I broke down Average Draft Position (ADP) a couple of weeks ago and I’ll be looking at it again soon because I feel it’s the most important thing for fantasy owners to know heading into drafts. The ADP of rookies is particularly important because it offers the most movement from week-to-week. Whether it’s because some blowhard like me keeps pumping up Ronnie Hillman or a player looks good in preseason, where rookies get drafted can change quickly. Here’s a look at where this year’s rookies are currently being selected on average in re-draft leagues.
Based on a 12-team PPR league flex format
Round 2
Trent Richardson, RB Browns (15)
Round 4
Doug Martin, RB Bucs (38)
Round 8
David Wilson, RB Giants (91)
Robert Griffin III, QB Redskins (93)
Justin Blackmon, WR Jaguars (94)
Round 10
Coby Fleener, TE Colts (113)
Isaiah Pead, RB Rams (114)
Andrew Luck, QB Colts (116)
Michael Floyd, WR Cardinals (118)
Round 11
Ronnie Hillman, RB Broncos (122)
Round 12
Brian Quick, WR Rams (142)
Round 13
LaMichael James, RB 49ers (146)
Lamar Miller, RB Dolphins (148)
Rueben Randle, WR Giants (152)
Robert Turbin, RB Seahawks (154)
Round 14
Bernard Pierce, RB Ravens (157)
Alshon Jeffery, WR Bears (162)
Stephen Hill, WR Jets (164)
Round 15
Mohammed Sanu, WR Bengals (170)
Undervalued
Hillman-We have to figure this blog alone helped push up Hillman’s ADP at least one round. I think Round 11 is too low for Hillman in comparison to where some other rookie backs are being drafted. I don’t really see a lot standing in Hillman’s way other than an aging Willis McGahee. Knowshon Moreno isn’t even going to make the Broncos final roster with McGahee, Hillman and Lance Ball ahead of him.
David Wilson is going in Round 8 and Isaiah Pead in Round 10. Tell me why those two have more fantasy value than Hillman again? If anything, they have to fight for touches with really good players, where Hillman just has McGahee to deal with. Doug Martin going seven rounds ahead of Hillman is nuts in my opinion. With LeGarrette Blount still around it’s not like Martin has Trent Richardson’s easy path to getting all the carries. I mean how much better is McGahee than Blount, if he’s even better at all?
I keep saying Hillman is going to be a stud and the more I look at the situation in Denver, the more I think it will happen in 2012. If you can get him in Round 11 that’s stealing. I’ll look to take Hillman in the eighth round area personally. Then again, after people see him in preseason, I’ll probably have to draft him even earlier.
Quick - Quick is still a little raw but to get a guy with his skill level that’s a good bet to start in Round 12 isn’t a bad deal for fantasy owners. I know it seems I like a lot of rookies because of my addiction to college football but in reality I’m a stickler when it comes to drafting them. I’ll take someone like Hillman a little higher than most because I really like him but in general I don’t overvalue rookies. I think that happens far too often in fantasy football. However, I like Round 12 to take a shot on a rookie with upside and that’s Quick. I believe he has more value in dynasty leagues but if there aren’t a lot of options left on the board at receiver later in the draft, Quick is an intriguing pick. Keep an eye on him in training camp and during the preseason. If he looks good, Quick’s ADP of Round 12 won’t last long.
Overvalued
Martin - This is starting to remind me of last year’s Mark Ingram/Daniel Thomas over-drafting debacle all over again. It’s one thing to draft a rookie in Round 8 but when owners start falling in love with these guys and overvalue them, that’s when they get in trouble. I understand Martin is being tabbed as the starter but Blount didn’t die. He’s still around to get carries, especially later on in games when backs rack up those valuable garbage fantasy points.
Let me give you a few names of players Martin is currently being drafted over on average: Julio Jones, Mike Wallace, Jordy Nelson, Reggie Bush, Steve Smith, Marques Colston, Percy Harvin, Mike Vick, Dez Bryant and Aaron Hernandez. You ever hear of any of them? Now that I think about it, Martin may be the most overvalued player in fantasy football right now. Look at that list. If you draft Martin over those guys you’re expecting him to not put up just decent numbers, you’re expecting him to be a stud from day 1. Personally, I think Hillman has just as good a chance to put up the same kind of production.
Again, I like Martin but even if you’re down on Blount, he’s still going to have a big enough role that Martin shouldn’t be getting selected over a potential beast like Julio Jones. That’s just insanity. It’s time to come back to earth a little and realize Martin is a rookie running back that may start but he isn’t close to being guaranteed all the touches in the Bucs backfield. At least that’s how I see it. Martin looks like a sixth round running back going in Round 4 to me. The only rookie running back that warrants being drafted in the first few rounds is Trent Richardson.
Fleener - Fleener is a good prospect but I don’t see him being in that elite tight end class. Obviously, being teamed with his college quarterback Andrew Luck is a big advantage for Fleener. People are getting a little ahead of themselves with him though. He’s getting drafted two rounds earlier than Jermaine Gresham, Brent Celek and Jared Cook on average and that’s craziness in my opinion. You can count on one hand the number of rookie tight ends that have made a big fantasy splash. Seriously, how many times have you started a rookie tight end over the years and been happy with his production? Twice? Three times at the most? Just for the record guys like Jimmy Graham, Vernon Davis, Antonio Gates, Jason Witten and Jermichael Finley weren’t close to being reliable fantasy tight ends as rookies. I like Fleener as a No. 2 tight end this season but he’s being drafted in Round 10 as a starter. I would rather have five or six players currently being selected after Fleener to be my starting tight end.
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I think you’re hitting on something with that Martin rant, that’s an insane 4th round selection. It’s funny to see those anomalies, but then again maybe the guy who took him went QB, TE, and or WR early and felt they had to. Not that Martin over Bush makes any damn sense to me though. I think most believe they favor him over Blount though. Probably due to all his tweets screaming TB better not draft an RB, ha. And lets face it,.. it only takes one guy to boost someones value, and we know 1 in 12 got burned by Blount last year. Some just wanna hit on that rook too. It makes no sense though. I don’t see why TB is going to have more rushing yards this season then MIA. I love Bush!!
I agree. If you are in dire need of a RB in Round 4 I guess it’s not an awful pick but to pass up on some of those names for a rookie RB is quite a gamble. I’m with you on Bush. The more I think about him the more I like him. Considering he somehow ends up on my fantasy team every year, I guess that’s not a big surprise.
I also think a lot draft to fill a position in the mid rounds, not necessarily do most look at talent across all positions. I know i’ve done it at times when the draft didn’t go how i expected and i felt i really needed to get a QB or something. More this year then ever though, i think i wanna be ready to dig myself a whole in early rounds at either RB or WR, that i can trade or wire my way out of by the playoffs. Don’t pass on top talent this year is my mantra going into the draft. I’m trying to figure out if picking early or late this year (hate the middle), would be better to acquire elite talent at QB and TE in rounds 1 & 2,.. i’m leaning toward late, but if i could also do it form the 2 hole id have a quick rd 3 pick too.
I draft a little differently. If I’m in Round 4 and Julio Jones is on the board, I’ll likely take him. I have him ranked too high to pass on and reach for a RB I don’t love. I try to take as many of the best players as possible. And remember this is averaging over 1,000 drafts, so it’s not just a couple of people taking Martin that high. As of right now, it’s pretty much the norm. I just hate to reach. You may think you filled a hole at the time but overall I think it gets owners into trouble down the road. That’s just my draft thinking though.
I want to believe in Hillman like you do in case I miss out on a stud backup RB or find myself with no good WRs to put in the flex spot, the problem I have with Hillman is one: Peyton Manning. Let’s be honest, he will be running that offense much like he did with the Colts, the OC was around for Peyton to have someone to shout at or someone to talk with while the defense played. And he never really involved his RBs in more than blocking or tossing passes at them. Sure, Addai and Brown and those guys were never awesome, but unless Manning is really really concerned about his neck I don’t see him giving that many touches to Hillman, I would think they are just going to wear down and get their money’s worth out of McGahee and bring in Hillman for a complementary role.
But his prospect is much better than Martin for sure, Blount is going to fight him for the main role whereas Moreno has been injured out of the NFL for all we know.
I disagree. Joseph Addai was the most average RB to ever play in the NFL and he did enough to help fantasy owners. The thing about Manning’s offense is the running backs don’t get as many touches but they usually maximize the touches they do get. Remember, we’re talking about catching passes too. I mean look at some of those guys that produced at RB in that offense when Addai was hurt. They were nobodies. The problem is Addai is just an average football player and always has been. He just played in the perfect offense where any decent back can make a living. So I’m actually on the opposite end. I think any RB with a pulse can produce with Manning at quarterback and in my eyes Hillman has more physical ability than Addai ever hoped to have. Again, this is just my opinion. We’ll see how it plays out. And yes, I get the irony that the only RB to really suck with Manning was Donald Brown, who I also loved. Humor is never lost on me.
Whenever I saw Donald Brown play I always thought “here comes the big play, here he will break off a tackle and run like Emmith Smith downfield for a score…or trip and fall down two yards later, that works too”. Same happened with Moreno actually, loved him in the preseason and the first two games of the season, then saw him be more frail than Reggie Bush.
I just think that if Eric Decker breaks out as expected and Demarius keeps on that track Peyton will have more targets to spread the ball around and not give that much love to Hillman; but who knows, maybe John Fox will have a say in the offense and involve his RBs.
And yes, Addai is pretty awful, if you could break records just running straight ahead without even trying to shed tacklers he’d be a first ballot HoFer
Again, I’m not arguing that Hilman is going to get 20 carries a game. I’m saying he can maximize the ones he does get. That’s the key when playing with Manning. Christ, Mike Hart had fantasy value for a few weeks in Indianapolis. You say Colt RB didn’t have a lot of value. My argument is they had so much value that Jarvaris James was on some fantasy rosters. It’s just not the traditional 20 carries a game value. I’m not saying at all that the Broncos are going to be some kind of running team. That will never happen. In my opinion, Hillman is the perfect player for what they do on offense though.
Also, I’m saying to draft Hillman in Round 8 or 9. My argument against Martin going so high is it’s hard to depend on a rookie back to put up the kind of numbers his average draft position warrants. If you get Hillman in Round 8 or 9 and he becomes your flex player, that’s stilll a good deal. If you draft Martin in Round 4, you are expecting more than just a decent flex player.
I think you’re spot on, RB’s who play with the most elite QB’s can have a special kind of production, and it scares a lot of folks off when there looking for an RB to carry the load. I think Sproles like, the maximization of each run is a lot easier, a stud passer can actually make RB’s hard to defend again. Depending on the backs skill set i can like there situation more then some guys who i know, (and every defense knows) is going to get it handed to them 20 times this Sunday. I think less used is more often starting to mean more reliable production in this pass first NFL. It’s hard for a DEF to key on a Sproles who ran only 7X a game last year on average, yet outscored all but four running backs in PPR format. That being said though i still cringe when i think of a rookie RB covering Manning from a nock in the neck, and i think Hillman better be as good of a blocker as Willis or he’ll be this years Ridley sitting on the bench with all the talent in the world.
Blocking will be key but from what I’m hearing they got him especially to play on passing downs, so the Broncos must think he’s already a decent enough blocker coming out of college to pick things up quickly. Ridley played in LSU’s offense. They throw the ball 10 times a year. Same thing with Roy Helu. Rookies are tough. You just project and hope for the best. That’s why I don’t like to draft them before round 8.
Oops, i meant Hillman better be able to block as good as Willis or he’ll be LAST years Ridley. Talented but not getting the touches in favor of the vet.
If he sucks at blocking he’ll never see the field. Even I will admit that much.