 49ers ↓
20. Michael Turner, Falcons
21. Doug Martin, Bucs ↓
22. Beanie Wells, Cardinals
23. James Starks, Packers ↑
24. Roy Helu, Redskins
25. Jahvid Best, Lions ↑
26. Isaac Redman, Steelers ↓
27. Shonn Greene, Jets
28. Michael Bush, Bears ↑
29. Peyton Hillis, Chiefs ↑
30. C.J. Spiller, Bills
31. BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Bengals ↓
32. Jonathan Stewart, Panthers
33. LeGarrette Blount, Bucs ↑
34. Willis McGahee, Broncos ↓
35. Stevan Ridley, Patriots ↓
36. Ronnie Hillman, Broncos
37. Mark Ingram, Saints ↓
38. Toby Gerhart, Vikings ↑
39. Donald Brown, Colts
40. Ben Tate, Texans
41. David Wilson, Giants ↑
42. Ryan Williams, Cardinals ↑
43. Shane Vereen, Patriots ↑
44. Kendall Hunter, 49ers ↑
45. DeAngelo Williams, Panthers
46. Felix Jones, Cowboys
47. Mikel Leshoure, Lions
48. Jacquizz Rodgers, Falcons ↑
49. Isaiah Pead, Rams
50. Pierre Thomas, Saints ↓
51. Rashad Jennings, Jaguars ↑
52. Mike Goodson, Raiders
53. LaMichael James 49ers
54. Daniel Thomas, Dolphins ↓
55. Mike Tolbert, Panthers
56. Rashard Mendenhall, Steelers ↑
57. Dion Lewis, Eagles ↑
58. Jason Snelling, Falcons ↑
59. Bernard Scott, Bengals
60. Tim Hightower, Redskins ↓
61. Ronnie Brown, Chargers ↑
62. Kevin Smith, Lions
63. Brandon Jacobs, 49ers
64. Evan Royster, Redskins
65. Alex Green, Packers ↑
66. Delone Carter, Colts
67. Javon Ringer, Titans
68. Bernard Pierce, RB Ravens ↑
69. Robert Turbin, Seahawks
70. Christopher Ivory, Saints
71. Brandon Jackson, Browns ↑
72. Danny Woodhead, Patriots ↓
73. Lance Ball, Broncos ↑
74. Terrance Ganaway, Jets ↑
75. Taiwan Jones, Raiders ↓
Just Missed
Joe McKnight, Jets
Le’Ron McClain, Chargers
Brandon Saine, Packers
Lamar Miller, Dolphins
Going Up
Hillman - Just search his name on the front page of my blog and 30+ articles will come up. Even I’m getting sick of talking about him at this point.
Best - I’ve always been high on Best but it worries me that he’s one hit away from retiring. I saw where someone said recently that you can’t predict Best will get hurt because Austin Collie has a history of concussions and he played 16 games last year. Do I even have to tell you what’s wrong with that thinking?
For me to have to point out the obvious fact that Best handles the ball way more than Collie does every week feels like I’m insulting your intelligence. If you just go by catches Collie caught 54 last year and Best 27. Now add in Best’s 84 rushing attempts while keeping in mind he played five games to Collie’s 16 and you see the major hole in that person’s theory.
Also, Best has had concussion problems dating back to his college days. You can’t predict injuries but someone who’s had four concussions since he turned 20 is more likely to be held out for a longer period of time than a random player that takes a blow to the head.
Listen, if Best stays healthy he’ll be a beast in PPR leagues but the chances of that happening are slim with his history of concussions. After saying all that, I have Best moving up in my rankings if that makes any sense.
Starks - I liked Starks coming out of the draft a couple of years ago and I’m still high on him. The Packers will never run the ball a lot but I think Starks’ skill-set is a good fit for Green Bay’s offense. Now with Ryan Grant out of the way, Starks should post career bests across the board in 2012. If he doesn’t, it’s a problem. With an ADP of Round 7 in PPR leagues, Starks offers some good value for fantasy owners. Everything is in place for Starks to have the best season of his career and getting the Packers starting running back in the seventh round isn’t bad. I do like Alex Green as well in the late rounds but right now Starks is clearly the man in Green Bay.
Michael Bush - The longer Matt Forte is sitting at home in a contract dispute, the higher Bush moves up the boards. I love Forte but the Bears think they can win without him. It should be an interesting next couple of months in Chicago.
Ryan Williams – My Ronnie Hillman of last year, Williams injured his knee in preseason and never played a down. I said after he was drafted that once Beanie Wells got injured (a mathematical certainty) Williams would come in and never give up the starting job. We would of had a chance to see if I was right if not for Williams’ injury.
So basically we’re back to the same exact spot this season. Wells is talented but he’s also the one player in the NFL I feel comfortable guaranteeing won’t play 16 games. OK, maybe Malcom Floyd too. Since Williams is coming off a serious injury himself, I want to see how he looks once he returns in training camp. Based on last year though, I had Williams ranked as one of the Top 15 players in the draft.
We know Beanie will go down at some point (again, a mathematical certainty), so if Williams looks healthy, getting him in Round 9 or 10 could prove to be a steal. Also, dynasty league owners should be all over Williams assuming his knee checks out.
Coming Down
Peterson - To me Peterson going roughly in the Top 20 picks of a PPR league is too high. First of all, we don’t even know if Peterson will be healthy to start the season. Second, even when Peterson does return, Toby Gerhart is going to spell him on passing downs and steal away most of the receptions. I actually think Gerhart should be moving up draft boards. I really don’t have any desire to own Peterson in PPR leagues this year.
Ridley - I’ve been a big Ridley fan since he was at LSU but it appears he’ll be splitting time with Shane Vereen this year. There’s a chance one of New England’s young backs could separate himself as the season goes on but right now Ridley and Vereen should be ranked pretty close as co-starters.
Ingram - Ingram’s latest knee procedure isn’t expected to be serious but three knee surgeries in three years is never a good sign for a running back. Now the Saints aren’t sure if Ingram will even be ready for training camp. That’s too many red flags for me when we’re talking about a guy that plays in a crowded backfield and is getting selected in Round 7 on average.
Daniel Thomas - I’ve never been a big Thomas fan. The thing I pointed out about Thomas coming out of college is he’s way too tentative running between the tackles. I think that criticism was justified considering Thomas was one of the worst short yardage backs in the NFL last year. Remember people claiming Thomas was this great goal line back? Well, he scored zero rushing touchdowns as a rookie despite getting at least 11 carries (ones I saw personally) from inside the 5-yard line. I’m awful at math but even I know a 0% success rate isn’t very good.
Thomas’ current ADP puts him in Round 9 and that’s too high for me. Thomas didn’t look like an NFL running back when I watched him at Kansas State and he didn’t look like one as a rookie. He’ll need to get a lot better fast to help fantasy owners this season and beyond. I do love Reggie Bush more and more though. I think with Joe Philbin now in Miami Bush will have the best season of his career. I moved Bush up to 18 in my updated rankings. He’s a really nice pick in the fourth/fifth round area.
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I know its really early but my league is having our draft next week. Due to weddings, vacations, and that one member works overseas for months at a time. I have pick 9 I plan on going Matthews, Johnson or DMC there and then hoping these fools dont land Trich at 16. I feel that the bears could care less about Forte. They basically said that when they signed Bush. What round should I target Bush?
I would target Bush in Round 5 or 6 this early if you need a RB in your draft. The worst case scenario is you get a flex play that may score once a week. I wouldn’t reach for him but if you’re looking for a RB in the fifth or sixth round he may be worth a shot this early. Good luck.
One Guy I know little about who I have drafted since I’ve seen him on your lists is Dion Lewis… I drafted him in round 18 the other night and got a comment “Wow, now we’re drafting Dion Lewis in the 18th”…..To me, it’s a silly comment anyway because in a 26 round FFPC style draft once round 18 hits you’re in the middle of Defense / Kicker / GRAB YOUR GUY mode….. Maybe I could wait but, looking back I don’t see one RB drafted after I tool Lewis that I like - Benson, Mcknight, Turbin, Woodhead, Snelling? I do like the comment though because anything that makes you go back and look deeper (or ask Tom) is a plus.
But, still - Is he the Guy? Primary Backup? Good deal fo work anyway for these ALl-Play leagues?
These drafts - BTW are a ton of fun - Monday Night Live drafts for $77.00 All-Play - no Mgt…
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Same format as Pros-Joes (maybe I said too much
I have always loved Lewis and I’ll tell you why he has value: He went to the perfect team. Everything Lewis does well fits into what the Eagles do on offense. He’s a small guy but if McCoy goes down he’ll catch a ton of balls and have quite a bit of fantasy value. The Eagles have very little at RB right now so Lewis is a valuable handcuff. He won’t run inside as well as McCoy but he would catch just as many passes in that offense. Looking forward to Pros vs. Joes.
I already asked you about your opinion on the Forte/Bush debacle in Chicago via twitter, so all I can say is July can’t come soon enough so we get some real camp reports and see where this train is headed.
Two years ago I landed Hillis almost by mistake on what seemed to be a lopsided trade and it was his breakout year, last year I nabbed him and paid the price for my hubris, but this year I am starting to like him as a RB3 that could be a surprise and become a RB2. Which round would you say is the best to get him at best value?
I think Round 7 is a good spot for Hillis. I really like him as a solid flex play this year in PPR leagues. I think he has a lot of fantasy value. I’m looking to get him myself.
Follow up question, a lot of people play the tandem game with RBs, which would you say is a surefire tandem? When the bears took Bush I stopped thinking of my CJ plans and go Forte/Bush but since Bush is going higher and higher on rankings I don’t even know if that’s possible anymore unless I spent my first two rounds on them.
Which do you consider the best value-cost tandem to keep an eye on?
I would say Jamaal Charles and Peyton Hillis. You should be able to start both of those guys every week in a PPR league.
For the past few seasons I’ve avoided rbs, unless I was top five pick. And always had a wr with one of my 1st 2 picks. I just didn’t feel the vaulue was there for a rb in the latter half of the round. This year I’m feeling completely different, and actually considered going back to the stone ages of rb/rb with my 1st 2 picks. If some of these mocks hold true and can grab a Cj with first pick and come back around with Marshawn Lynch, I would be thrilled. I just feel the other position offer so much depth, where rbs drop off greatly after the top ten or so. Thoughts?
I would be happy as hell with CJ and Lynch. I think that’s a great start to your team. There is a ton of depth at receiver and tight end, so you can still get studs at those positions in my opinion.
Quick question. Im in Keeper league where we keep one player and my player is A. Foster. I have the 3rd pick in this years draft and my debate is should I pick another rb at that pick or try to secure M. Stafford and get my 2nd rb or wr in the 2nd and 3rds. Its a 12 team league so Mcoy, Rice, Mathews, C. Johnson will be gone.
If you can’t get a stud RB I would go with Stafford. I don’t care what anyone says you can win a lot of weeks with just those two guys on your roster. I think that’s the way to go. Good luck.
I will try to stay away from the Detroit backfield in my draft this year.
I think that’s a smart move. That team is going to throw a lot more than it’s going to run.
Going to have to call bullshart on myself here. I talked to the knee specialist who is going to do some work on my knee and we got to talking about FF, more specifically Purple Jezus. He said Given today’s medical techniques and Peterson’s alien genetics, he SHOULD comeback stronger than ever. This doctor specializes in really advanced stuff like meniscus replacement, chondral repair, etc. so he would know. He said stay away from AP this season, but look to buy him cheap in 2013……he also said stay away from Peyton, no matter what the docs say. Since he had 4 procedures, something is not right, something they are not telling us. I stand corrected on both points.