I continue my ADP breakdown with a look at running backs. I mentioned when I did the quarterbacks that I decided to use information from over 200 drafts at MyFantasyLeague.com because the results were different from other sites. That’s really evident with the running back position. At My Fantasy League you’ll notice a lot of running backs are going later than expected, signaling a shift in philosophy with owners drafting quarterbacks, receivers and tight ends earlier than ever before. Here’s the current ADP of running backs, along with my thoughts on who is being undervalued and overvalued.
Based on a 12-team league flex format with 1 point awarded per reception
Round 1
Arian Foster, Texans (2)
LeSean McCoy, Eagles (3)
Ray Rice, Ravens (4)
Ryan Mathews, Chargers (9)
Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars (10)
Chris Johnson, Titans (11)
Round 2
Matt Forte, Bears (16)
Darren McFadden, Raiders (18)
Adrian Peterson, Vikings (21)
Jamaal Charles, Chiefs (22)
DeMarco Murray, Cowboys (24)
Round 3
Trent Richardson, Browns (27)
Marshawn Lynch, Seahawks (28)
Darren Sproles, Saints (35)
Round 4
Steven Jackson, Rams (43)
Ahmad Bradshaw, Giants (45)
Round 5
Frank Gore, 49ers (53)
Fred Jackson, Bills (56)
Jonathan Stewart, Panthers (58)
Reggie Bush, Dolphins (60)
Round 6
Roy Helu, Redskins (61)
C.J. Spiller, Bills (62)
Michael Turner, Falcons (63)
Doug Martin, Bucs (65)
Beanie Wells, Cardinals (70)
Mark Ingram, Saints (72)
Round 7
Shonn Greene, Jets (82)
Round 8
Jahvid Best, Lions (87)
Ben Tate, Texans (92)
Michael Bush, Bears (95)
BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Bengals (96)
Round 9
Isaac Redman, Steelers (99)
David Wilson, Giants (103)
Peyton Hillis, Chiefs (107)
Round 10
DeAngelo Williams, Panthers(109)
Rashard Mendenhall, Steelers (113)
Willis McGahee, Broncos (115)
Ronnie Hillman, Broncos (118)
LeGarrette Blount, Bucs (119)
Stevan Ridley, Patriots (120)
Round 11
Donald Brown, Colts (121)
Mikel Leshoure, Lions (124)
Ryan Williams, Cardinals (131)
Round 12
Daniel Thomas, Dolphins (135)
James Starks, Packers (137)
Lamar Miller, Dolphins (138)
Kendall Hunter, 49ers (140)
Isaiah Pead, Rams (143)
Round 13
Jacquizz Rodgers, Falcons (149)
Felix Jones, Cowboys (150)
Toby Gerhart, Vikings (154)
Shane Vereen, Patriots (156)
Round 14
Pierre Thomas, Saints (159)
LaMichael James, 49ers (163)
Round 15
Kevin Smith, Lions (173)
Alex Green, Packers (177)
Mike Tolbert, Panthers (178)
Mike Goodson, Raiders (180)
Undervalued
Lynch - There aren’t many running backs that are in line to get the amount of work Lynch will see in Seattle. Regardless of who the starting quarterback is for the Seahawks, they’re going to rely heavily on the running game. I would consider Lynch at the end of Round 1 or early in Round 2, so I’m surprised he’s lasting this long on average. I think getting Lynch in the third round would be a steal.
Redman - I guess people aren’t buying into Redman yet. I can’t see Mendenhall playing the first half of the season, which means Redman will get a bulk of the carries for the Steelers. To get a guy in Round 9 who will be the primary back for a strong offense is pretty good value. I view Redman as more of a fifth round pick personally, so seeing him last until Round 9 is obviously a surprise to me.
Starks - The last time I checked Starks was the starting running back on the Packers. That alone should get you drafted ahead of a guy like Daniel Thomas. I like Alex Green and think he could be a surprise but there’s no way Starks should be going that late. At the very least Starks will be a solid flex play in PPR leagues as long as he stays healthy.
Overvalued
Peterson - There aren’t many running backs being overvalued in these drafts but to me Peterson going roughly in the Top 20 picks of a PPR league is too high. First of all, we don’t even know if Peterson will be healthy to start the season. Second, even when Peterson does return, Toby Gerhart is going to spell him on passing downs and steal away most of the receptions. I actually think Gerhart going way down in Round 13 is great value. I really don’t have any desire to own Peterson in PPR leagues this year.
Overall Thoughts
I’m guessing when I do the ADP breakdown for receivers at My Fantasy League we’re going to see a lot of them going early on. This is why I chose to use data from My Fantasy League. I was really surprised to see how low some of the running backs were being drafted.
To get guys like Lynch, Richardson or Sproles in Round 3 means there must be a huge run on receivers in the second round. Based on all the backs going in Rounds 5 and 6, it appears people are grabbing a stud quarterback and stockpiling receivers first before addressing the running back position. I think it’s interesting because after Round 2 people are waiting to grab running backs for the most part. That means there’s a lot of value in the later rounds.
I’m not sure this is how a majority of leagues will draft but then again we’re talking about information compiled from over 200 drafts over at My Fantasy League, so maybe it is. I’ll be interested to hear some feedback on running backs going lower than they historically do. Is this a new trend or just skewed averages from a few early drafts? I’m guessing you won’t be able to get Marshawn Lynch and Trent Richardson in Round 3 of too many drafts come August.
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I have done quite a few drafts this year already at masters. While some of these ADP’s are still holding, some are changing quite a bit. In the 10 or so drafts I have done since late may, Lynch is going mid 2 to early 3rd round. Richardson is more of a mid 2nd round now. Sproles is still a 3rd round but is creeping up. Some trends that I have observed lately include: McFadden is now on the boarderline of being drafted in round 1. S.Jackson and F. Jackson have moved into the 3rd. Gore has moved up to the 4th round. D. Martin and Helu have both moved up into the 5th. Green_Ellis and Redman have both moved into the 6th round.While Best has moved up into the 7th, Stewart has now slipped to the 7th. Mcgahee, Starks and Hillis have trended up into the 8th. Hillman, Brown, Williams, Mendenhall and Ridley have all trended up into the 9th. Leshoure and R. Williams have moved into the 10th. F Jones and Pead have moved into the 11th. Gerhart, Rodgers, P. Thomas and Vereen have all trended up into the 12th. L. Miller, K. Smith and Hunter have trended up into 13. Hightower and Goodson have moved into the 14th. So, with the exception of J. Stewart, the trends are all moving up for running backs, which is exactly what you are saying,
I want to thank you for your site. You do an excellent job with breaking things down and giving meaningful insight for your readers. Hopefully this info will lend insight to your readers. Thanks
Thanks a lot for the feedback Darren. I’m always looking for more insight and I appreciate you sharing some of the trends from the mock drafts you have done. The more information the better. Thanks again.
Who ever wants to take a QB or WR in 1 & 2 good luck to you, just means I’ll have better selection to chose from when I go RBRB!!
Interesting… WR drafting from myfantasyleague seems to be split into “elite WR’s” and “everybody else”. The first 25 picks seems include (not in order) the elite QB’s (top 5), the elite TE’s (top 2), the elite WR’s (top 7-8), and the elite RB’s (top 10-11). The rest of WR’s, RB’s, QB’s, etc are taken afterwards. In other words, the “elite WR’s” (Calvin, Fitz, Green, Welker, Julio) do get drafted ahead of the likes of Lynch, Richardson & Sproles. This is interesting to me, since this represents a huge shift from previous years where the first 25 picks were heavily dominated by RB’s.
Then again, Lynch, Richardson & Sproles are going 11th and 12th overall in other (higher volume) sites such as http://fantasyfootballcalculator.com/adp.php. Wonder how often myfantasyleague is refreshed.
They update My Fantasy League pretty regularly. That’s why I wanted to post the info because it is a lot different from Fantasy Football Calculator. It just gives us something else to discuss during these lean summer months I suppose.
hey tom,
do you think that the cowboys losing their fullback fiamatta will have a big impact on demarco murray’s production. last season when fiamatta was out with concussion symptoms murray’s production was significantly reduced. that may have been more contributed to the defense’s that the boys faced, but it still has me a little worried. i know that they picked up vickers in free agency but i don’t think he’s half the blocker that fiamatta was and is.
I do think Fiammetta is a pretty big loss. He really played well last year. I will say that in the games he didn’t play one of the reasons why Murray struggled was because he was getting hit in the backfield right after he got the hand-off a lot of times. So that defender getting through would often times get clipped off by Fiammetta and allow Murray to get going. Vickers is a decent blocker but I was surprised they didn’t re-sign Fiammetta. Actually I wasn’t because nothing those idiots do anymore really surprises me. I guess a better word would be I was disappointed they didn’t re-sign him. I thought he really played well last year but he was injured a lot. The Cowboys do line up a tight end in the backfield as well, so they can always go with that formation more if Vickers struggles.
also thanks for bringing “my fantasy league” to my attention. it’s a great tool for tracking the trends and game planing a good draft day strategy. keep up the good work, always look forward to your posts.
No problem. If I find something I think is helpful I will always bring it to your attention. Thanks for following the blog. I appreciate it.
I agree with most of the draft positions. Agree totally that Starks is being way undervalued. Anyone want to talk fantasy lemme know. @bearesquibel, milehighfantasy.wordpress.com
PSG, great information as always. Was going through this list with some buddies getting ready for the season and we started discussing the topic of injury prone/”frail” simply running backs that tend to get injured or that aren’t built to take the pounding that a lead back will in any system. Two things really stood out.
Nobody wants to say it but, Number One: (and he was not injury prone, but likely will be from now on) Adrian Peterson is DONE as a stud lead back. He will never be the same. He may flash here and there, he may even manage to put together another 1000 yard season, but the type of injury he had, even with today’s surgical techniques, was catastrophic for a running back, especially one with his style of running. If he tries to maintain running with that style, he will not make it through the season. He may prolong his career by becoming less aggressive, less physical. Also, if you look at the number of carries he has had in his 6 years in the league, he has significant mileage on those tires. For me he’s a mid to late round flier and I expect his numbers to trend down significantly into the end of his career, which will be another 3 years max. ADP of 21 is absurd.
Number Two: Darren McFadden is fool’s gold. Given his production his ADP of 18 is a joke. The guy has had one pretty good season in 2010. Even then, he did not play a full season. Every other year, he has either been a part time lead back or been nicked up and now he is coming back from a pretty serious foot injury. Sure there is potential upside, but if you hide his name and look at his stats, I really don’t see the profile of a potentially elite back. His numbers are not that much better than Michael Bush and a number of other backs you could pick up in the later rounds. Plus he is wildly inconsistent. As a top ten RB their is not much value there and he is too big a gamble to be using a second round pick on, at least in my book.
Would love to hear your opinions Tom and anyone else. Really getting excited for the upcoming season.
I tend to agree, especially about Peterson. I don’t think he’s quite finished yet but he’s no longer worthy of being a Top 15 pick in fantasy drafts, especially in PPR leagues. I’ll be honest, I had Peterson for a time over the last two years and I couldn’t wait to trade him. He was good but in a PPR league he doesn’t catch enough balls. I got a lot of 12 and 15 point weeks out of him and that’s average scoring for a No. 1 back. McFadden will probably always break our hearts. Two problems are he doesn’t seem to like pain and he’s built like a receiver. He has those long skinny legs. The guy has amazing talent but it’s tough to use a first round pick on a guy who gets hurt as much as he does. I would likely take a shot on McFadden over Peterson though. I love Peterson but I have no interest in owning him this year. Thanks for the feedback.
I might be a little too negative on Peterson, the guy is an unbelievable athlete and if anyone can overcome this injury, he can. Wes Welker had a similar injury and came back stronger than ever, but the RB position is different than receiver and the way Peterson plays it is with such wreckless abandon. I put that together with his number of carries and then the fact that defensive players will be targeting that knee….well, we will find out if Purple Jesus is human or not.
And McFadden, you are so right, I couldn’t agree more. That’s why I have a hard time buying into him and guys like Spiller, Charles, they are build like greyhounds….I just can buy into spending a high draft pick on them. The 2 guys that defy logic are Chris Johnson and Lesean McCoy. McCoy is a little bigger than Johnson, but Johnson just amazes me, a guy his size getting 300+ carries, double digit touchdowns, running inside, just incredible.
Johnson has inhuman quickness and change of direction. People are down on him now but when Johnson is right there isn’t a more physically gifted running back in the NFL. People forget quickly but Johnson does things no one else can do because of his freakish speed. I think that helps him avoid a lot of big hits that other backs his size can’t because they simply don’t have his speed. He may wear down soon but I think he has at least one more big year in him. We’ll see.
…and it always pains me to think that Dallas was in position to draft CJ (and Steven Jackson back in 2004 I think?). Instead we got Felix Jones, Julius Jones and Jacob Rodgers…….yea
Yeah, the problem with drafting McFadden is that you have to pay full price to get him, which is early to middle of rd 2. With his injury history, you would think that you could get him in rd 3 or 4. I guess you could argue that you are getting a discount because, if he stays healthy, he would be top 5 maybe even the #1 overall RB. The positives though are that he’s still only 24 and just lost one of the top back-up RB’s and TD vulture as competition. The injury history is scary but it’s probably still a little premature to automatically assume that he will never make it thru a full season. If and when he does, he’s going to be a fantasy monster.
I’ve watched a lot of CJ’s best runs from 2011 http://www.twitvid.com/V3AVI thanks to Fantasy FB Pundit. What bothers me is i don’t see that “inhuman” speed anymore, he runs like he knows he’s going to get caught too. Back in 09 the guy shocked me with his top gear.
http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-videos/09000d5d81473ee9/Chris-Johnson-Highlight-WK-11-vs-Texans-2009
How can’t i find it once all last year?…
Not being ready for the start of the 2011 is one thing, but that’s no excuse to not see it once by the end. 45% of his 2011 rushing came in 3 games, all vs real pour run stoping teams last season. Either he’s lost a step, or 60mil slowed him down. I’ve got him as my 11th ranked RB, so i’ll never get him on draft day. It will take some much better tape on him this preseason to move him up my board. Just my 2 cents.
Well, that’s the great thing about fantasy football Nerd. Two people can think differently about one player. Maybe I’m hanging on too long with Johnson. I’m like everyone else. Sometimes I’m not quick enough to cut ties with certain players. For me though I think CJ still has enough talent that I’ll give him one more year before I jump ship. I think he has one more good season left in those legs. But you are right, he did lose some speed last year. I actually commented on that a couple of times in my column. Maybe he’s all done. We’ll see this year. Thanks as always for the different viewpoint.
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Hey Nerd, I am going to give CJ a pass and say he came in out of football shape and “got paid” so he just kind of mailed it in a bit last season. Plus, I think he could see that the Titans were not really going to contend…so everything pretty much lined up for him to tank a little last year.Hey if I had logged that many carries in the first few years of my career and just signed a fat contract, I might have set it cruise control on 70 and coasted a bit too. I think CJ will play with some urgency this year and that will make a big difference. I will bet on him having a bounce back season.
70?…..
Try 45, in the passing lane, Monday morning everyones late for work downtown Manhattan. If he let a mouth full of gold weigh him down, whys he care this year? So he either mailed it in, ALL YEAR long, or he just never found his speed once he got into shape because its umm, gone? Either way, unacceptable, and thus why I’ve revoked his privileges to drive my team into the ground. I’d be interested to know how long guys who just have sick speed for their time, hold onto it. Fastest on the track seems like the hardest skill to hold onto, and 2K’s never powered anyone, he was all moves and top gear. I don’t think anyone, let alone a small back, can ‘mail it in’ when a DB is chasing them down. You either got the speed and you’re going to show it off, or you don’t. I just do not see it all of 011 and i’m too troubled by that, since it’s all he ever had, to draft him.
Nerd, that’s good observation and analysis on CJ. A lot of his points during his monster 09′ season came from 50+ yd long rushing and rec TD’s. If you take the breakaway speed from his game, he’s just another RB in my opinion. At this point, I’ll look to use my 1st rd pick and heavy auction money elsewhere. Thanks.
Uh, he missed training camp, had crappy blocking all season and still gained over 1000 and had a 4 yd/tote avg. I would say that is more 70 mph than 45, but I guess it doesn’t matter as he won’t be “driving” your team/car thing into the ground. Sounds like something personal issue with Johnson with the gold teeth comment etc. so I will just take it that you disagree.
I think that it’s a normal reaction to coast/mail it in/”drive your team into the ground” once a player gets paid. It happens plenty in the league. You don’t think it’s possible? You think CJ is done?
Don’t agree with the observation and “analysis”. Lots of backs have speed. There are a lot of small backs with speed. CJ had incredible speed AND his durability(see avoid physical punishment) is what is remarkable. So what if he doesn’t “power” through anyone? That mentality is guaranteed to shorten your career. I guess we will see what happens during the regular season, but if CJ drops off, I think it is a lack of motivation rather than an erosion of his skills, at this point in his career.
I never said CJ should look to be a power back Irish, he’s most assuredly not one. I was pointing out the very fact that he isn’t one, coupled with never once showing the speed last year he showed us when he was worth a 1st or 2nd, makes him totally not worth either of those picks this year IMO. I think he’s actually worth a 3rd, but obviously he won’t be there then. Who gives a flying poop if he missed camp last year, that was a hypothesis back around week 5 last year, a lame excuse at this point. Its pretty obvious if you watch the tape he doesn’t have that speed any longer. Not saying he’s still not fast, but i’m not surprised at all crazy elite speed like he had might fade fast, it’s always the first skill to go. He’s not running less then his full capability in those clips, which btw are his best runs of 2011, sad. He’s not holding back at those moments someones chasing him. The gold teeth crack was just that, i think gold is known to be a pretty heavy metal, it can’t help him go faster that’s for sure