Next week I’ll update my regular fantasy rankings but per request first I’ll take some time to look at how players stack up in dynasty leagues, starting with quarterbacks. There are lot of good young quarterbacks right now for those playing in keeper or dynasty leagues. Here’s how I rank the Top 25.
Also, I used to play in a great dynasty league but it disbanded a couple of years ago. I’m looking to get back in a competitive league but I don’t feel like starting one up myself. I can play in one of those stupid “expert” leagues but I hate those. If you know of a dynasty league looking for an owner to take over as team, e-mail me at [email protected]. I’m looking for a league with a ton of action. I like to trade a lot. I like trading and playing more than winning, so if you play in a league like that and need an owner, let me know.
1. Aaron Rodgers, Packers
Easy call. Rodgers is the best quarterback in the NFL and he’s only 28.
2. Cam Newton, Panthers
In the past two years all Newton has done is win the starting QB job at Auburn, the Heisman Trophy, a National Title and NFL Rookie of the Year. He’s a special player.
3. Matthew Stafford, Lions
He’s only 24 and emerging as one of the NFL’s best quarterbacks. Others would kill to have his weapons. If Stafford stays healthy he’ll put up eye-popping numbers over the next few years.
4. Drew Brees, Saints
He’s 33 but Brees obviously showed no signs of slowing down last season. He has a few more big years in him, assuming Roger Goodell doesn’t suspend the entire Saints organization for the remainder of the decade.
5. Eli Manning, Giants
At 31 he’s just now reaching the prime of his career. I see Eli only getting better and the Giants have surrounded him with arguably the best young group of receivers in the NFL.
6. Tom Brady, Patriots
Others may have Brady a little higher but after working in New England for a few years I got the feeling Brady isn’t going to play until he’s 42. I think he has four more years in him, albeit really good years.
7. Philip Rivers, Chargers
I’m one of the biggest Rivers’ fans on the planet. I think this guy is one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL and I expect him to have a big bounce back season in 2012. Rivers has many more productive years left in that awkward throwing motion of his.
8. Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers
Big Ben seems like he’s been playing since the 70s but in reality he’s only 30. Here’s a call: The Steelers finally put the offense on Roethlisberger’s shoulders and he’s one of the top fantasy quarterbacks over the next couple of years. Great value at No. 8.
9. Matt Ryan, Falcons
I’m still waiting for Ryan to take that next step. He puts up solid numbers but Ryan has to stop checking down so much. Ryan has great weapons and now he has to trust them to make plays in big games. I’m just afraid Ryan isn’t going to get much better than he is right now.
10. Andrew Luck, Colts
Luck has all the skills to be a great NFL quarterback for many years to come. Now the Colts just need to keep building a team around him and he’ll be a fantasy stud.
11. Robert Griffin III, Redskins
I wanted to rank Griffin higher but it’s tough with all the talented quarterbacks in the NFL. He should be a fantasy star from Day 1. Griffin is already a good pocket quarterback and his ability to run only adds value for fantasy owners.
12. Tony Romo, Cowboys
People forget that Romo is already 32-years old. He’s a good NFL quarterback but if Dallas doesn’t win soon (and they won’t) Romo will end up being the scapegoat for Jerry Jones’ failures as a general manager.
13. Sam Bradford, Rams
Bradford could be a steal this low. The guy has been given nothing to work with so far in St. Louis but that’s slowly changing. Don’t give up on Bradford yet. If he can stay healthy behind that offensive line Bradford still has the talent to be a very productive NFL quarterback.
14. Mike Vick, Eagles
Vick is already 30 and his style of play is a red flag in dynasty leagues. Remember, Newton is built like a tank, where guys like Griffin and Vick are built like sprinters. Vick is still very productive but he always comes with risk.
15. Jay Cutler, Bears
Cutler is only 29 and still has some good years ahead of him. However, I’ve lived with Type I Diabetes for over 30 years and as Cutler gets older it’s going to be more difficult for him to keep up with the grueling 365-day workload in the NFL and play at a high level. Just something to think about long-term.
16. Andy Dalton, Bengals
I believe Dalton will actually be a better NFL quarterback than a fantasy quarterback. Still, he has some good young weapons in A.J. Green, Jermaine Gresham and Jordan Shipley. Dalton should be a solid fantasy quarterback for many years, the question is will he make it into that elite group?
17. Jake Locker, Titans
Locker has a lot of potential and even if he doesn’t begin 2012 as the Titans starter, he’ll end up there and be entrenched for 2013. His combination of a strong arm and the ability to run is intriguing from a fantasy perspective.
18. Josh Freeman, Bucs
I didn’t like Freeman coming out of college. I thought he would be a huge bust. He proved me wrong as a rookie but then regressed last year. This is a big season for Freeman with a new regime now in Tampa Bay. I have a hunch Freeman plays much better than he did in 2011.
19. Matt Schaub, Texans
Some probably have Schaub rated higher but I see him as being a big tease. Schaub will always be solid but I question if he’ll ever take the next step. Having guys like Jacoby Jones to throw to over the years certainly hasn’t helped Schaub elevate his game.
20. Peyton Manning, Broncos
Remember when I said I don’t believe Brady will play until he was 42? Manning is just the opposite. He may play until he’s 60. If he’s healthy Manning should at least have 2-3 more productive years left in him for keeper league owners.
21. Brandon Weeden, Browns
Weeden has the intelligence and physical skills to be successful in the NFL. What he doesn’t have is receivers. The Browns need to do a better job of giving Weeden more weapons around him or he’s going to struggle.
22. Christian Ponder, Vikings
Ponder showed some flashes last year but like Weeden, he doesn’t have a lot of weapons to work with right now. Leslie Frazier will get fired at the end of this season, if not sooner, so hopefully Ponder can survive until a better coaching staff arrives.
23. Joe Flacco, Ravens
I don’t see Flacco ever being a reliable fantasy starter. Every time owners try and make him one they e-mail me asking why their team has started 0-4. He’ll spend his career being one of the better fantasy backups though.
24. Ryan Tannehill, Dolphins
Tannehill is a tough guy to judge because we simply haven’t seen a lot from him. One thing in his corner is new coach Joe Philbin proved to be very effective working with quarterbacks in Green Bay. My guess is Tannehill will be starting in Miami at some point this year. That will give us a glimpse of what’s to come in 2013.
25. Alex Smith, 49ers
Smith became a solid fantasy backup last season and if he’s ever going to take the next step, it will be this year. Smith has never had this many weapons to work with before. The smart money though is on Smith remaining more of a game manager for the 49ers and a decent backup for fantasy owners.
I certainly think Smith is the better option this season. I just don’t see him ever being more than a fantasy backup though. Weeden may end up being something more down the line if things break right for him. If we are just talking about this year though I would much rather have Smith. Be careful with that strength of schedule bullshit. It’s based on last year’s teams. It has nothing to do with how teams will fair this season. At this time last year the 49ers were considered a .500 team at best and they almost won the Super Bowl. The Jets were considered Super Bowl contenders and they didn’t make the playoffs. No one thought much of the Bengals defense and no one thought the Packers would have statistically the worst pass defense of all-time. Houston had the worst pass defense in 2010 and jumped to No. 3 last year. I can go on and on. That strength of schedule stuff means nothing right now. Teams change too much from year to year now. Don’t fall into that trap. It’s the most overrated category fantasy owners look at this early in the process. Thanks for the feedback.
Re: Matt Ryan, look back at his game logs from last season after ATL’s week 8 bye. Kind of looks like he’s already made that jump that you’ve been waiting for, no? I don’t know which website you can use to rank guys from certain weeks on but his #’s look really good and I bet he was close to a top 5 fantasy QB from week 9 on. I think most people (including yourself and myself until just recently) are overlooking just how good Ryan was over the 2nd half of the season (not counting week 17′s meaningless game). Ryan’s just hitting his prime and is surrounded by huge talent at WR, TE, & RB. He’s a guy that I’d clump into that Rivers, Big Ben, and Cutler group that you can wait on until around rd 7/8 or later for your starting QB - giving me more reason to want to wait on QB this year.
I actually did go over his game logs recently and I will admit they were more impressive than I remember at the time. My problem with Ryan may be I get a lot of e-mails from people about their team and last year it seemed that a number of owners that were struggling had him as their starting QB. That probably subconsciously alters my perception of him. I think he deserves to be in the conversation with big Ben and Cutler for sure. I wouldn’t go quite as far as to say Rivers because I still consider him an elite fantasy QB. He’ll need to have another down year before I jump off his bandwagon. For some reason I feel Ryan is a QB that ends up with good numbers but during the fantasy season people are always complaining about him being their QB. I may be wrong.