I finish up my ADP breakdowns with a look at wide receivers. Some people have contacted me about using information from MyFantasyLeague.com. They suggested I use Fantasy Football Calculator instead. I prefer Fantasy Football Calculator too. The reason I decided to use the ADPs from My Fantasy League is because they’re different from sites like FFC and I thought it would generate some discussion. I just wanted to clarify that point. Now here’s a look at the ADP of receivers and my thoughts on some guys who are being undervalued and overvalued.
Based on a 12-team league flex format with 1 point awarded per reception
Round 1
Calvin Johnson, Lions (4)
Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals (12)
Round 2
A.J. Green, Bengals (17)
Hakeem Nicks, Giants (19)
Andre Johnson, Texans (22)
Wes Welker, Patriots (24)
Round 3
Julio Jones, Falcons (25)
Roddy White, Falcons (26)
Greg Jennings, Packers (27)
Victor Cruz, Giants (29)
Brandon Marshall, Bears (32)
Dez Bryant, Cowboys (33)
Mike Wallace, Steelers (34)
Round 4
Jordy Nelson, Packers (37)
Percy Harvin, Vikings (38)
Kenny Britt, Titans (39)
Demaryius Thomas, Broncos (44)
Miles Austin, Cowboys (46)
Vincent Jackson, Bucs (47)
Jeremy Maclin, Eagles (48)
Round 5
Dwayne Bowe, Chiefs (49)
Marques Colston, Saints (50)
Steve Smith, Panthers (53)
Antonio Brown, Steelers (55)
Steve Johnson, Bills (56)
Round 6
DeSean Jackson, Eagles (63)
Brandon Lloyd, Patriots (69)
Round 7
Torrey Smith, Ravens (73)
Eric Decker, Broncos (76)
Justin Blackmon, Jaguars (82)
Denarius Moore, Raiders (83)
Round 8
Pierre Garcon, Redskins (89)
Reggie Wayne, Colts (91)
Michael Crabtree, 49ers (96)
Round 9
Robert Meachem, Chargers (101)
Sidney Rice, Seahawks (102)
Greg Little, Browns (106)
Mike Williams, Bucs (107)
Round 10
Santonio Holmes, Jets (110)
Michael Floyd, Cardinals (112)
Titus Young, Lions (116)
Round 11
Darrius Heyward-Bey, Raiders (125)
Round 12
Anquan Boldin, Ravens (133)
Brian Quick, Rams (138)
Malcom Floyd, Chargers (139)
Kendall Wright, Titans (140)
Lance Moore, Saints (141)
Laurent Robinson, Jaguars (142)
Round 13
Alshon Jeffery, Bears (148)
Austin Collie, Colts (150)
Randall Cobb, Packers (151)
Mario Manningham, 49ers (152)
Vincent Brown, Chargers (153)
Stephen Hill, Jets (154)
Round 14
Reuben Randle, Giants (156)
Jonathan Baldwin, Chiefs (161)
Randy Moss, 49ers (164)
Leonard Hankerson (165)
Round 15
Nate Washington, Titans (168)
Doug Baldwin, Seahawks (170)
Mohamed Sanu, Bengals (171)
Danny Amendola, Rams (173)
Undervalued
Decker - If you’re new to the site I’ve already talked a lot about Decker, so I don’t want to keep repeating myself. I mean I have the guy ranked as my No. 13 fantasy receiver and I predict he’ll catch over 80 balls, so I obviously think Decker is a bargain in Round 7. I do want to make one point though.
A report came out recently that Peyton Manning hasn’t been as accurate on his deep throws as he was before the neck injury. Now I take all reports with a grain of salt this time of year and so should you. These reports are basically the opinion of one guy sitting under a tent. I’m not saying it’s wrong or right but the person sitting right next to him could see something totally different. Let’s say for a second though that Manning has lost some accuracy on his deeper throws. That only adds to Decker’s value in my opinion. I see Decker running more of the drag and out routes in Manning’s offense.
I know this is an obvious statement but those six and seven yard catches equal fantasy points in PPR leagues. Either way I expect Decker to be a leading candidate as the guy who most outplayed his draft position at the end of the season.
Lance Moore - Am I the only person on the planet who likes this guy? You know, people are so busy talking about Nick Toon and Adrian Arrington as possible sleepers I think they forget Moore is still on the team. Listen, I’m not saying Moore is going to be a stud but when healthy he does have a role in the Saints offense and that role should only increase with Robert Meachem gone. The biggest negative with Moore is that he’s a possession receiver, so he’ll lose some catches to Darren Sproles. Still, I’ll take a shot on a veteran Saints receiver to be my WR5 in Round 12. I don’t know, maybe I’m too high on Moore. I just like to find productive veterans later on in the draft and Moore fits that profile for me.
Cobb - I was surprised to see that some people downgraded Cobb once Donald Driver was re-signed. I’m not one of those people. Didn’t we all expect the Packers to re-sign Driver? I think Green Bay brought Driver back for veteran insurance and to help mentor the younger receivers. You’ll never hear anyone say a bad thing about Driver. He’s supposedly one of the nicest, hardest-working guys in the NFL and a player like that still has value later on in his career. However, when you look at what Cobb does well and what Driver can do at this point, they aren’t even in the same hemisphere.
Cobb is a lightning quick slot receiver, whereas Driver will be counted on more if the Packers suffer some injuries at receiver. Anyone who watched Driver play last year saw a receiver that struggles to get open at this stage in his career. I believe the Green Bay coaching staff has big plans for Cobb and he’s a perfect complement to Greg Jennings and Jordy Nelson because of the things he can do as an inside receiver.
The two players who remind me the most of Wes Welker are Cobb and Ryan Broyles. Now I know both guys are black and it’s a crime to compare a black receiver to Welker but I only look at style of play. When I watch Cobb and Broyles I see potentially two of the best slot receivers in the NFL over the next few years. I’m really high on Cobb both for this season and beyond.
Doug Baldwin - For an undrafted free agent who emerged to catch 51 balls for 788 yards and 4 scores in his first NFL season, Baldwin isn’t getting much love from fantasy owners right now. Baldwin isn’t even being drafted in a lot of leagues, which is a little surprising to me. Now I’ve always been a huge Golden Tate fan and I’m giving him one last year to produce before I jump ship but he’s done very little so far in his NFL career. Baldwin put up solid numbers last year with miserable quarterback play. Granted, if Tarvaris Jackson is named the starter that miserable quarterback play will continue but I still like Baldwin as a late-round selection. Not all of your picks in Round 15 are going to pan out but Baldwin has a chance to be a pleasant surprise. He showed me enough last year where I think Baldwin is being a little undervalued early in the summer.
Overvalued
Jennings - I have Jennings ranked lower than most (12) and that still may be a little high. I had Jennings last year and he’s a good fantasy receiver but I think we’re drafting him based on his reputation and what he did three years ago. Still, it’s hard to drop a receiver too far that’s scored 21 times over the last two years and has Aaron Rodgers throwing to him. My gut tells me Jordy Nelson is the best fantasy receiver in Green Bay though and I always go with my gut. I like Jennings, he certainly has a lot of fantasy value, but I don’t believe he should be selected in the Top 30.
Vincent Jackson - I can’t condone taking Jackson in the Top 50 picks personally. I think he’s a hit or miss guy and I don’t love those kinds of receivers. If you look at last year most of Jackson’s production came in four games. Now you put him in a run-oriented offense with a quarterback that may or may not be the real deal and I think he’s being overvalued based on his name. It’s not that I wouldn’t want Jackson on my fantasy team it’s just I wouldn’t take him that high with some of the other guys still on the board. Basically, Jackson has been too inconsistent throughout his career for my liking and I don’t see that changing this season with the Bucs.
Blackmon - There’s a chance Blackmon will burst onto the scene and be the NFL Rookie of the Year but let’s be honest, he’s not off to a very good start. Soon after being drafted Blackmon learned his offense is in such shambles that Chad Henne could actually be the Jaguars starting quarterback this year. Then Blackmon gets arrested for a DUI and declares that he’s done drinking “for now.”
Boy, that makes me feel good. What the hell does that mean? I used to wake up on my kitchen floor after a night of snorting Jagermeister up my nose and say “I’m done drinking for now.” Then five hours later I was funneling Vodka. Sorry if Blackmon’s statement doesn’t give me a warm fuzzy feeling inside or instill much confidence that he’s done drinking. Again, maybe he doesn’t touch another drop of alcohol and blows up as a rookie but the facts are the facts. And the fact is Blackmon’s NFL career has gotten off to a rocky start.
To once again quote the infamous Dean Wormer from Animal House, “Fat, drunk and stupid is no way to go through life son.” Sorry but I’ll pass on the Jags receiver in Round 7 who’s done drinking “for now.”
Overall Thoughts
As expected after we saw the running backs going later than anticipated at My Fantasy League, the receivers went off the board early and often. On average 20 receivers are getting drafted in the first four rounds, showing a shift in philosophy based on early drafts at My Fantasy League.
Even with receivers going early there’s still a lot of depth on the board, which speaks to the talent available at the position. The people at My Fantasy League are with me on A.J. Green, as he’s going early in Round 2 on average. Some idiot blogger at ESPN had the sack to say Green is “quietly” primed for a “breakout” season. I mean seriously, where do they find these bozos? I’m pretty sure Green has already broken out and I like getting him in the second round.
I don’t think it’s a surprise to anyone that Julio Jones is picking up steam. The ultra talented Jones is going in the Top 25 at My Fantasy League. What may be surprising though is Jones is going one spot ahead of teammate Roddy White. We can argue all day long about those two but if you end up with either of them on your fantasy team, you’ll likely be very happy.
The more I look at ADP and mock drafts the more I’m starting to really like Jordy Nelson in the Round 4 area. As I stated above I think if Nelson isn’t the Packers No. 1 receiver at this point he’s at least 1B in Green Bay. While other receivers have been moving past Nelson this summer his ADP has pretty much stayed the same. I’m starting to like the looks of Nelson on my fantasy team more and more as we get closer to August.
Even at the end of the draft guys like Nate Washington, Doug Baldwin and Danny Amendola have some value. Whether you hit receiver early or wait a few rounds there’s enough quality depth at the position that fantasy owners have plenty of options. Receiver, more than any other position, comes down to personal preference and how owners value a particular player. Some guys will crap out but overall there’s a plethora of talented receivers to be had throughout the draft.
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One guy I’m not seeing on the list is Eddie Royal. When he signed with the Chargers, I kind of thought he could be a late round steal in a ppr league. Now some reports coming out that Norv is impressed, I figured he might not be as late as I thought. Curious to hear your thoughts on him.
I think he’s worth a shot in the later rounds. I expect one of the receivers in San Diego to surprise. I kind of think it will be Vincent Brown but in a PPR format Royal is worth a shot. Let’s be honest, Malcom Floyd will pull his groin or hamstring by Week 3, so there will be opportunities for another receiver to step up and contribute.
PSG - What are your thoughts on Austin going a full round later than Dez? Look at Austin’s first 2 games last year (including his monster week 2 against SFO, arguably the best DEF in the league) and then realize he probably never got right again all season with regards to his hamstring injuries. He recently came out and said that he showed up at camp last season out of shape and not really ready to play. No excuses for that but just another example on how the lockout really affected many teams and individual players. Could Austin be a potential huge bargain at pick 46 (possible top 5 WR?) or will Dez surpass him as the top WR in Dallas and player to draft first? When healthy, Austin seems to be Romo’s preferred target.
It’s funny you mentioned him because I was just thinking the same thing the other day. I do expect Bryant to take the next step but Austin is similar to Jordy Nelson. I mentioned how other receivers have past Nelson this summer and the same thing is true for Austin. Now you look where Austin is going compared to some other guys and he’s becoming intriguing. Even if Dez has a huge year Austin will always get enough balls thrown his way to help fantasy owners. I would still take Bryant first but Austin probably has more value at this point.
As someone that loved Collie and called out his 2010 break-out season, what are your thoughts on him for this season? Many experts say that Luck is the most pro-ready rookie QB of the last decade. The team will need to pass a lot to stay in games and there’s not much competition at WR in IND aside from the past his prime Wayne. Seems like great late rd WR with upside at pick #150.
I do think Collie could have a bit of a rebound year. I’m still looking at that Colts situation and trying to come up with a strong opinion either way. I do think they’ll have to throw the ball a lot though and my guess is Luck will be throwing a lot of short passes, which should benefit Collie. I would put him in that veteran late-round selection category with guys like Lance Moore and Nate Washington that are certainly worth a spot on your roster.
“Now I know both guys are black and it’s a crime to compare a black receiver to Welker.” LOL!
Not to much on Marshall I think he’s going to be #1WR this year, With Megatron on Madden, Fitz no QB and Andre always hurt. He’s got a better shot then anyone else you have ranked before him!
I have Marshall ranked as my No. 3 fantasy receiver. These aren’t my rankings Sam, they are where guys are getting drafted on average. I have Marshall ranked higher than probably anyone else. I love him this year too. Check out my WR rankings. This is just average draft position from one web site.
Based on these early adps, I’m liking the value of Austin, Maclin, Antonio Brown, and Denarius Moore, and I have a feeling that I’ll be owning some combination of those guys on a bunch of teams this year. Of the late-round receivers, I agree with you on Cobb and Vincent Brown looks like an interesting sleeper to me as well. Keep up the good work - love the blog.
Thanks Mark. I too like Vincent Brown. I think there’s a good chance he emerges in San Diego this year. I appreciate the feedback.
I think Blackmon is so depressed after being drafted by the Jags he has been on a non-stop drinking binge. Just by sheer coincidence, he was driving his car while on one of these binges. I think he is the victim here.
I can’t really argue with that logic. I suppose I would be drinking all the time if I got drafted by that team too.
What are your thoughts on Santana Moss? He’s been receiving a lot of praise from the media and coaches lately. Could this be a bounce back year for him? I’m looking at guys like Moss and possibly Reggie Wayne to be this year’s Steve Smith. What are your thoughts?
I don’t think Moss is the player he once was because the explosiveness just isn’t there anymore. Now if he embraces his new role as a slot receiver I think he can help owners in a PPR league. I would just look for more shorter receptions and fewer big plays out of Moss at this point in his career, especially with all the speed the other receivers bring to the table. I do like Wayne to put up respectable fantasy numbers this season.
I saw a recent blurb on Rotoworld about “someone in the know” expecting Garcon to have a huge season in the Mike/Kyle Shanahan offense. It’s actually pretty interesting because WR have had great success over the years under both Shanahans. At his current ADP/price, I think Garcon is a great guy to grab as your 3rd or 4th WR. He’s had his issues with concentration, drops, and consistency but he’s an explosive WR with great YAC ability and the potential and opportunity is there for a big break-out.