Now that I finished up my early look at Average Draft Position (ADP) I thought it would be a good time to crank out a new 3-round fantasy mock draft. My first couple of mocks went purely based on my position rankings. In this mock I use ADP more as a guide, with my rankings coming in when players are being selected in the same area. I’ll be updating my re-draft position rankings throughout the week but first, here’s my latest 3-round fantasy mock draft.
Based on a 12-team league flex format with 1 point awarded per reception
Round 1
1. Arian Foster, RB Texans
When you add in touches, touchdowns, receptions and overall skill level, Foster would be my top overall pick.
2. LeSean McCoy, RB Eagles
The Eagles lost starting LT Jason Peters for the season but with his ability as a receiver, McCoy is still worthy of a Top 3 pick.
3. Ray Rice, RB Ravens
Rice is always good to fantasy owners but this could be his best season yet. I can’t argue against Rice being the first player off the board.
4. Calvin Johnson, WR Lions
The most dominant player in the NFL right now. Megatron could break some single-season receiving records in 2012.
5. Maurice Jones-Drew, RB Jaguars
MJD showed last year what he can with absolutely no passing game to support him. The guy is not only productive but he’s tough. My gut tells me MJD may end up being the top running back in fantasy football this year but the uncertainty surrounding Blaine Gabbert pushes him down to the fifth pick.
6. Aaron Rodgers, QB Packers
I used to say Peyton Manning was the safest pick in all of fantasy football. That honor now goes to Rodgers. In reality, the only thing that can stop Rodgers from putting up huge numbers is an injury.
7. Chris Johnson, RB Titans
I’m expecting a big bounce-back year out of Johnson. I don’t think he was ready to play football at all in 2011.
8. Ryan Mathews, RB Chargers
Mathews has the talent and versatility to be the top scoring running back in fantasy football. If he plays 16 games, Mathews will be a Top 5 fantasy back.
9. Darren McFadden, RB Raiders
When healthy last year McFadden was the best back in the NFL. Like Mathews, if McFadden ever stays on the field for 16 games he’ll put up scary numbers.
10. Tom Brady, QB Patriots
If Rodgers is the safest pick, Brady isn’t far behind. When you look at all the great quarterbacks throughout the years, I would argue Brady has done the most with the least. Despite his ridiculous haircut, expect another huge season out of Brady.
11. Larry Fitzgerald, WR Cardinals
Fitzgerald has caught 170 passes over the last two seasons despite playing with below average quarterbacks. If Kevin Kolb can improve, Fitz will catch over 100 balls.
12. Rob Gonkowski, TE Patriots
If you like touchdowns, Gronkowski is your guy. Gronk has scored 27 times in his first two seasons. That’s a scary number for a receiver, never mind a tight end.
Round 2
13. Marshawn Lynch, RB Seahawks
I’m one of the people not down on Lynch for this year. I actually think he’s being a bit undervalued. I would love to get him at the turn to be my No. 1 running back.
14. Drew Brees, QB Saints
There’s a lot of uncertainty surrounding the Saints this year but Brees and the passing should keep rolling despite all the problems.
15. Adrian Peterson, RB Vikings
As expected, Peterson’s ADP is starting to go up. I love the guy but in a PPR league I wouldn’t take him this high. He’s coming off a knee injury and Toby Gerhart will see a lot of time on third downs to teal receptions.
16. Trent Richardson, RB Browns
Richardson is going higher in some drafts but early Round 2 seems like a perfect landing spot for the talented rookie. Not many running backs will touch the ball more in 2012.
17. Matt Forte, RB Bears
A contract dispute and Michael Bush are two reasons to not like Forte. Talent and production are two reasons to like him.
18. DeMarco Murray, RB Cowboys
Murray excites me as a Dallas fan and he should get most of the carries as long as he stays healthy. Don’t let Jerry fool you, even he’s starting to give up on Felix Jones.
19. Andre Johnson, WR Texans
Johnson is one of the most hotly debated players heading into the summer. In my opinion getting him around pick 20 is pretty good value for a receiver with his elite skills.
20. Jimmy Graham, TE Saints
I think with all the talent at the tight end position I would wait a longer to grab one but it’s hard to criticize selecting one of the biggest matchup nightmares in the NFL right now.
21. Roddy White, WR Falcons
Julio Jones is coming but White still led the NFL in targets last season. He’ll be the Falcons No. 1 receiver for at least one more year but I would rather hold out for Jones personally.
22. Cam Newton, QB Panthers
Cam is predictably moving up draft boards. He’s one of the most popular players in the NFL right now. If he continues to improve the numbers Newton puts up will be scary.
23. Jamaal Charles, RB Chiefs
I like Charles but this is a little high for him in my opinion. Charles doesn’t need a lot of touches to produce but I believe his reception numbers will go down with Peyton Hillis in KC. Still, Charles is one of the most electrifying players in the NFL and those guys are never bad to own.
24. Steven Jackson, RB Rams
Pretty good value with Jackson at the end of Round 2. Isaiah Pead will take some of the pressure off Jackson but the big guy is still the primary option in the Rams backfield for at least one more year.
Round 3
25. Hakeem Nicks, WR Giants
This isn’t a bad spot to grab a receiver with Nicks’ skills. Last year he was going in early Round 2. Victor Cruz will take away some of his looks but the Giants should throw enough for both players to be big-time fantasy receivers.
26. Darren Sproles, RB Saints
Sproles caught 86 passes last year and he’s a back on the rise with Mark Ingram having his third knee procedure in three years. Sproles’ ADP could put him in the middle of Round 2 soon with Ingram’s latest setback.
27. Wes Welker, WR Patriots
I think this is too low for Welker in PPR leagues but it’s close to where he’s being selected on average. I mean, the guy catches 100 balls a year. It’s pretty much like clockwork. I think he should go in Round 2.
28. Ahmad Bradshaw, RB Giants
One of the most underrated players in fantasy football. Rookie David Wilson will get some touches for sure but Bradshaw is entrenched as the No. 1 back on a very good offense.
29. Brandon Marshall, WR Bears
Marshall is another receiver I would take earlier. His off-the-field shenanigans could be a problem over the long-term but for just the 2012 season, this is too low for Marshall. He’s going to have a big year.
30. Matthew Stafford, QB Lions
I think Stafford is going to lead the NFL in passing yards and he has a plethora of talented targets at his disposal. When you look at the quarterbacks going higher than him, this is pretty good value for Stafford. He’s clearly established himself as an elite fantasy quarterback.
31. A.J. Green, WR Bengals
This third round area has a lot of receivers I would gladly take a round higher. Welker, Marshall and Green are three of my top rated receivers and if you can get one of them in Round 3, I think you’ll be very happy.
32. Fred Jackson, RB Bills
C.J. Spiller is a future Top 5 fantasy back in my opinion and he’ll no doubt have a bigger role in the Bills offense this season. However, I see Jackson holding him off for one more year. When healthy over the last two seasons Jackson has been a fantasy stud.
33. Greg Jennings, WR Packers
I’m a little down on Jennings this year. I like him but the guy had identical stats as Dez Bryant in 2011. My call is Bryant has better stats than Jennings in 2012.
34. Michael Turner, RB Falcons
No way I would take Turner this high personally but his ADP is 26, so I had to put him in the third round. He has some value but in Round 3 I’ll pass on a running back that’s clearly on the decline.
35. Frank Gore, RB 49ers
Gore is another back that’s starting to slow down but even with all the other options in San Francisco’s backfield, I still like Gore to be the lead dog for one more year. I’m all about Round 4 when it comes to Gore. If you can get him in the fourth round I think that’s a good spot to take Gore.
36. Victor Cruz, WR Giants
I look at Cruz and Antonio Brown the same way. I don’t see either receiver being a one-year wonder. Cruz is going to keep hurting defenses over the middle of the field and he plays with one of the NFL’s best quarterbacks. I don’t see him slowing down much in 2012.
How the first 36 picks break down:
Quarterbacks: 5
Running Backs: 19
Wide Receivers: 10
Tight Ends: 2
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So many good options at QB I am almost certain to wait on QB and draft high at other spots. I want to get a spot in the 9-12 range so bad. I took Ray Rice last year 2nd overall and I was glad I did. I took him because Vonte Leach is a beast at clearing the lanes and providing blocks, just like he did for Arian Foster a couple of years ago.
warning off topic FF thoughts: I was thinking today and was reminded of my old Fantasy Football philosophy I heard somewhere. “Win today and worry about next week next week.” It saved my season instead of me going nuts and trying to trade my star players for guys I thought would perform better down the stretch. After the draft, sometimes your worst enemy is yourself. /random off topic thoughts lol
I’m a huge, huge believer in that philosophy. I play week-to-week. The only problem is for some reason a lot of leagues have little activity when it comes to trades and waiver wire moves. It’s much harder to play that way in those leagues. In active leagues like I play in I can pretty much swing a deal every week. I mean people are already talking about strength of schedule in Weeks 15 and 16. That is an absolute joke. There is no way you should be looking at that stuff before the season starts. Guess what? If you draft Aaron Rodgers and he gets injured in Week 1 you have bigger problems than strength of schedule, which means nothing anyway. I think you can have one eye on the playoffs but you need to play in the moment as well. If you try and predict what will happen a month down the road in the NFL too often, it will get you in trouble.
i feel the qb position is deeper than it has ever been. Of course you have your studs, but i am not willing to offer a 1st, 2nd, or 3rd rd pick on a qb when you can get a Rivers, Manning (Eli&Peyton), or Ryan 2-4 rds later
We have talked a lot about this so far and there are people on both sides of the fence. I love Rivers this year so if you can wait and get him, I think that’s a good move. I feel last season was an aberration for him.
The more I think about it, the more warranted it seems for Gronk to be a 1st rd pick. In non-PPR, the guy was the #2 scoring receiver behind only Calvin and #6 scoring non-QB behind Rice, McCoy, Calvin, MJD, and Arian. Plus, you’re getting him at a position where there is probably the most disparity between the #1 guy and the #5 guy and beyond. Meaning that at QB, Rodgers, Brady, Brees, Newton & Stafford will all be grouped close together and could score within close point proximity of each other. Same at RB with Foster, Rice, McCoy and even MJD. WR is more up in the air but you have Calvin & Fitz and then a bunch of other big talents that should battle it out for the top 5. At TE, you have Gronk, then Graham and then guys like Gates, Finley, Hernandez, Witten, Davis. Gronk has a better chance to outpace all of those guys than the top guys at the other positions in my opinion.
I always hate to pay for a career year but everything about the guy seems legit and the NE offense should be as explosive as ever.
I’ve been saying JT that I probably won’t take Gronk or Graham that high probably because I’m not yet programmed to take a TE that high but I can’t argue with anyone who does. Gronk has 27 touchdowns in two seasons. The guy is unstoppable in the red zone. I had him last year and TE or no TE, he was a fantasy machine.
I know these are just mocks, but if someone in my league took either of the risks that are CJ2K and RUN DMC off the board before the guarantees that are Brady and Fitz, i would make fun of them unmercifully for the next 17 weeks. If i get Brady and Peterson, i destroy Fadden and Richardson every week. I guess they would by default fall into that category of someone waiting on a QB with those first two picks, and i’m still trying to understand that philosophy. After Drafting Brady at 10 i can still get Peterson or Forte in 2, both were rocks and hadn’t missed any playing time till last year. That’s way more valuable to me then the what ifs that are those 2 RB’s. You say you can’t win your league on draft day, but you can lose it. I agree, and i think risking early picks is the fastest way to do that. Last year Matthew Berry might have made a fool of himself saying Vick should be taken #1 overall in all drafts, but in his draft day manifesto there was some good info. Starting with the fact that around 50% of WR’s and RB’s that end up in the top 20 at the end of the year, are drafted outside the top 20 on draft day, if drafted at all. That means on average you only hit on half of your top WR and RB picks. The percentage of TE’s and QB’s that end up high on there lists at the end of the year, who were taken outside where they should have gone, was a lot lower. Outside of Tron, Fitz, and the consensus top 3 RB’s, way too much turnover at RB and WR to take either in the first IMO. We all know none of us are going to hit on every pick this fall, we’re going to need to fill holes. So why take a chance of having a hard hole to fill? WR’s and RB’s bloom all fall on the wire in my league.
You make a lot of good points Nerd and you’re right, every person is going to draft differently. The mocks are basically to tell you where guys are going on average in drafts but like I wrote, I would take a player like A.J. Green a little higher, so I don’t agree with where all the guys are being selected. Also, I try to tell people all the time what you said about not hitting on all of our picks. I’ll make trade offers after the draft and I get “Don’t you like your team?” My answer is I like it but I didn’t get all the guys I wanted. No one does. Plus, a number of those guys going early now will bust either due to injury or another factor. You are 100% right about building your team. That’s the most important thing to do in the draft. You want a deep team that gives you flexibility throughout the season.
Obviously Run DMC could get injured again but he also has a realistic shot to be the #1 overall RB in fantasy - especially now that Bush is gone and he should be getting the goal line carries, which he is good at converting anyway. Same with Ryan Matthews. If healthy, he should be great and could challenge to be the #1 overall RB. Johnson is still only 27 and could definitely bounce back to being the #1 overall RB, which he was 2 seasons ago. I just don’t see this kind of upside 1-3 rounds later with guys like ADP & Charles (both coming back from torn ACL) and SJax, Gore & Turner (reaching the end of the line). Plus, you’ll most likely be able to get Matthews late 1st and McFadden in the 2nd.
Everyone absolutely loves Rodgers, Brees, and Brady but I’m going to go out on a limb here and say that we very well may have just witnessed Rodgers and Brees’ career years. Look up their career stats and tell me which season sticks way out. Absolutely everything worked out right for those guys last year. Granted, the floor for these guys is high and that’s an important factor but if you shave 50-75 points off their fantasy totals from last season (which would put them in line with their career averages) then they are a lot closer in scoring to the other top QB’s. You can argue all day about how great Matthew Berry’s logic was - the bottom line is that he was dead wrong about both players.
At the #10 spot, I’ll take the risk with Matthews and then maybe even take Run DMC at #15. I’m set at RB for awhile and can take WR’s, a QB & TE, and another RB in rds 3-7. Fantasy seasons are not won or lost in the 1st and 2nd rds of the draft. Middle and late rd picks are key and you have to hit on a number of them as well. Plus in season pick-ups seem to be becoming more important every year.
I would take both Mathews and McFadden over any quarterback too. If those two play 16 games would you be shocked if they finished 1-2 in fantasy RB scoring? I don’t think anyone would. It’s hard to predict injuries. The one thing I’ll say is McFadden doesn’t love playing with pain. I noticed that back in college but thought he was just protecting himself for his pro career. He needs to get back in there a little quicker from minor injuries. But talent wise, you can argue McFadden for No. 1 RB in the NFL. When he was healthy last year he couldn’t be stopped. I will be looking at both guys at the end of Round 1.
Exactly, you can’t predict injuries. Who would have thought that AP, Forte, and FJax would all go down with major injuries, ruining what were great fantasy seasons.
The game where McFadden torched the NYJ was unbelievable. His skill set at RB is right up there with the best.
Ok just for the proverbial record, i wouldn’t argue Matthew Berry’s logic about player predictions for 2 seconds, let alone all day. But you can’t argue some statistical trends when they match right up with common sense. Go back and look at your old drafts, and if you hit on more then 50% of your WR/RB picks taken in the top 20 of that position off the board, if more then 50% ended up in the top 20 at the end of year, well you sir are one fine drafter. Personally over my years of drafting i see that’s about right. And i win a lot in my league, a league without a lot of trading at that. So if the math shows we’re hit and miss picking specifically WR’s and RB’s, in part due to the much higher injury rate at the position, how can’t the higher guarantee of Rodgers, Brees, Brady, Stafford, and Cam who the league protects to no end, outweigh the uncertainty of a RUN DMC who’s had 1 single solitary good year in 4 NFL seasons? And now he’s coming off a lisfranc to boot. I really am shocked to see him going in the 1st round. Oh and someone tell me why CJ2K had only 4 respectable games all year with 260+ attempts? He doesn’t make the top 25 in WR/RB scoring, he doesn’t go to me in the1st round, but i like him in the 2nd. I’m even torn if i’d take Matthews till early 2, i know the load there about to dump on him, but i see every Chargers game, and that guy is as soft as run dmc is soft, and fragile. Hell i’d take AJ and Sproles over Fan and CJ. I guess i really don’t like those guys huh? ha..
I normally don’t go QB early, but with the way the league is going no way will this be a down year for passing. I’ve said it before on here. Two broke 400fpts in 2008, four in 09, four more in 2010, and six did it last year, four of which raised the bar on eliteness at the QB position, and broke 500 fpts. For the record, Manning popped the 500 cherry a few times from 2000-08, literally years ahead of the game that guy, but now that everyones catching up, and RB’s and WR’s turn over faster then Ryan Matthews pulls up lame in the 4th quarter, i think it a waste to use the talent anyone reading this in May, should have over there eleven competitors to pick better later and wire the easier filled hole at WR or RB, then to take a 50% shot that i can pick one better position player before i have to concede and pick a QB. Just my 2 cents but give me Brady who now has a real WR outside again, Graham in 2, and Sproles in 3 and i guarantee i’ll fill the holes i dug myself, on purpose, by week 15, and be stacked for the push.
I think a lot has to do what with what kind of league you play in. You mentioned your league doesn’t trade a lot. I can’t play in a league like that because I have to make trades or I’ll die but if I did I would probably go for the best players on the board at any position. See I drafted McFadden last year. After four good games, I traded him. I knew the odds were against him staying healthy all year long. But if you know you likely won’t be able to move players, I think it makes more sense to take the safest picks on the board. In my league I can go bust on two backs but if I’m loaded at receiver I can always make a move down the line to help get out of the hole. If I knew I couldn’t do that, I would try and get Megatron and a Top QB, because those are the best overall players in the NFL in my opinion. That’s why it’s difficult to make blanket statements when it comes to fantasy football. There are a lot of different formats, scoring systems and active/non-active leagues to consider.