I’ve expanded my tight end rankings to the Top 30 now that the draft is over but only one rookie, Coby Fleener, made the cut. Still, there are a lot of players moving up and down as always. Tomorrow I will release my expanded (and time consuming) Top 100 receivers to finish off my post-draft fantasy rankings.
2012 Fantasy Tight End Rankings
(Last updated May 2)
1. Rob Gronkowski, Patriots
2. Jimmy Graham, Saints
3. Jermichael Finley, Packers
4. Antonio Gates, Chargers
5. Aaron Hernandez, Patriots
6. Jason Witten, Cowboys
7. Vernon Davis, 49ers
8. Brandon Pettigrew, Lions
9. Jermaine Gresham, Bengals
10. Fred Davis, Redskins
11. Tony Gonzalez, Falcons
12. Jacob Tamme, Broncos
13. Greg Olsen, Panthers
14. Brent Celek, Eagles
15. Ed Dickson, Ravens
16. Kyle Rudolph, Vikings
17. Jared Cook, Titans
18. Dustin Keller, Jets
19. Owen Daniels, Texans
20. Coby Fleener, Colts
21. Kellen Winslow, Bucs
22. Benjamin Watson, Browns
23. Heath Miller, Steelers
24. Tony Moeaki, Chiefs
25. Lance Kendricks, Rams
26. Anthony Fasano, Dolphins
27. Marcedes Lewis, Jaguars
28. Scott Chandler, Bills
29. Martellus Bennett, Giants
30. Dennis Pitta, Ravens
Going Up
Finley - Last year was one of those seasons where everything went wrong for Finley. He battled nagging injuries and drops. While he caught 55 balls, it wasn’t what fantasy owners were expecting. The more I think about the upcoming season, the more Finley is becoming one of the players I really want on my fantasy team. I think we see a huge bounce-back year from Finley in 2012. He’s now up to No. 3 in my rankings.
Pettigrew - I’ve been hard on Pettigrew so far. I pumped him up last season and thought he would be an elite fantasy tight end. While Pettigrew had a good year, he dropped about five passes a game. Pettigrew doesn’t have the softest hands in the world but the Lions throw the ball so much he can drop one in five still end the year with 80 receptions. He proved that last season. I still like Pettigrew but I would have ranked even higher if he had better hands.
Rudolph - I really liked Rudolph coming out of Notre Dame and I believe a real coaching staff would have gotten him more involved in the offense last year. But considering it took Leslie Frazier and Co. two months to realize they needed to get Percy Harvin on the field, I suppose Rudolph never really had a chance. Rudolph has all kinds of talent, so the only people that can hold him down this year are his idiot coaches.
Fleener - Fleener is a good prospect but I don’t see him being an elite tight end. Obviously, being teamed with his college quarterback, Andrew Luck, is a huge advantage. I actually like Dwayne Allen a little more as a long-term prospect but it’s hard to ignore the built-in chemistry between Fleener and Luck. Fleener runs fast but he doesn’t play that fast. I don’t think he’s going to be a tight end that provides a lot of big plays but he should eat up receptions with Luck throwing him the ball. Expect around 60 catches out of Fleener this season.
Coming Down
Witten - Being a Dallas fan I obviously love Witten. It’s too bad other players on that team don’t have his toughness. Witten is always going to catch his share of passes but his back and legs are starting to fail him a bit. The big plays just aren’t there anymore. If you play in a PPR league Witten is still a solid fantasy tight end. However, if your scoring is based more on yards and touchdowns, I would look at other options at tight end.
Gonzalez - Gonzo is like Steven Jackson. Every year I expect his production to slip and every year he proves me wrong. Still, at some point Gonzalez’s age is going to catch up with him. Now you add Julio Jones catching more balls in his second season and I see Gonzalez being a low-end fantasy starting tight end in 2012. I’m probably wrong though. This guy may end up playing until he’s 50.
Daniels - Last year I drafted Daniels in the seventh round and thought I had myself a steal. However, with the Texans becoming a run-oriented team over the last two years, Daniels is being relied on more for his blocking. Daniels will still have a big game or two but unless you get fantasy points for being a strong run blocker, I would look elsewhere.
Winslow - It’s gotten to the point that if Winslow is your starting fantasy tight end, you need to make a move to get a new tight end. Plus, with Tampa Bay becoming a power running team, Winslow will be in the same boat as Daniels where he’s relied on more to be a blocker than a receiver most weeks.
Rankings are based on standard scoring systems but account for 1 point per reception because that’s the method I prefer.
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For the past 2 years I have drafted Finley in the 4th and 6th round. Every year is projected as THE season for him. First, he goes down with injury on a totally bizarre play. And last year he had one monster game and the rest were ok games but nothing compared to other tight ends. I don’t know whether to trust him again this year or not.
The year Hernandez and Gronk were drafted it was Hernandez getting the scores while Gronk moved the chains, last year it was Hernandez mainly blocking, running and moving the chains while Gronk did everything else outside of actually throwing passes, do you think this year when defenses focus everyone and their grandmas on Gronk we’ll see the rise of Hernandez?
I think it’s logical that Gronk’s numbers go down some. I mean we have assume that every D-Coordinator on the planet is going to try and find ways to slow him down. That doesn’t mean it will work because the guy is a monster. It’s like the year CJ rushed for 2,000 yards. It was a lock his numbers were going to dip some. Here is my thinking: If you are starting a Pats TE on your fantasy team not named Daniel Fells, you will be happy. And I can understand not trusting Finley, especially if you were burned by him in the past. I like to go with my gut and my gut tells me Finley will have a big year. I wouldn’t over-draft him though. Have to see where he’s going in July. I’m the kind of person that can rank a player No. 3 in May but then go the other way and think he’s getting drafted too high.
Are you skipping the WR rankings because it’s near impossible to rank the guys in the 10-25 range??
These rankings look about right. Like Finley, Gates should bounce back too. He’s says he’s 100% healthy and if he makes it thru the offseason OK, he could contend for the TE fantasy scoring lead no doubt.
You were not wrong on your initial assessment of Pettigrew and I’m surprised you moved him back up the rankings. He drops way too many easy passes and the team has plenty of other targets to throw too. No way that I’d take him over Gresham.
Liking Olsen, Tamme, Cook, and Rudolph in the 10-20 range. One or 2 of these guys will blow up.
I’m ranking the receiver last because I’m doing a Top 100 and that takes the most time to finish. My thinking with Pettigrew is I believe I’m letting how I feel about him as an NFL player hurt my objectivity as a fantasy analyst. Even dropping balls he still caught 83 passes last year. In that offense, and with teams trying to stop Megatron, I think he catches 80+ balls again. I have him and Gresham ranked almost even. That comes down to personal preference. I think Gresham is the better player but Pettigrew plays in by far the more explosive passing offense. I like Rudolph a lot. He’s a guy I’ll be looking to draft this year.
Good luck with the WR rankings, now that the Pats seem to be picking up every stray WR they find cheap in the market it’s going to be interesting by the end of training camp to see who stays and who leaves. Maybe even Ochocinco has a good year
I don’t think he is going to make the team. McDaniels likes Gaffney and what he does on underneath routes. I think Ochocinco could be the odd man out. He got old really fast. He simply can’t separate anymore.
You make some good points regarding Pettigrew and, if anything, maybe he works hard this off season and actually improves his hands. In an offense that’s that pass prolific, he’s certainly someone you can’t write off.