Now that the draft is over it’s time to take a look at where the rookies fall in keeper leagues. I used to play in a great keeper league years ago but it disbanded and to be honest, I miss it. I loved the different kind of thinking that goes along with a competitive keeper league, especially once the draft is finished and you start breaking down rookies. For those of you that do play in keeper leagues, here is how I would rank the Top 20 rookies heading into your drafts.
1. Trent Richardson, RB Browns
This is a slam dunk unless you play in a quarterback-heavy scoring league. Not many running backs are in a better situation than Richardson in terms of seeing all of his team’s touches. Let’s put it this way; Montario Hardesty is currently Richardson’s backup and he may not even make the team. Richardson will face some tough defenses in the AFC North but we’re talking about a possible Top 10 back in 2012 and a Top 5 back down the road. This is an easy call.
2. Andrew Luck, QB Colts
Following the draft I was looking over the rosters of NFL teams and when I dissected the Colts, the more I started to like Luck. Indianapolis should have a pretty strong passing game with Reggie Wayne, Austin Collie, Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen in the mix. Luck has everything a team looks for in an NFL quarterback. As long as the Colts provide him a supporting cast, he’ll make fantasy owners happy for many years.
3. Robert Griffin III, QB Redskins
Griffin has a chance to be a fantasy star right away. The Redskins have speed at receiver with Leonard Hankerson, Josh Morgan and Pierre Garcon and Griffin loves airing it out. Griffin is a polished passer and dangerous runner, so I expect him to come in and put up strong fantasy numbers. I actually have Griffin rated a little higher than Luck right now for the upcoming season but both quarterbacks have the skills to be productive NFL starters for a long time.
4. Doug Martin, RB Buccaneers
I like other running backs more than Martin but he landed with a perfect team. Not only are the Bucs going to run the ball a lot, Martin’s receiving skills will help fantasy owners right away. Don’t be surprised if Martin catches 60 balls as a rookie and there’s already talk he could start the season as the Bucs No. 1 tailback over LeGarrette Blount. Martin is a player who is rising up draft boards by the day.
5. Justin Blackmon, WR Jaguars
You can go with either Blackmon or Floyd here. I have them both rated about the same heading into the season. Floyd has the better situation but Blackmon will see more balls coming his way. Blackmon is a stud but Blaine Gabbert remains a big question mark. Here’s the bright side for those of you who draft Blackmon in keeper leagues; If Gabbert is a bust in 2012 the Jaguars will be one of the frontrunners to get Matt Barkley in next year’s draft.
6. Michael Floyd, WR Cardinals
I had Floyd rated as the top receiver in the draft and he couldn’t have landed in a better place for long-term success. Larry Fitzgerald as a mentor? That’s a pretty good deal. I compared Floyd to Fitzgerald coming out of school and now the two will play together. I like Floyd in re-draft leagues but I absolutely love him in keeper leagues. I believe Floyd has the physical tools to become one of the top receivers in the NFL.
7. David Wilson, RB Giants
The Giants got themselves a steal here. I thought Wilson was a Top 20 prospect in this year’s draft and it makes me feel good that Giants General Manager Jerry Reese, agrees. I’ve always thought Ahmad Bradshaw was one of the most underrated players in the NFL. However, the guy’s feet are being held together with duct tape and the Giants don’t like to overuse him. Wilson is a guy that can go 80 yards in a blink of an eye but he was also one of the toughest runners in this year’s draft class. Wilson has value as Bradshaw’s backup this year and he could become a special player for fantasy owners in the future.
8. Isaiah Pead, RB Rams
I loved this pick by the Rams. Pead is a guy I thought could come in and be a change-of-pace back right away and then eventually be a starting running back in the NFL. So what do we have in St. Louis? Pead will be a third-down back at first, while being groomed to take over for Steven Jackson. Pead reminds me a lot of Ray Rice. He may be small in stature but Pead runs a lot bigger than his size. Pead should be high on the wish list of keeper league owners.
9. Ronnie Hillman, RB Broncos
And here’s my boy Hillman. Do you think when Hillman or someone in his family searches his name they come to my blog and are concerned I like him so much it borders on disturbing? I’m not going to stop promoting this guy until I get every fantasy owner on board with me. This kid is a stud. He’ll start off being a change-of-pace guy for the Broncos but I have no doubt in my mind that by the end of the 2013 season Hillman will be Denver’s starting running back. Check out my current running back rankings for more on my borderline-unhealthy backing of Hillman.
10. Brian Quick, WR Rams
I didn’t get tape on Quick but I saw him play a couple of time at Appalachian State and he was an absolute beast. Quick was one of those 1-AA (Yes, I’m still calling it that) players that when you watched him he really stood out. I know someone who covers 1-AA ball and the first time I saw Quick play I sent him an e-mail asking, “Who is this No. 8 for Appalachian State and why isn’t he playing for USC?” He wrote me back that Quick was a late bloomer and NFL scouts were already all over him. Quick is still a little raw but if we’re talking three years down the line, he may end up being the top fantasy receiver in this group. That sounds like a nice keeper league pick to me. I love this kid.
11. A.J. Jenkins, WR 49ers
Jenkins was another guy I really liked in this draft. I had Jenkins rated as a Top 5 receiver and I wasn’t surprised at all when he was selected at the end of Round 1. I think Jenkins could be just as productive as Mario Manningham this season. He’s already a better route runner, although that’s not saying much considering Manningham is one of the worst route runners in the NFL. And don’t worry about Jenkins playing with Alex Smith; he’s used to making tough catches. Jenkins played with some horrible passing quarterbacks at Illinois. Jenkins has all kinds of talent and those who think the 49ers reached for him will see how wrong they are soon enough.
12. Ryan Tannehill, QB Dolphins
This is a good spot for Tannehill. If you’re picking towards the end of Round 1 in your rookie draft and looking for a quarterback of the future, Tannehill is a good choice. Tannehill has upside, I just hope the Dolphins don’t rush him into action. Some guys like Luck are ready to come in and start right away but other young quarterbacks need more time to develop. Tannehill is in the latter category so if you select him, don’t expect much fantasy production for at least a year.
13. Rueben Randle, WR Giants
It’s always a pleasure to watch teams like the Giants draft and the selection of Randle proves my point. How a guy with his talent fell to the end of round 2 I’ll never know but the rest of the league’s stupidity is the Giants gain. I’ve said all along that Randle is a little raw because he played in LSU’s archaic offense but this is the perfect situation for him. With Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz drawing most of the defense’s attention, Randle will see a lot of man coverage as a rookie. I say in three years Randle will be one of the better receivers in the league. It must be nice to be the World Champions and have three young receivers like Nicks, Cruz and Randle. That’s why Jerry Reese is the best GM in the NFL.
14. Kendall Wright, WR Titans
This was an interesting selection because I like Wright but I don’t know how much fantasy value he’s going to have off the bat. There are just too many quality receivers in Tennessee with Kenny Britt, Nate Washington and Damian Williams already ahead of him on the depth chart. I think Wright will provide Tennessee with an instant deep threat but my guess is his biggest fantasy days are still a year or two down the road.
15. LaMichael James, RB 49ers
I love James. I don’t know how the 49ers are going to use him but I do know James will help that offense. I stated many times that James is a much better runner between the tackles than he’s given credit for and Jim Harbaugh has already said he could get goal line carries. That doesn’t surprise me and it would certainly add to James’ fantasy value. James is the perfect candidate for keeper leagues. As a rookie he’ll have more value to his team than fantasy owners but he’s a guy with a bright future.
16. Stephen Hill, WR Jets
The Jets are a good landing spot for Hill. I don’t like the quarterback situation but in terms of guys standing in his way, Hill doesn’t face much competition. I wouldn’t really touch Hill in re-draft leagues because until he becomes a better route runner, the Jets will use him primarily on fly routes. Hill could be used similar to how the Ravens used Torrey Smith last year. As far as future upside goes though, Hill has a lot of it. If you’re looking for a receiver to draft and stash, Hill is your guy.
17. Coby Fleener, TE Colts
I like Fleener but I don’t think he’s an elite prospect. Obviously, being teamed with his college quarterback, Luck, is a huge advantage. I actually like Dwayne Allen a little more as a long-term prospect but it’s hard to ignore the built-in chemistry between Fleener and Luck. Fleener runs fast but he doesn’t play that fast. I don’t think he’s going to be a tight end that provides a lot of big plays but he should eat up receptions with Luck throwing him the ball. When it’s all said and done Fleener will probably put up Brent Celek-type numbers.
18. Brandon Weeden, QB Browns
I’m a Weeden fan. What I’m not a fan of are the Browns receivers. Cleveland had arguably the worst receivers in the NFL before the draft and did very little to address that problem. I understand they got a franchise running back in Richardson and a new quarterback in Weeden. They can’t fix all of their problems in one draft. However, other than Greg Little those receivers are awful and Little ranked second in the NFL in drops last year. Weeden has a lot of potential but the Browns need to give him some more weapons before he becomes a legit fantasy quarterback.
19. Alshon Jeffery, WR Bears
As I’ve been saying since the draft ended it’s hard for me to evaluate Jeffery because I was promoting him for three years. Then he gains weight and shows up to the NFL Combine acting uninterested. I’m a believer if you have 10 players like that and you pass on all of them, you make out more than you lose. Jeffery has elite skills and he could be a Pro Bowl receiver if he stays motivated. On the other hand, he could show up to training camp out of shape and barely step foot on the field. I’ve stated all along that Jeffery is the ultimate boom or bust pick for both NFL teams and fantasy owners. It comes down to if you want to trust him or not.
20. Robert Turbin, RB Seahawks
So many people were busy slamming the Seahawks draft overall that the Turbin pick kind of flew under the radar. Turbin is one of those bowling ball backs that’s impressive every time you see him play. Turbin split time in Utah State’s backfield with Michael Smith but he’s a physical runner with speed. If you look at the Seahawks running back depth chart, there’s a good chance Turbin emerges as Marshawn Lynch’s backup. Not many people are talking about Turbin but he’s a name fantasy owners should know heading into the season.
If you are serious about Ronnie Hillman, he will be available in probably every draft even in the last couple rounds. I just a 12 team mock draft on ESPN. I did well but other teams did better. Some dude got Gronk and Cam Newton. I was able to get lots of guys you are high on in later rounds Decker, Floyd, Hillman etc. Are you going to host a mock draft sometime this summer? If so, I’d love to get in on that just to watch how you and your proteges draft.
Hillman is one of our guys. He won’t even get drafted in most leagues unless he kills it in the preaseason (a distinct possibility) like Stevan Ridley did last year. He’s a late round pick with upside. I’m not saying to take him in Round 8. I love him but Decker is the guy you really want on that team. I will be competing in the Pros vs. Joes Draft Challenge this year. It’s where members of the FFPC take on “pros” like me. I will be in a 12 team division and the draft is 26 rounds. I will post all the results on the blog. You can read more about it here: http://www.fantasymojo.com/mojo/news.do?action=showArticleId&articleid=219. Also, i will be monitoring mock drafts all summer long and providing constant updates on where players are being selected, so you have a good idea when you draft for yourself.